Maybe "most likely" but, IMO still extremely unlikely.The reason that an RCD may trip when a lamp blows is most likley to be as follows.
The difficulty I have with that hypothesis is that I would have expected that such capacitive coupling effects would affect L and L more-or-less equally. L-CPC capacitive coupling in the circuit should be essentially the same as N-CPC capacitive coupling; the very high fault current should be essentially the same in both L & N; the change of voltage (and, more importantly, rate of change of voltage) due to the transient very high fault current should be essentially the same in both L and N. Accordingly, I would have expected the leakage to CPCh (through capacitive coupling) due to the transient high fault current to be essentially equal in L and N, thereby not resulting in any current imbalance in the RCD - but, of course, my 'expectations' may well be incorrect!The high fault current flowing through the impedances along the Neutral causes the Neutral in the lighting ciruit to rise to a significant voltage above ground and the CPC. Capacitive coupling between Neutral and the CPC allows for some of the fault current on the Neutral to flow into the CPC. The portion of the fault current that flows along the CPC bypasses the RCD sensor and hence Live current and Neutral current through the RCD sensor are not equal.
Kind Regards, John