Water leak, suspect grouting failed

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As I was walking downstairs I noticed some bubbling paint on the wall. I've had issues with the shower letting water in before but it has been fine for a couple years now. I'm just wondering if someone can let me know from these pictures if it looks like the grout has failed and this looks like a point of ingress, and also the best way to repair this if so.
 

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Hard to tell exactly, looks suspicious. If you're able to remove the bath panel have a look if it's appears in similar location. Then confirm by running the shower onto the grout and see if any drips occur underneath
 
If you're able to remove the bath panel
with the shower letting water in
I think it's a shower cubicle, unless the tiles are on their 5th overlay and they're right to out to the edge of the lip ;)

@Tmdh89 - it looks like the grout may have cracked, if it has then only way to fix that is to raggle out the old grout and re-do with water proof grout. I always get suspicious of tiles and grout that cracks, the usual cause for that is movement, and that's the last thing a shower tray and cubicle install needs as 9 times out of 10 it'll re-occur.
 
Stuckinarut is right, it's a shower over a bath, the bath panel area was actually plasterboarded and tiled over, so in the past in order to fit new taps and waste I had to smash tiles and cut plasterboard out for access.

With my untrained eye the whole bathroom was done on a budget, I feel like the grout looks the way it does is because the plasterboard sucked the moisture out of the grout.

I think you've confirmed what I felt I needed to do, rake out the grout and replace.
 
Maybe grout is not the best sealant - you could use white silicone instead
 

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