Working out odds

[diy_fun_uk]

Me and my old mum were playing scrabble the other day. To determine who'd play first we both took a tile from the bag. I picked A and mum picked N, so I played first.

Second game, again I picked A and mum picked N.

How do you work out the odds of this happening?

 

[Brigadier]

Me and my old mum were playing scrabble the other day. To determine who'd play first we both took a tile from the bag. I picked A and mum picked N, so I played first.

Second game, again I picked A and mum picked N.

How do you work out the odds of this happening?

Depends if she's cottoned on to your blatant cheating

 

[Gordon Brown]

Me and my old mum were playing scrabble the other day. To determine who'd play first we both took a tile from the bag. I picked A and mum picked N, so I played first.

Second game, again I picked A and mum picked N.

How do you work out the odds of this happening?

approx 1:33,611

 

[denso13]

1:11 you would pick an A, 1:16.5 your mum would pick the N. 1:181.5 combined.

Same second time around.

 

[Odds]

1:11 you would pick an A, 1:16.5 your mum would pick the N. 1:181.5 combined.

Same second time around.

well, you had a productive afternoon.

 

[denso13]

well, you had a productive afternoon.

Yes, slow day...

 

[Trazor]

approx 1:33,611

Those odds are more or less correct, if you started out wanting to choose A and N both times.

But the first 2 letter picks are any 2 random letters, only then, when you match them the second time, the odds are as denso13 said, approximately 1 in 181.5.

 

[opps]

The odds of something like that happening can be calculated using "probability trees", that said, you picking a tile and your mum picking a tile are not mutually exclusive events. By that I mean that there is no reason why it would not happen again, and there are more than one of each tile.

Odds only work properly over very large number sets. Toss a coin infinitely, yeah heads should present half of the time, but there is no reason why you cannot flip a coin and end up with 10 heads in a row. Seriously, there is nothing to stop that happening- yeah the odds are 0.5 to the power of 10

From memory, the public lotto in Hungry had the same numbers two weeks in a row. One wouldn't "expect" that, but it happened, and there is no reason why it would not happen. The equivalent of their parliament wasted time trying to work out if it was a "fix".

Sometimes coincidences are just that, coincidences

If you and your mother were playing SNAP and you both dropped the ace of spades, I would be concerned..

 

[charliegolf]

Say there are only one of each letter.

Prob A = 1/26 If the A is not replaced (wouldn't be in this sitch), the prob of N =1/25

Prob of A and N = 1/26 times 1/25.

P=1/650

Not a big scrabbler, so assume there are multiple tiles as well as blanks. Just adjust the fraction.

 

[denso13]

so assume there are multiple tiles as well as blanks.

Yes, 100 tiles, 9 A's and 6 N's.