Stop worrying so much about brexit johnd and listen to this guy

[sooey]

He seems to know a thing or two....It may help you in your current distressed state.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...ver-jobs-and-investment-are-simple-fallacies/


https://www.theguardian.com/busines...ndum-leave-recession-predictions-imf-treasury


http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/696854/patrick-minford-brexit-economist-theresa-may-mark-carney

 

[tony1851]

Minford is almost certainly correct in maintaining that prices can come down to world prices outside the protectionist EU.
However, one thing which does concern me (even as a confirmed Brexiter) is his admission that more manufacturing could disappear due to lower prices
from competition with China and the F. East.

In particular, strategically important industries such as steel, ship- and vehicle building should - to an extent - be protected.
Quite how this would work in an open economy I don't know, but maybe they could be supported to a limited extent by funds saved
from not paying towards Junckers' drinks bill? But I certainly wouldn't want the country to go back to a situation in the 60s and 70s where
unions were too powerful.

 

[Himaginn]

Minford is almost certainly correct in maintaining that prices can come down to world prices outside the protectionist EU.

It's good that you agree with him.
And your qualifications and experience in macro-economics are:............?

 

[EFLImpudence]

unions were too powerful.

Only because the management was truly awful.

 

[tony1851]

Minford is almost certainly correct in maintaining that prices can come down to world prices outside the protectionist EU.

It's good that you agree with him.
And your qualifications and experience in macro-economics are:............?

I think it's self-evident that if you have no trade barriers, prices will be at world prices.

 

[Himaginn]

It's good that you agree with him.
And your qualifications and experience in macro-economics are:............?

I think it's self-evident that if you have no trade barriers, prices will be at world prices.

Yep, our prices for our goods will have to come down to world prices to be competitive.
That means our GDP will go down, our earnings will go down.
All that's assuming there are no trade barriers and that's a big IF, at the moment.
IF there are trade barriers, perhaps with EU, our customer base will be decimated and our prices/earnings will be dramatically reduced.
But Prof Patrick Minford thinks that will be OK.

You went on to say some industries could be protected.........
Protected wouldn't be the word I'd use. Subsidised, supported, state funded would be better descriptions.
Or the wages of the workforce could be cut to compensate for the drop in prices.

Anyway, Prof Patrick Minford has it all worked out, so no worries.

 

[woodbine]

All gone a bit quiet. Are we getting Brexit, or are the remoaners getting their way?

 

[tony1851]

All gone a bit quiet. Are we getting Brexit, or are the remoaners getting their way?

Yes, that is suspicious; maybe they are hoping that it will all quietly be forgotten?

 

[sooey]

Yep, our prices for our goods will have to come down to world prices to be competitive.
That means our GDP will go down, our earnings will go down.
All that's assuming there are no trade barriers and that's a big IF, at the moment.
IF there are trade barriers, perhaps with EU, our customer base will be decimated and our prices/earnings will be dramatically reduced.

And your qualifications and experience in macro-economics are:............?

Anyway, Prof Patrick Minford has it all worked out, so no worries.

Glad you feel reassured. He is a scholar after all.

 

[sooey]

All gone a bit quiet. Are we getting Brexit, or are the remoaners getting their way?

Remoans to be seen.

 

[transam]

Brexit will mean Brexit

the E.U will eventually fall apart.

Have another referendum in England only & vote the Scots out of the Union.

 

[woodbine]

All gone a bit quiet. Are we getting Brexit, or are the remoaners getting their way?

Yes, that is suspicious; maybe they are hoping that it will all quietly be forgotten?

Would have liked Nigel Farage to stay on as Ukip leader, until at least Article 50 starts. Would be good if the architect of the referendum would hold the government to account. Otherwise there's a danger that Brexit will get watered down and all the really difficult stuff like free movement won't really change at all. Can't blame him for getting out though. It was a thankless task and the pressure from rent-a-mob must be relentless.

 

[wobs]

Minford's analysis doesn't quite add up:
http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit06.pdf

"Conclusions


Alternative economic models have different advantages and drawbacks and are suited for
different purposes. Unfortunately, Minford’s model is inconsistent with two basic facts about
international trade; first that trade satisfies the gravity equation; and second, that the EU has
been trade-creating, not simply a tool for trade diversion.

Consequently, Minford’s model is not the right tool to use for predicting the consequences of

Brexit for trade and living standards. When we analyse the same scenario considered by
Minford using modern economics that incorporate advances in our understanding of
international trade data since the 1960s and a more realistic assessment of how UK ‘unilateral
trade liberalisation’ could actually work, we find (alongside just about everyone else) that
Brexit leads to a decline in UK living standards."

I honestly wish that it did add up. I would like the future to be better than predicted. But right now, the evidence points to us being worse off.

 

[Ihavenojob]

But right now, the evidence points to us being worse off.

A small price to pay.

 

[wobs]

A small price to pay.

What for? People losing their job, inflation, losing out on scientific research,..... what do we actually gain?
We already have our own sovereignty, (although we'll effectively lose that, as we'll be a rule taker rather than a rule maker generally), immigration won't change as we could have reduced it before but chose not to. We have various vetoes over various EU rules, we have our own currency (for now)...... what makes Brexit actually worth it? Do you actually want to join the Euro in say ten years?