British Covid-19: more dangerous than most

[EFLImpudence]

What you keep forgetting is that without control measures something like 90% of the UK would catch Covid-19 before it sputtered out, which would mean 480,000 dead, or with British Covid-19, 720,000.

Arithmetic awry?

90% of 67,000,000 is 60,300,0000 x 0.01 (1%) = 603,000 x 1.5 = 904,500.



Incidentally, how do you know 90% would have caught it?

Surely that is as equally without foundation as you think the posts you dismiss.

Has any poor country without first world medical practices had such figures?

 

[IT Minion]

Arithmetic awry?

90% of 67,000,000 is 60,300,0000 x 0.01 (1%) = 603,000 x 1.5 = 904,500.



Incidentally, how do you know 90% would have caught it?

Surely that is as equally without foundation as the posts you dismiss.

Has any poor country without first world medical practices had such figures?

I just went for 60 million, because it isn't important or useful to be overly precise.

90% because that's roughly right for herd immunity.

Brazil is pushing 250,000 so far with no end in sight. They're the closest to the nutters ideal of no preventative measures. But thankfully most people in most countries have a better grasp of science than you or John.

As for poorer countries, most of them have fewer people surviving to old age, just like you prefer.

 

[fillyboy]

That is a concern for me. But why are people not being treated if the hospitals are empty as others have claimed?

Good question, albeit to the wrong person. Why not make an appointment with your GP and ask him.

 

[EFLImpudence]

I just went for 60 million, because it isn't important or useful to be overly precise.

Accuracy doesn't matter.

90% because that's roughly right for herd immunity.

Is it?

Brazil is pushing 250,000 so far with no end in sight. They're the closest to the nutters ideal of no preventative measures. But thankfully most people in most countries have a better grasp of science than you or John.

Brazil has 213,000,000 population

Their death rate per million is 70% that of the UK at the moment.

As for poorer countries, most of them have fewer people surviving to old age,

So - No, then.

just like you prefer.

Don't be silly.

 

[denso13]

Good question, albeit to the wrong person. Why not make an appointment with your GP and ask him.

Ask my GP why hospitals are empty and people aren't being treated as they otherwise would?

I've had monthly calls with my GP since Feb 2020, 4 face to face consultations and 1 ENT hospital appointment. Not sure what point you are actually trying to make?

 

[IT Minion]

Brazil has 213,000,000

See, this is another example of basic failure to understand the problem. In an exponential progression the number of cases will increase until it exhausts the number of potential infectees, or it will be stopped by controls.

If your theory is that counties only pay attention when a set % of their people die then you'd have a point, but in practice most people notice when a thousand extra people are dying each day from a new disease.

Deaths per 100,000 only really has value as a metric once everything has finished.

 

[fillyboy]

I've had monthly calls with my GP since Feb 2020, 4 face to face consultations and 1 ENT hospital appointment. Not sure what point you are actually trying to make?

Lucky you, what area are you?, certainly not Cornwall, All my cancellations are by letter, if they remember.

 

[ReganAndCarter]

Ask my GP why hospitals are empty and people aren't being treated as they otherwise would?

I've had monthly calls with my GP since Feb 2020, 4 face to face consultations and 1 ENT hospital appointment. Not sure what point you are actually trying to make?

My GP's surgery has been like Fort Knox for the last year. You would need to be seriously ill to get to see a dr. As for a consultant neurologist I know of, he hasn't done any work for the NHS for a year apart from the odd emergency. He's now been re-deployed to look at the anomalies in registering Covid deaths in his health authority.

 

[fillyboy]

My GP's surgery has been like Fort Knox for the last year. You would need to be seriously ill to get to see a dr. As for a consultant neurologist I know of, he hasn't done any work for the NHS for a year apart from the odd emergency. He's now been re-deployed to look at the anomalies in registering Covid deaths in his health authority.

Likewise, perhaps Denso is really special, or Matt Hancock.

 

[ReganAndCarter]

Likewise, perhaps Denso is really special, or Matt Hancock.

I think Matt Hancock only frequents the tiling forum occasionally.

It's possible that Covid hasn't reached Craggy Island yet.

 

[EFLImpudence]

See, this is another example of basic failure to understand the problem. In an exponential progression the number of cases will increase until it exhausts the number of potential infectees, or it will be stopped by controls.

You suppose that 100% of the population are potential infectees. Is that the case?

If your theory is that counties only pay attention when a set % of their people die then you'd have a point, but in practice most people notice when a thousand extra people are dying each day from a new disease.

It's not my theory.
YOU said; talking about the UK; that without controls 90% of the people would be infected and 1% would die.

I asked you if that had happened anywhere where controls had not been used and you mentioned Brazil where that would mean 191,700,000 infected and 1,917,000 dead although you said 253,000 to date.

Deaths per 100,000 only really has value as a metric once everything has finished.

Ok. You seem to want it both ways.

So deaths to date in a country - either total or per capita - as yet mean nothing therefore your assumption that measures taken in the UK have saved the numbers you used are as yet unproven.

 

[Bodgedbuild]

Fatality rate and case fatality rate get mixed up, if Covid were left unchecked with nothing to reduce its spread, eventually most people will get it. The original herd immunity theory seemed great except it has now been shown that you can catch it more than once. It would be truly horrific if Covid were allowed to spread unchecked because the current case fatality rate is around 3% and that figure goes exponentially higher in old age. The other thing not considered is ill health and recovery after infection, where I work, my team has 19 people, almost half the team caught Covid around Christmas time 2 of those are still very ill now, one is probably going to have to retire early because he can only walk a few steps before needing a rest (he is 62) the other will probably return to work within a few more weeks (so around 4 to 5 months off work). The picture is just as bad throughout the company where I work. I'm sure some of the doubters would open their eyes a bit more if they work/know many people, several hundred in my case, in a setting such as a company workforce.

 

[motorbiking]

I know of a few under 45 year olds with long Covid. One chap I know via work in his late 30s has suffered heart damage from Covid.

anything that provoked a strong immune response has the risk of permanently damaging organs.

You can’t look at large poor countries with warm climates and compare them to densely populated Northern European countries.

We are starting to see the impact of the U.Ks rapid vaccination program compared to france and Italy etc. Lockdown is not responsible for our declining infection/death rate. Our lockdown is no different to other European countries.

 

[noseall]

All my cancellations are by letter

I know the Cornish are a bit 'different' but by letter? Is that because the French shot all the pigeons?

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

No wonder your on my ignore list as I remembered that you go completely off topic when you can’t answer or get stumped .

Because it says show ignored content and you click on it ,all your time spent on furlough hasn’t taught you how to work this forum yet then king sheeple.

Let me see if I understand you properly?
You put somebody on ignore because you don't want to see their comments?
When they do comment, you get a little flag telling you that there are comments from an ignored person?
So you click on the "show ignored posts" option, so that you can see what the ignored person has posted?

And you put this person on your ignore list because they don't provide the answers that you expected?

Have I understood you correctly?

Are there any other gems of wisdom you'd like to share with us?