Friday the 13th, 2029

[pipme]

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/science_technology/story.jsp?story=611219

......The latest revisions of the calculations have refined the asteroid's orbital path to suggest that it will pass our planet by the relative whisper of 36,000km (22,600 miles) - well within the orbit of geostationary satellites and about a tenth of the distance to the Moon. This is by far the largest of the top 10 closest asteroids recorded by.......

That's it then, almost time to 'Ring down. "Finished with engines."
24 yrs -- 22800 miles -- Did they use Excel ? oooerrr ! "Nah, just a guesstimate mate, she'll be right." Rule 22

 

[kendor]

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/science_technology/story.jsp?story=611219

......The latest revisions of the calculations have refined the asteroid's orbital path to suggest that it will pass our planet by the relative whisper of 36,000km (22,600 miles) - well within the orbit of geostationary satellites and about a tenth of the distance to the Moon. This is by far the largest of the top 10 closest asteroids recorded by.......

That's it then, almost time to 'Ring down. "Finished with engines."
24 yrs -- 22800 miles -- Did they use Excel ? oooerrr ! "Nah, just a guesstimate mate, she'll be right." Rule 22

thinking back to the post "transit of venus" and the complicated equations used and then the statement at the end that the calcs are just an estimate does worry you when these sort of things are talked about.
Let's hope for our childrens sake as i doubt me or thee will be around then, that the calcs are out the opposite way and it misses by a greater margin than that.

 

[AdamW]

Happens all the time, it is just not possible to track something accurately enough when that far away. So, the errors are massive. As time goes on they make more observations and the errors get smaller, as the article mentions there was a 1 in 60 chance back in 2004.

That would have been a massive great corridor, several hundred thousand miles wide, of which the probability of it hitting the earth was 1 in 60. Pretty close by astronomical standards, but I won't be worrying until nearer the day.

Interactions between the asteroid and other asteroids between now and then could significantly change its path and it might not even pass close.

I'll be sure to buy a bigger telescope before 2029!

 

[kendor]

Happens all the time, it is just not possible to track something accurately enough when that far away. So, the errors are massive. As time goes on they make more observations and the errors get smaller, as the article mentions there was a 1 in 60 chance back in 2004.

That would have been a massive great corridor, several hundred thousand miles wide, of which the probability of it hitting the earth was 1 in 60. Pretty close by astronomical standards, but I won't be worrying until nearer the day.

Interactions between the asteroid and other asteroids between now and then could significantly change its path and it might not even pass close.

I'll be sure to buy a bigger telescope before 2029!

let's hope for the best then

 

[Scoby_Beasley]

That's it then, almost time to 'Ring down. "Finished with engines."
24 yrs -- 22800 miles -- Did they use Excel ? oooerrr ! "Nah, just a guesstimate mate, she'll be right." Rule 22

With a fit blokes average life expectancy at 74, me, I do everything wrong (the only good habits are the bad ones !!) I can sleep easy tonight !!!

 

[pipme]

Surely the M25 is the 'doubles' corridor on the celestial dartboard ?
Make a decent size sink for the prospective flood waters from the Thames !