ONS estimate of school COVID

[JohnD]

The office of National Statistics has analysed random test results, and estimates that edit: one in 14 of secondary school pupils are currently infected.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...n-secondary-schools-in-england-ons-data-shows

No doubt they will be travelling in buses and going into shops, as well as meeting friends and family.

Luckily most British adults have been vaccinated and have a good chance of escaping serious illness or death.

The unvaccinated will sadly not be so lucky.

We will know in a few weeks.

There is a race to get people vaccinated before they catch the disease.


Edited incorrect percentage

 

[Notch7]

The unvaccinated will sadly not be so lucky

Ellal……..are you ok?

 

[Mottie]

Some on here will disagree but that’s the main reason I’ve chosen to not work with that group since the outbreak. Teaching on cars, you are working in very close proximity under a bonnet or under a car. It’s bad enough with those kids that are under the control and do as their parents say regarding protecting others with the wearing of masks, washing of hands etc but those that are living in care homes or being fostered often have no effective parental control. I am working primarily with adults at the moment and I’m beginning to doubt whether I will ever go back to working with school aged children again. If I were a regular secondary school teacher, I'd have to seriously consider whether I’d want to be in front of 30 unmasked kids in a closed environment if 25% of them could be carriers.

 

[jacko555]

How do you get 25% from the headline "1 in 14". Isn't it 7.1%

 

[JohnD]

Odd that UK is doing so badly

Though it was well known that sending kids back to school would bring a surge in infections

 

[Ihavenojob]

How are we in the UK testing and measuring covid, do we do it differently, or is a case that we are so overcrowded we spread it easier ?

 

[AngleEyes]

How are we in the UK testing and measuring covid, do we do it differently, or is a case that we are so overcrowded we spread it easier ?

Answers in the same link.

 

[Justin Passing]

We're behind with vaccines. Claiming 40% today but that'll be a lie.
One month ago the EU were well ahead of us:
"France too has been moving quickly with 66% of those aged 12 to 17 now single jabbed, and 52% fully vaccinated. By October the country's health pass - or pass sanitaire - will be extended to under-18s, meaning.... "(BBC)

Masks are worn more in eg France, where only primary schools have the requirement removed,

They still send classes home if there are infections. We only send the one kid home.
LF testing in schools isn't done particularly well, so it would be expected to miss about half the positive cases. It only catches about two thirds if done perfectly. It varies by make. There are some US, some Chinese, some EU...

Kids in schools here are not being told to wear masks. I posted Monday about this.

Masks DO make some difference - much evidence.

Vallance said we need to move early.


Oh look we're F'ing it up again.


Teachers are on the whole vaccinated but protection will be dropping a bit now, but some wil have to self-isolate. Teachers can't wear masks, certainly not N95 protective ones.
We can expect some schools to effectively close, at least partially, while still trying to uphold the govt mantra trying to maintain the myth that we've beaten the virus.

The impact on the physical health of the kids is small by comparison with the population. The number of deaths in that age group is tiny, though even more regrettable perhaps. Ask a teacher what the kids' mental health is like right now, though. Many are not doing well at all.

 

[Ihavenojob]

Answers in the same link.

So it's guesswork then.

 

[IT Minion]

So it's guesswork then.

The only way anyone could know for sure would be to have an absolutely identical UK that somehow decided to vary one of the factors. Then another dozen to try the others.

Knowing is impossible, modeling can be enough to be very confident.

 

[EFLImpudence]

modeling can be enough to be very confident.

Confident is one thing - correct is another.

 

[Ihavenojob]

Confident is one thing - correct is another.

True, pub quiz the other day,confident of winning, but I didn't.

 

[IT Minion]

True, pub quiz the other day,confident of winning, but I didn't.

This isn't you cracking open a tub of playdoh and eating it. This is modeling with supercomputers and more PhDs than you can shake a stick at.

Anyone who demands and expects a definite answer that doesn't have a lot of 'we think', 'it looks like', or 'we believe' statements doesn't understand what they're asking

 

[Ihavenojob]

This is modeling with supercomputers and more PhDs than you can shake a stick at.

Same ones they used to predict Labour winning the last election ?

 

[IT Minion]

Same ones they used to predict Labour winning the last election ?

I don't believe so, no.*

*see what I did there?