Is Russia destined to become another North Korea?

[diy_fun_uk]

Hopefully it's okay to commence another thread on what's going on between Russia and Ukraine. I've done so because my question is quite specific.

The USSR was in existence until 1991. It transitioned from a socialist to democratic (of sorts) state, although it's plain to see Putin has been reining back on this in more recent years. I appreciate many (most?) would assert Russia has never, in reality, been anything near a genuine democratic country. However that's not the central point of my thread.

My question is this. Surely for the people of Russia the outlook can now be nothing but bleak? Assuming sanctions and the general direction of isolationism being imposed on Russia remain in place for the foreseeable future, the best they can hope for is to become once more a USSR of sorts in terms of how they are governed and their day to day lives.

Is Russia destined to be viewed by the free world in the same way we view North Korea? If not, why not?

 

[charliegolf]

In the short term, maybe. But a period leading up to, then succeeding a regime change* would leave the door open for Russia to rejoin the wider world. Maybe

*so could be next week or 20 years.

 

[JohnD]

China loosens the strings....




"China-based AIIB freezes lending to Russia and Belarus over Ukraine war

Development bank’s move threatens to strain relations between Beijing and Moscow

The Beijing-based bank said it would ‘safeguard its financial integrity’ and assess the impact of the Ukraine conflict on its operations and members’ economies

Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank has suspended all current and pending business relating to Russia and Belarus following the outbreak of conflict in Ukraine.

The decision by the development bank threatens to strain ties between China and Russia, which are close trading partners but whose relationship has come under scrutiny following Vladimir Putin’s military operation in Ukraine. China is the bank’s largest shareholder.

The Beijing-based bank on Thursday said it would “safeguard its financial integrity” and assess the impact of the Ukraine war on its operations and members’ economies.

AIIB was founded with an official stance of political neutrality. However, its move to freeze lending to Russia and Belarus demonstrates the growing pressure on global financial institutions to cut ties with Russian projects and individuals over the war in Ukraine."

ft.com

 

[IT Minion]

My question is this. Surely for the people of Russia the outlook can now be nothing but bleak? Assuming sanctions and the general direction of isolationism being imposed on Russia remain in place for the foreseeable future, the best they can hope for is to become once more a USSR of sorts in terms of how they are governed and their day to day lives.

As people here will tell you, sometimes it's worth your nation suffering financially in the short term for national pride, sovereignty and security.

As to the rest, I'd say more like Iran than North Korea. North Korea doesn't have any vital export commodities.

 

[Doug99]

The Chinese will be shocked at how quickly the West has banded together to introduce economic and commercial sanctions on Russia. The blanket ban on Russian participation in international sport is also significant.

China is stepping back from supporting Putin's invasion of Ukraine, as you could imagine the impact on China's economy and sporting prestige if the West threatened similar sanctions.

 

[transam]

assuming that this entire caper does not escalate further

(military escalation )

the question is how long will the west remain united in these sanctions

long term ??? Un likely imo

 

[transam]

Imo one of putins problems is information that he cannot control
?

most Russians have mobile phone tec ( ?) most Ukrainians have freinds or family in Russia and they communicate

recent example videos on line showing captured Russian troops
Given a phone and told to ring there mothers ?

afaik North Korea is able to control info

get caught with a radio and you are likely to get executed ??

 

[Deleted member 18243]

Russia is vast and has all sorts of resources. Does it need much from the West?

 

[^woody^]

The question should be "Is the Earth destined to become another moon".

I hove doubts Putin will let himself or Russia be reduced to the likes of North Korea.

 

[JOHNBOY42]

If you look at some of the deals.negotiations been going on between russia and china before the invasion it will open your eyes ..... China is sitting on the fence but now that they have seen the backlash are slowly getting off the fence and moving away from russia.... my own opinion is that this invasion will end soon with diplomacy

 

[^woody^]

If you look at some of the deals.negotiations been going on between russia and china before the invasion it will open your eyes ..... China is sitting on the fence but now that they have seen the backlash are slowly getting off the fence and moving away from russia.... my own opinion is that this invasion will end soon with diplomacy

Lavrov is making more demands on Europe, NATO and Finland and Sweden, despite the war not going well for them and NATO seeing how crap Russian armed forces actually are.

They want "security" and may well be emboldened to demand it, and as their conventional forces are crap, may well resort to their unconventional, nuclear forces. Why bother with diplomacy if you know that your demands won't/can't be met.

And as we all know, you can't even trust them to keep any agreement they may make!

 

[Mottie]

Russia is vast and has all sorts of resources. Does it need much from the West?

Sun and Gambling I think!
Out near the villa in Spain, a large casino opened a few years ago. A new development complex sprung up dead opposite. Full of Russians. They're in the casino every night. We looked around it when it was being built and even the sales people were Russian.


Google Earth Link


https://earth.app.goo.gl/QdC98T
#googleearth

 

[diy_fun_uk]

Imo one of putins problems is information that he cannot control?
most Russians have mobile phone tec ( ?) most Ukrainians have freinds or family in Russia and they communicate
recent example videos on line showing captured Russian troops Given a phone and told to ring there mothers ?
afaik North Korea is able to control info
get caught with a radio and you are likely to get executed ??

I agree, at present, the wider population has access to media North Koreans can only dream of. However, should this drag on, surely Russia would clamp down (technically) on access to non state media as much as it could. It's already starting. I'm not sure how successful this would be (I read people saying if you have a vpn in place, bob's your uncle in terms of accessing free world internet) however I'm not sure how accurate that is i.e. if it's quite as straightforward as that.

 

[diy_fun_uk]

Russia is vast and has all sorts of resources. Does it need much from the West?

This has been discussed more than a few times on various news progs. Although they won't be left with much choice but to toe the proverbial line, it's known that many modern day Russians, a so-called middle class Russia, enjoy western aspects in their day to day lives. The longer they don't have access to this, the more irate they will become. Assuming they aren't ardent Putin supporters that is.

I suspect older Russians (that were around pre 1991) will slip back into 'basic sustenance' mode if need be. However might not be as easy for those Russians that have only ever known a more comfortable life.

 

[AngleEyes]

The USSR was in existence until 1991. It transitioned from a socialist to democratic (of sorts) state, although it's plain to see Putin has been reining back on this in more recent years. I appreciate many (most?) would assert Russia has never, in reality, been anything near a genuine democratic country.

I'm not sure that USSR was ever really communist, or that it is becoming increasingly communist now. I'd describe it as Fascist.
The state is of the utmost importance, and everyone else, and everything else is subservient to the state.
Look at the value of life in modern day Russia. Look at how citizens are free to trade in the global market place. Look at the riches of some compared to the poor. how can it possibly be described as communist or socialist?

What does fascism mean in simple terms?

1 often capitalized : a political philosophy, movement, or regime that exalts nation and often race above the individual and that stands for a centralized autocratic government headed by a dictatorial leader, severe economic and social regimentation, and forcible suppression of opposition.
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/fascism
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