Hard Brexit - food, fuel, drug shortages

[SirGalahad]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/...rial-_-thesundaytimes-_-Unspecified-_-TWITTER

Britain would be hit with shortages of medicine, fuel and food within a fortnight if the UK tries to leave the European Union without a deal, according to a Doomsday Brexit scenario drawn up by senior civil servants for David Davis.

Whitehall has begun contingency planning for the port of Dover to collapse “on day one” if Britain crashes out of the EU, leading to critical shortages of supplies.

This will be disasterous for the economy and people - how many deaths do you want on your hands? What will you do if there is no food in the shops? With our just in time system of manufacturing any supply shock will lead to shortages.

 

[Lower]

If you read the article, this was effectively wargaming. The civil servants were instructed to draw up 3 different scenarios, one of which was a catastrophic Doomsday brexit.

This plan is not a prediction of what the civil servants think Brexit is going to be like. It is a planning tool to help them put plans in place to make sure that the doomsday scenario doesn't happen.

 

[Deleted member 63160]

If you read the article, this was effectively wargaming. The civil servants were instructed to draw up 3 different scenarios, one of which was a catastrophic Doomsday brexit.

This plan is not a prediction of what the civil servants think Brexit is going to be like. It is a planning tool to help them put plans in place to make sure that the doomsday scenario doesn't happen.

Apparently the planes will all fall out of the sky and the sun will move to a different galaxy too

 

[SirGalahad]

If you read the article, this was effectively wargaming. The civil servants were instructed to draw up 3 different scenarios, one of which was a catastrophic Doomsday brexit.

This plan is not a prediction of what the civil servants think Brexit is going to be like. It is a planning tool to help them put plans in place to make sure that the doomsday scenario doesn't happen.

Doomsday hard Brexit is what we are heading for. So they are correctly drawing up plans when there is a supply shock.

So what happens when our buffer runs out?

 

[SirGalahad]

Apparently the planes will all fall out of the sky and the sun will move to a different galaxy too

Simple facts if you can't get your goods through customs what will happen? This counts for both exports and imports.

 

[Lower]

Doomsday hard Brexit is what we are heading for. So they are correctly drawing up plans when there is a supply shock.

So what happens when our buffer runs out?

I'm not sure if your misunderstanding is deliberate to try and scaremonger about a catastrophic brexit or if you just need things explaining in a simple way

No-one knows what type of brexit we are heading for yet so the government is being diligent in planning for a variety of scenarios. The doomsday scenario is highly unlikely because it would be akin to a declaration of war on the UK by the EU. It would mean bigger effective economic sanctions on the UK by the EU than the EU has imposed on Russia or Syria.

Not only that, we would have had some advance warning that the EU was planning to pull up the drawbridge and would already have had the option to start sourcing food, medicines, essential supplies etc from all the other countries in the world that aren't in the EU.

Doomsday scenario remainers always seem to forget that trade between the UK and the rest of the EU flows in two directions.

 

[Lower]

Simple facts if you can't get your goods through customs what will happen? This counts for both exports and imports.

Buy those goods from a source where customs still functions normally, ie non EU countries.

The EU isn't going to want that.

 

[Deleted member 63160]

Simple facts if you can't get your goods through customs what will happen? This counts for both exports and imports.

Keep buggering on old chap. It'll be fine. Realistically it's a done deal now... for the likes of us I mean. What will be will be. I only voted Brexit cos I found the leavers less irritating than the remainers. Likely we stay in the EU, things carry on as they are and the change is in name only. I've always expected this. I think the remainers will get their way, ultimately. Hardcore Brexiteers can say "yep we're out" and knock one out in celebration. Hardcore remainers can say "told you so, na na na na nah" and feel good good that nothing changed. The ruling classes will have kept the lid on things yet again. Either way, if you're broke on benefits you'll still be bottom of the pile, well not as bottom as someone who grafts to be broke but that's another issue. If you're rich you'll still be top of the pile. If you're a Surrey/Hants murdering plumber you'll still have a few gaffs to let when you retire and enjoy being "upper working class".
IMHO, which I know counts for naff all...GB is still a current force.

 

[IWalkLikeHimaMartian]

To put the 'report and planning' into perspective.
There are three scenarios planned for in the effects of a no-deal: mild, severe and apocalyptic.
The middle of the three scenarios, the severe, (not the doomsday as lower suggests) suggests the probability of shortages of food, medicine and fuel within a fortnight. The port of Dover collapsing on day 1.

We do not know what the apocalyptic scenario suggests (or doomsday as lower refers to it.) Maybe planes falling out of the sky, well not being allowed into EU airspace anyway, so they will have to go via USA. I am not sure about the sun moving to another galaxy though because that would affect the EU also.

The EU borders will continue as normal, albeit with far less traffic from the UK, much of it might be in a shambles, so there may well be further delays on arrival in EU, or even being refused permission to enter because the produce is no longer fit for consumption..
Although if lower's suggestion is correct (declaration of war ) maybe the planes will be shot out of the sky.

 

[sodthisforfun]

You'd think we could've learned with this type of 'guesswork' story from the referendum.
Nice to see both 'sides' are still at the scaremongering game.

 

[IWalkLikeHimaMartian]

You'd think we could've learned with this type of 'guesswork' story from the referendum.
Nice to see both 'sides' are still at the scaremongering game.

I thought the Brexit bunch always were "at the scaremongering game"

Whitehall has begun contingency planning for the port of Dover to collapse “on day one” if Britain crashes out of the EU, leading to critical shortages of supplies.
Last month officials in Davis’s Brexit department and the departments of health and transport drew up scenarios for a no-deal Brexit — a mild one, a severe one and one dubbed “Armageddon”.
A source said: “In the second scenario, not even the worst, the port of Dover will collapse on day one.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/revealed-plans-for-doomsday-no-deal-brexit-02mld2jg2

 

[ellal]

No-one knows what type of brexit we are heading for yet so the government is being diligent in planning for a variety of scenarios.

And yet the government were equally 'diligent' in fighting tooth and nail to refuse to undertake/prevent the release of similar planning documents before the vote!

The doomsday scenario is highly unlikely because it would be akin to a declaration of war on the UK by the EU.

It's the UK leaving, not the UK getting kicked out.
So if you're looking for a 'declaration of war', then you have the wrong angle.
Because many brexiteers and brexit agitators/leave campaign funders have expressed a wish that the EU disintegrates

What it means in practical terms if there is no deal, is that vast number of standards between their trading bloc and the UK will no longer apply.
So the EU would have every right to simply safeguard their standards/rules.

And leavers seem to have forgotten how quickly chaos spread across the country when a single product was targeted for disruption of supplies during the fuel protests!

 

[JohnD]

Like the Milennium Bug, the consequences of not having a deal are so dreadful that it needs lots of serious people to put lots of serious work into finding and developing solutions.

Like the Milennium Bug, if all the work is successfully done, over a period of ten or twenty years, ignorant people will think, and say, that there was never a problem and it was all a fuss about nothing.

Since the UK hasn't decided what it wants to do yet, serious business is taking the precaution of setting up shadow offices outside the UK so they can continue to function. You will recall that Pig-boy Cameron took the precaution of getting another job.

Quitters like Buffoon are not serious people, and rely on waffle and bumbling in the hope that somebody cleverer than them will find a solution, build, test, agree and implement it. That hasn't happened yet.

In most cases, nobody knows what the arrangements will be, because the UK hasn't been able to decide what it wants.

Probably we will end up with one of the four available options.

Quitters have never said which one they want, so nobody can do more than guess which one to try and prepare for.

The UK Parliament has a duty and the power to accept or reject the Brexit Omnishambles. Thank the Lords they will not be prevented from performing that duty.

 

[Deleted member 63160]

Scaremongering, various outcome eventualities aside, anyone else agree that arguing like 12 year olds in the playground on websites won't make a blind bit of difference to the final outcome?

 

[IWalkLikeHimaMartian]

Occasionally, even children come out with pearls of wisdom.