Are Diesel Sales Doomed ?

[Avocet]

I don't think diesel is dead yet. There's an interesting article in this month's professional Engineering about it, in fact. It seems that the public are running round, brandishing their torches and pitchforks, looking for a witch to burn, but a new "Euro 6" diesel isn't that much different to a petrol engine in its NOx output and there are further plans to reduce it, bringing it into line with the limit for petrol engined vehicles. By all means, scrap Euro4 and older vehicles, but I see no reason to give up on the other environmental benefits of diesel just yet. Politicians only seem to be capable of worrying about one pollutant at a time. Give it another decade and CO2 will be public enemy No. 1 again....

 

[JohnD]

NOx

And what about particulates?

"Diesel exhausts emit two main pollutants: particulates and nitrogen dioxide (N02), and account for almost half the N02 and about 70 per cent of the particulates in London air."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/motoring...out-diesel-are-crystal-clear.-Its-deadly.html

"Extremely small particles of pollution have the potential to evade the lungs' protective filter system and end up deep in the body, scientists suggest."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-39710321

"Exhaust fumes from diesel engines do cause cancer, a panel of experts working for the World Health Organization says.
It concluded that the exhausts were definitely a cause of lung cancer and may also cause tumours in the bladder. "
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-18415532

"Stoke-on-Trent garages 'illegally remove car emissions filters'"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-stoke-staffordshire-29662760

"The most common exposure pathway is breathing the air that contains the diesel particulate matter. The fine and ultra fine particles are respirable which means that they can avoid many of the human respiratory system defense mechanisms and enter deeply into the lung."
https://www3.epa.gov/region1/eco/airtox/diesel.html

"The statistics about diesel are crystal clear. It’s deadly
Rigorous research over the past twenty years has proved the dangers of the fuel beyond all doubt "
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/motoring...out-diesel-are-crystal-clear.-Its-deadly.html

Look on the bright side, some good news is also being published.
"A new campaign by car makers claims modern diesel engines are clean and have reduced emissions, but experts say they are greenwashing the figures"
https://www.theguardian.com/environ...ars-been-unfairly-demonised-for-air-pollution

 

[Avocet]

And what about particulates?

"Diesel exhausts emit two main pollutants: particulates and nitrogen dioxide (N02), and account for almost half the N02 and about 70 per cent of the particulates in London air."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/motoring...out-diesel-are-crystal-clear.-Its-deadly.html

What about them? What percentage of those particulates come from Euro 5 or 6 diesels?

"Extremely small particles of pollution have the potential to evade the lungs' protective filter system and end up deep in the body, scientists suggest."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-39710321

"Exhaust fumes from diesel engines do cause cancer, a panel of experts working for the World Health Organization says.
It concluded that the exhausts were definitely a cause of lung cancer and may also cause tumours in the bladder. "
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-18415532

Yes, I think we all know that, thanks. Do you think what comes out of a petrol engine is actually GOOD for you? Petrol engines can produce any of the emissions a diesel engine can produce. Some in greater quanitites (like carbon monoxide), some in lower quantities (like oxides of nitrogen). It depends on the age and condition of the vehicle.

"Stoke-on-Trent garages 'illegally remove car emissions filters'"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-stoke-staffordshire-29662760

Some garage remove cats from petrol engines too. What's your point? All this needs stamping out, but it's hardly the fault of the car manufacturers, is it?

"The most common exposure pathway is breathing the air that contains the diesel particulate matter. The fine and ultra fine particles are respirable which means that they can avoid many of the human respiratory system defense mechanisms and enter deeply into the lung."

https://www3.epa.gov/region1/eco/airtox/diesel.html

Yes, I think we all know that too. The question is, whether you're geting more of them out of a modern diesel than an equivalent petrol engined car (or even one that's a few years old).

"The statistics about diesel are crystal clear. It’s deadly

Rigorous research over the past twenty years has proved the dangers of the fuel beyond all doubt "
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/motoring...out-diesel-are-crystal-clear.-Its-deadly.html

Exactly the sort of hysterical headline that really doesn't help the debate. Remember before cats were introduced? If you wanted to commit suicide by sitting in your garage with the engine running, you'd pick a petrol car for the job, rather than a diesel.

Look on the bright side, some good news is also being published.
"A new campaign by car makers claims modern diesel engines are clean and have reduced emissions, but experts say they are greenwashing the figures"
https://www.theguardian.com/environ...ars-been-unfairly-demonised-for-air-pollution

It's a 2015 article and inaccurate:

"The Euro-6 regulations require a real-world test to be introduced, but the timing of this is still being debated. Greg Archer from campaign group Transport & Environment says the car industry has successfully lobbied the European commission to have the likely date for an introduction moved back from 2017 to 2020."

That's cobblers. There are two new measures coming in before 2020. From 01/09 THIS YEAR, you won't be able to register a car that hasn't gone through the new WLTP drive cycle. From 01/09/2018, (although there might still be a bit of wriggle room on that) you won't be able to register a car that hasn't been through the "Real Driving Emissions" test. Remember, petrol engined vehicles will be subject to this too. It's not like they don't exploit all the same shortcomings in the regulatory tests that diesel cars exploit.

 

[empip]

Data has been turned over many times - 'Latest study finds...' etc.
The base accumulation of data :- "Diesel Exhaust in Miners Study (DEMS) studied the relationship between diesel exhaust exposure (DEE) and lung cancer mortality of workers at eight nonmetal mines who were followed from beginning of dieselization of the mines (1947–1967) through December 31, 1997. The original analyses quantified DEE exposures using exposure to respirable elemental carbon (REC) to represent DEE, and CO as a surrogate for REC. H..."
https://academic.oup.com/jnci/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/jnci/djs034

A commentary on the above :- "Diesel exhaust in miners study: how to understand the findings?..."
https://occup-med.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1745-6673-7-10
There is a response from data originators within archived comments, tail end of document.

Did they take Radon exposure into account ? "Radon Toxicity
Who Is at Risk of Radon Exposure?..."
https://www.atsdr.cdc.gov/csem/csem.asp?csem=8&po=7


"Influence of Alternative Exposure Estimates in the Diesel Exhaust Miners Study: Diesel Exhaust and Lung Cancer..."
Interested and likely biased party.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/risa.12556/full


"Diesel exhaust fumes ‘definitely’ cause cancer – should we be worried?"
Interesting article at Cancer Research UK
http://scienceblog.cancerresearchuk...definitely-cause-cancer-should-we-be-worried/
"Today the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) – part of the World Health Organisation – announced that it had reclassified diesel exhaust as a ‘definite carcinogen’ – putting it in its highest category (Category 1)..." Does that mean what we may reasonably decide that it means ? Have a read and see for yourself.

"Large diesel-powered machines responsible for toxic emissions in Europe’s urban areas will not be obliged to limit emissions of ultrafine particulate matter (PM) by using particle filters, and will not need to report their CO2 emissions, under key parts of a draft EU law seen by EURACTIV..."
Demonise our cars, but ...
https://www.euractiv.com/section/tr...oad-machinery-law-will-create-more-pollution/

Farmers - Do they look like they care - even burning 10 - 40 litres an hour when ploughing ! Was very exhaust laden before the modern expensive a/c cabs.


"Diesel Engines Exhausts: Myths and Realities United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, 2014"
https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/index.php?page=view&type=400&nr=1503&menu=1515
"34. In June 2012, the World Health Organization’s International Agency on Research on Cancer (IARC) concluded that diesel engine exhaust is carcinogenic to humans (IARC, 2012). IARC thereby changed its finding from 1988, when diesel exhaust was classified as probably being carcinogenic to humans. The finding from a previous evaluation in 1989, that gasoline exhaust is possibly carcinogenic to humans, remained unchanged..."

Petrol cars next on the hit list ?

Or from Page 18 same document.

So, who next ?
We appear to have little voice - Too many laws - Too many lawyers scratching around for dosh following 2007.

It might all be boring as f'k but that is how they fleece us, still there we go, at least we have more source stuff here than you'll find in the pop press.

Reality Check from BBC
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-39129270

Oh, and another report which somewhat muddies the water :-
"Objective To investigate the association between active commuting and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer, and all cause mortality..."
http://www.bmj.com/content/357/bmj.j1456
Apparently it is very good for one to carry out vigorous exercise eg. cycling, whilst commuting to work !!
"Participants 263,450 participants (106,674 (52%) women; mean age 52.6), recruited from 22 sites across the UK. The exposure variable was the mode of transport used (walking, cycling, mixed mode v non-active (car or public transport)) to commute to and from work on a typical day... Conclusions Cycle commuting was associated with a lower risk of CVD, cancer, and all cause mortality. Walking commuting was associated with a lower risk of CVD independent of major measured confounding factors. Initiatives to encourage and support active commuting could reduce risk of death and the burden of important chronic conditions."
Yep, riding and walking amongst the commuting traffic !! Dirty diesels n'all.


-0-

 

[Doggit]

Data has been turned over many times - 'Latest study finds...' etc.

Just looked at the first "study", and although this was it's conclusion, everyone will ignore the operative word "MAY", and take it as definitive proof that diesels are cuasing the destruction of the human race.

Our findings provide further evidence that diesel exhaust exposure may cause lung cancer in humans and may represent a potential public health burden.

As there have been no autopsies to determine the real cause of death, everything about the current diesel dabcle, is pure speculation.

 

[rules&rulers]

Are diesel vehicle sales doomed ?

second hand diesel vehicles (unless euro6 or better) within the m25. Yes .

there is talk of extending the current London LEZ (low emission zone) to include cars.The different councils will be asked if they want to adopt LEZ and they will answer yes.

London councils have the right to charge more for parking the more polluting diesel and petrol vehicles.This is expected to be country wide and easily enforceable as parking by phone/text/internet is the future (ringo).

The London ULEZ (ultra) is expected to come into force in 2020,although taxis/private hire is sooner.

So other parts of the country could easily adopt the LEZ principles .

not good news for older diesels and the more polluting cars.

But the daily payment charge to drive in LEZ enforced area ,seems to make it ok and maybe the pollution goes away.

 

[Avocet]

Just looked at the first "study", and although this was it's conclusion, everyone will ignore the operative word "MAY", and take it as definitive proof that diesels are cuasing the destruction of the human race.

Our findings provide further evidence that diesel exhaust exposure may cause lung cancer in humans and may represent a potential public health burden.

As there have been no autopsies to determine the real cause of death, everything about the current diesel dabcle, is pure speculation.

I think things have firmed-up somewhat in the last 5 years since that study was published. The fact that particulates and NOx are harmful to health is beyond doubt. Whether we're talking about 40,000 premature deaths per year or 20,000 might still be debatable, but considering the fuss made over the relatively tiny number we kill each year by running them over, I hardly think we're going to just shrug our shoulders on air quality related deaths! Likewise, we can haggle over exactly how much of it comes out of diesel car exhausts, but we can't pretend that none of it comes out of car exhausts!

 

[Doggit]

The fact that particulates and NOx are harmful to health is beyond doubt.

But that's the point; if you check the research, it's all based on an assumption that they are the killers, yet there is no hard proof whatsoever. It all goes back to a computer model prouced by MIT, and it's then been taken as gospel. Change the traffic light delays, stop people from sitting in their cars with their engines running, and make sure all cars have stop start technology within 5 years, and you may find a completely different set of results on the net study.

 

[JohnD]

Like tetraethyl lead, you mean. And cigarettes. The manufacturers could always find people to say the proof wasn't convincing enough.
https://ehp.niehs.nih.gov/wp-content/uploads/advpub/2016/6/EHP299.acco.pdf

There are still people ready to sell death and disease.

http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2016/02/lead-exposure-gasoline-crime-increase-children-health

it seems incredible until you look deeper
http://www.monbiot.com/2013/01/07/the-grime-behind-the-crime/

 

[Doggit]

And it could be argued that the fall in crime was a result of Rudy Guiliani bringing in a zero tolerance policing policy in 1993.

I have no problem with reducing harmful emmisions whether from pertol cars, diesel car, busses taxis or sea containers, but I'd rather it were done in the right way, and for the right reasons. Without that caveat, it will never be done properly.

 

[JohnD]

And it could be argued that the fall in crime was a result of Rudy Guiliani bringing in a zero tolerance policing policy in 1993.

Yes, it used to be argued.

But crime fell, on the same graph shape, in cities that had zero-tolerance, and in cities that didn't. And in other countries with totally different policing and incarceration policies.

Look carefully at 1990, 1991, 1992 and 1993 on the graph. Crime fell from its peak before Giuliani's policies were implemented.

And it fell earlier in countries that outlawed lead early; and later in countries that outlawed lead later.

Have a look at some of the links where other potential explanations are explored. See if you can find another one that fits.

"International and local time lags

If the lead-crime hypothesis is true then one of the results would be that nations should not only have blood-lead level and violent crime curves of similar slopes and maxima but that the time gap between the phaseout of lead and the reduction in crime levels should be the same. What's more, since nations introduced and phased out leaded gasoline at different periods we should expect that the width of the crime curves vary only by these factors.

This would be particularly strong evidence for the lead-crime hypothesis because different nations have different social policy. OECD nations had different rates of abortion and abortion access, gun proliferation, racism, income inequality, incarceration, and drug proliferation during their crime waves, yet the curves remain inviolate. Moreover, Nevin claims that no nation as of yet breaks the international trend.[9]

The lead-crime hypothesis also stands up to scrutiny within nations. For example, São Paulo, as the site of ethanol refineries, weaned itself from leaded gasoline years ahead of the rest of Brazil, and homicide rates have plummeted in São Paulo since 2000, despite holding steady in the rest of the country.[10]

http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Lead-crime_hypothesis#Evidence

It is extremely difficult for policemen, criminologists and politicians to believe the evidence, because their careers and self-worth depend on believing that their actions have been responsible for crime reduction.

 

[Robbox]

Fascinating Mother JOnes article. Especially when they took it international and conversely took it down to a street level in the USA.
I’ll be totally honest and admit this is the first time I have read about the connection between lead and violent crimes.

 

[ironsidebod]

Whilst I'm not criticising the lead/crime correlation, this site demonstrates that all "stats" should be viewed with a critical eye

http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations

Enjoy.

 

[Doggit]

Or maybe, things are quite a straightforward as thy seem. Maybe, the twighlight zones realy exists, and it's only our absurd need for straight forward facts, that stops us seeing it clearly.

The correlation between lead and crime has been suspected for some time, but it's not quite as straightforward as it might appear. I suspect it's bringing out a tendency that exists within the criminal, rather than actually causing the crime. A bit like most people are nice until they drink, but is the drink that's causing it, or releasing it.

 

[empip]

Regarding UK air pollution.
"...But where does the 40,000 figure come from, what does it mean, and is there really a ‘crisis’?..."

https://medium.com/wintoncentre/doe...0-000-each-year-people-in-the-uk-ecca96fb3a1a
An expert analysis.

Are we too easily accepting the imposed limits? Are they arbitrary - (lower is always better for bad things) - How many deceased have been chopped up as proof - Any death certificates citing 'air pollution' ?

Take away the EU funding for NGO's promoting the EU doctrines the popular disaster themes may just disappear.

-0-