Well, I've monitored the situation for a couple of months. Following the last post on this thread, I lifted the carpet, removed the rotting wooden carpet grippers (under which I found several wood lice) removed the soaking wet rubber-backed carpet underlay, lifted the carpet and took the skirtings off. I laid a sheet of budget DPC membrane directly on the concrete floor, taking it up the wall six inches or so, then refitted the skirting. I then laid a sheet of polystyrene insulation (the thin stuff you put on walls behind wallpaper) then new underlay, then the carpet. I did all this only in the affected area, which is a strip the length of the room and about a metre in width. Since I did all that we've had several weeks of bone dry weather, followed by two weeks of heavy rain, and the floor remains dry. Surely the failure of that heavy rain to penetrate the floor or the wall indicates that the problem is condensation?