On what basis?
1. The OP says: Never had any problems with the 15kw Potterton in terms of power.
Why should his requirement suddenly increase to 18kW?
2. The installer says it's worth paying a little extra for the 18kw because it will be more efficient - something about the fact that it will run more smoothly when it steps down to a lower output than the 15kw which will switch on and off.
That would be true if the installer was comparing the modulating WB with the ON/OFF Potterton. But if you are comparing two modulating boilers, they would both be running at exactly the same output (provided it's within the modulating range of the boiler). So if the max requirement is 15kW, the 18kW boiler will be running at 15kW, just like the 15kW boiler. At the bottom end, if the requirement is 5.5kW, the 15kW will modulate down to 5.5kW. While the 18kW will have to run in on/off mode as it can't modulate below 6kW
3. This is the opposite of my understanding, that the 15kw boiler is more efficient than 18kw since it burns less fuel.
The OP is confused. If the immediate requirement is, e.g. 11kW, both boilers will modulate to 11kW. So, give or take a small difference in efficiency (output/input), both will be consuming virtually the same amount of gas.
I agree that it's up to the OP to tell the installer what he wants. The installer could always get the client to sign a waiver, exonerating the installer of any liability if the boiler subsequently proved too small.