Impeccable logic
- Thread starter Kes
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I said:What do you really think joe, when your suggestion was to use three cups and three people?Then joe-90 said:
Three cups. Three people. If you meant that there should be three cups but only two people, then just shoot a video with only two people in it.
Haha now you arguing with your own statements. You mentioned Monty Halls experiment and this is this actual founding of his exeriment mentioned on Zillion and zillions of websites. If the person carrying out the experiment knows where the car/250k/object under the cup is. Yes its better switching.
If they do not as in my arguments. Then no its not better and wont make a difference... Why?????Cos its 50:50.
Thank you and good night!
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Your experiments are based on the person carrying it out on knowing where the object is, so yes it is better switching.
The Ops question no one knew where the object is. Hence not worth switching.
Why dont you send me a video of an experiment when no one knows where the object is which is relevant to the Ops questions
The Ops question no one knew where the object is. Hence not worth switching.
Why dont you send me a video of an experiment when no one knows where the object is which is relevant to the Ops questions
Oh, I think we both know that this isn't the case.jackpot said:
No I didn't - Monty Hall was a game show host, not any kind of scientist.
No it isn't. It's just a web site. The founding of the named paradox was the game show itself.
Once again - since you appear to find the problem so childishly simple, then you'll have no trouble filming a demonstration.
Like i said before i dont need a demonstration. I already proved i was right on my first post about this.
You will admit your wrong so the discussion will go on forever. I cant be bothered posting to people who with raise silly points about peoples comments yet have nothing to back up their own misgivings.
You will admit your wrong so the discussion will go on forever. I cant be bothered posting to people who with raise silly points about peoples comments yet have nothing to back up their own misgivings.
Read my earlier post guys ... Softus is doing what Softus does best, muddying the waters with totally irrelevant scenarios which bear absolutely no relevance to the OP's original question in the hope that eventually everyone will give up the will to live and stop contesting his point of view.
But then again, don't believe me as Softus posted ...
So I may, as he suggests, be wrong yet again.
I would agree once again with Joe-90 ... If you want to waste time doing a video at least do a meaningful one ... Two cups with an object placed underneath one of them by a willing volunteer so that you don't know which and have 50 shots at turning a cup over versus 50 where you consider which one you would like to turn over and then turn over the other.
This far more accurately represents the final two box scenario in DND and is 50:50 ... Absolutely NO BENEFIT in swapping despite what Super Soft thinks.
I must admit, this is the first time I've seen anyone offering to pay someone to agree with them
MW
But then again, don't believe me as Softus posted ...
So I may, as he suggests, be wrong yet again.
I would agree once again with Joe-90 ... If you want to waste time doing a video at least do a meaningful one ... Two cups with an object placed underneath one of them by a willing volunteer so that you don't know which and have 50 shots at turning a cup over versus 50 where you consider which one you would like to turn over and then turn over the other.
This far more accurately represents the final two box scenario in DND and is 50:50 ... Absolutely NO BENEFIT in swapping despite what Super Soft thinks.
I must admit, this is the first time I've seen anyone offering to pay someone to agree with them
MW
OK. Feel free to stop posting.jackpot said:
jackpot, are you actually reading the words I've typed? I was asking what motivation there is for me to send you a video tape.jackpot said:
I've offered you money to see proof of your point. It's seems somewhat churlish of you just to mock that offer and yet not make any attempt to analyse the problem using any recognised statistical method, but if you feel that you've debated the issue to its limit and that you're right, then I suppose there's nothing else to discuss.
I have used statistical methods. Called odds and probabilities. Only basic ones as the actual question is quite basic so there is no need to get technical, yet you keep posting about silly experiments when 1 person actually knows where the object and ultimately removes an empty cup thereby making the probability 2:3.
But in the ops question, no one knows where the 250k is. Thereby making the probability 1:2
Thanks for an entertaining night.
But in the ops question, no one knows where the 250k is. Thereby making the probability 1:2
Thanks for an entertaining night.
I disagree.jackpot said:
The question, and the Monty Hall paradox that you've cited as proof of your claim that you're right, is far from basic. It has baffled many people over many years, and is an excellent example of a problem where the answer is not the one that most people intuitively believe to be correct.
I actually feel some pity for you, because I also used to think that the probability was 50:50, and that there was no advantage in swapping, but I'm happy to admit that I discovered I was wrong.
I sincerely wish you the best of luck with your dogma.
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The video of what, John? Two cups? One with an object underneath and one without an object underneath? How many permutations are there John? Same as a coin (heads and tails). Same as a switch (on and off)? At no time is there any other permutation available. There are never two objects under two cups or no objects under two cups just one object under one cup and no object under one cup. So in what way would switching the cups around make any difference? The status quo is the same - one object under one cup. Why can't you grasp the concept that the odds are different for the person who joins the game later (when one of the cups has disappeared) than the person who joins earlier when there are three cups to choose from?
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