Guessing the weather, with solar installation.

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Llanfair Caereinion, Nr Welshpool
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Before and after second battery.jpg Top with 3.2 kWh battery, bottom with 6.4 kWh battery. Clearly an improvement, unlikely to run out of off-peak or solar on most days, the 3.2 kWh gave me around 5 hours after off-peak or solar stopped, but 6.4 kWh clearly around double, so most days will reach the off-peak turn on time before the battery runs out.

But yesterday for example 1729190416516.png just no solar, and battery needs some solar to reach when next off-peak starts. Now I only need two hours to recharge batteries from the off-peak, so I could switch off charging two hours earlier, but with bad days I would lose out.

2 hours = approx 1.4 kWh so only talking about the difference between the two rates, so 22.36p per kWh or 31p approx extra if we run out of battery, but loss is since not paid for export, hard to work out, today 4.5 kWh given away.

I am thinking, just give away the supless, but others must have same problem, so interested to hear what other people do?
 
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I put my coordinates and PV system details in to Home Assistant and it uses the weather forecast to predict solar production in the energy dashboard.
Never actually tested the forecast against reality. This is what it says for tomorrow:
1729194474952.png
 
I think I need to rethink how and when we use power. The three heavy users were a problem, that's the dish washer, washing machine, and tumble drier, as during the day, if switched on too late, it would result in using peak power latter in the day.

Now that is only likely to happen if we have a bad solar day, so using the three during the day, on average will work out better.
 
1729352164080.pngI look at yesterday, and today, yesterday after 13:00 we lost most of the solar, and we ran on battery until 23:17 when at 10% it stopped discharging, but today 16:30 and 10 kWh exported, battery full, still exporting at 1 kW.
 
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I think I need to rethink how and when we use power. The three heavy users were a problem, that's the dish washer, washing machine, and tumble drier, as during the day, if switched on too late, it would result in using peak power latter in the day.

Now that is only likely to happen if we have a bad solar day, so using the three during the day, on average will work out better.

Logically, I would think that using it, when it is being generated, rather than storing it, is always best. Storing it in batteries, then the process of changing the DC back to mains voltage, has to involve large losses.
 
I think I need to rethink how and when we use power. The three heavy users were a problem, that's the dish washer, washing machine, and tumble drier, as during the day, if switched on too late, it would result in using peak power latter in the day.

Now that is only likely to happen if we have a bad solar day, so using the three during the day, on average will work out better.
I think the tumble drier will be the only significant one. My washing machine runs the heating element for about ten minutes on a hot cotton wash.

The dishwasher less time, but it heats up the main wash and the final rinse. Each less than 10 mins.

I look out of the window before using the drier.
 
I think the tumble drier will be the only significant one.
Not sure, only 600 watt, but for 2.5 hours, however not always on for whole cycle, it often starts a mark/space ratio near the end of the cycle.
Logically, I would think that using it, when it is being generated, rather than storing it, is always best. Storing it in batteries, then the process of changing the DC back to mains voltage, has to involve large losses.
I see your point, however solar today
1729367990557.png
the problem are the drops outs when clouds come over, so I rely on the battery to bridge the gaps. And yesterday 1729368181200.png the way the sun failed in the afternoon, I ran out of battery before the end of the day. Yesterdays 7.8 kWh and today 19.6 kWh, but in the morning both days seemed similar. It was only after 13:00 that I lost the sun.

It is the purple line I watch, state of charge, ideally I want 10% left at 01:00, but the closer I get to 01:00 the better, clearly it is better for my heavy users the three washing machines to be run during the day, as at the moment day solar is free, as not paid for export, so better running the machines during the day.

However, if I misjudge, then it will cost more than running overnight at off-peak rate. 31.31-8.95=22.36p per kWh if I miscalculate how much sun, it does not seem much, but comparing Sept 23 to Sept 24 there was around £20 difference, mainly due to having off-peak now.

I have approximately 22 hours of battery power, clearly it depends on what I have been running, but if the heavy users, oven, hob, shower, dishwasher, washing machine and tumble drier are not being used, then if battery full at 15:00 then it will last with no more sun until 01:00 when off-peak kicks in.

However, if full at that point, then likely I will also be exporting power for no return. So tomorrow met office forecast
1729369889251.png
looking at that, since sun 14:00 to 17:00 I should have plenty of solar power when it matters, never get much in the morning, due to direction at which solar panels face, but it is rare to run out of the off-peak power in the morning. Report is for Wrexham, and I am south of that. But tomorrow I will report what actually happened.
 
However, if full at that point, then likely I will also be exporting power for no return. So tomorrow met office forecast

She was collecting the washing today, ready to pop in, when an email arrived, notifying me of a 'free hour of use, tomorrow, from 13:00 to 14:00, so I suggested she puts it on hold, until then. An hour, should see two loads washed, at no cost.
 
At the moment 11:49 am, charging battery at 960 watts, and it is sitting at 67%, but as to turning on washer or drier, still not sure, if I do not use high powered items, then a full battery will last around 10 hours, but one hopes one is not relying on battery until around 4 to 5 pm, and it will likely be fully charged at around 1 pm, so around 11 am one needs to decide if one is likely to get afternoon sun. This is the problem.
1729422176307.png

The drier was started when we had good solar, I had fully recharged the battery with solar, then the sun went in, 1729422379586.png what I want is afternoon sun, and it is a gamble.
 
If you were on Agile, you would be filling your boots today, because it's only above 2.3p/kWh once today between 0430-1600.
 
The cooked food at tea time, is I would say the main problem, from 5 am to 12 noon, there are 7 hours, but from 4 pm to 1 am there are 9 hours, so it is the afternoon where the system is stretched, before noon there is no problem.

I want to do as little as possible to keep bills down. And I have to accept sometimes it is not worth the effort to gain a few p.

But the whole idea of the second battery was to reduce how often I use peak power, come April I will look to move supplier, and hopefully get paid for exported power, but the selection is not as straight forward as I thought.

For example, I heard that Octopus had excellent rates, but then found I can't have the EV rate, but can with British Gas, as I don't own an EV, and Economy 7 rates are nowhere near as good as EV rates, so not comparing like with like.

It does seem rather unfair, that those who are stuck with storage radiators have to pay so much more as those with EV's when both are using power at around the same time. As to if government or the supply companies, I don't know, but all seems to be bent in the favour of the rich, those with solar panels, batteries, and EV's. Even VIP parking spaces for EV owners.

However, I can't change what the government or supply companies offer, but I can try to use what is on offer to the best advantage. Enough battery to span off-peak to off-peak is going silly, but I use between 12 and 18 kWh per day, I can get around 7 kWh off-peak, so want between 5 and 11 kWh from solar, today I got 12.5 kWh but out of that, 4.8 kWh were exported for no payment.

The problem with this
1729439560590.png
is it does not show how much imported off-peak and how much peak. The app says yesterday cost me £1.68, without the standing charge £1.09, and I imported 10.71 kWh, so an average of 10.1774p per kWh, off-peak is 8.95p per kWh so very little peak power imported. And that it would seem down to my inverter not picking up the load fast enough.

I could have stopped my battery taking charge earlier, say 3 am instead of 5 am, and then I would have exported less. So could have reduced export by around 1.5 kWh but would have still exported 3 kWh, and talking about around 15p I could have saved, big deal, if I get it wrong and import peak, then all that gain lost.

So however flexible I get, which I could have got my legs up like her, even when younger, but seems can't realistically reduce my bill, and doing my gardening at night using off-peak power, forget it.
 

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