But I'd still like to understand modulating boilers: would one of the same nominal rating work as effectively, or would it throttle back to too low an output once the water got fairly hot ?
If your house needs a 20kW boiler, that's what you get; though slightly larger will do no harm. But don't assume that your existing boiler is the correct size; it was quite normal 20 years ago to install oversized boilers.
If you use the
Sedbuk Whole House Boiler Calculator, you can find out what size boiler you should have. It does however assume that you are installing a regular boiler, not a combi. The size of a combi is always determined by the hot water requirement as this will be much greater than the heating requirement.
The difference between a modulating and non modulating (on-off) boiler is that, when the water leaving the boiler reaches the temperature set by the boiler thermostat, the on-off boiler will just turn off until the temperature has dropped, say 10°C; it then turns on again. If it did not do this, the boiler would continue heating the water, possibly until it boiled.
In a modulating boiler, once the required temperature has been reached, the boiler output is reduced to maintain the water at the set temperature. How far it reduces will be determined by the amount of heat being given out by the radiators, which is determined by the heat loss, which changes with the weather.
Heating systems are usually designed for a worst-case with an outside temperature of -1°C and a room temperature of 20°C. So it has to raise the inside temperature by 21°C. If the outside temperature is 11°C, the heating only has to raise the temperature by 10°C, so less heat is required from the radiators, and so from the boiler. The modulating boiler will run at full power to get the house up to temperature and then throttle right back to provide just enough heat to maintain the inside temperature.
Further refinement can be obtained by installing weather compensation (boiler dependent), which measures the external temperature directly and adjusts the boiler output accordingly.