New Covid Variant - B.1.1.529

[Justin Passing]

On the theory that Omicron isn't dangerous, how would we know yet? The UK numbers are irrelevant as it takes three weeks on average from positive test to death. It's only been a bit over a week since positive tests so far. We shouldn't see any deaths yet.

Even South Africa itself should only just be seeing an uptick in the next week or so if it's as dangerous as Delta.

If you look at the SA numbers as reported by JC above - others are ahead of him - hospital stays are short, the numbers needing assistance with breathing are low, there's no sign of it being very bad. Given that it was around before it was reported (first known case possibly Netherlands, November 9th) and that by the time it was reported in 38 countries, no deaths had been reported from it anywhere. It's appearing in areas where no SA travellers have been so "community" transmission is assumed. Those would partly be asymptomatic or we'd know more about the spread.
It could still have bad news for some, of course. Too early to say "Omicron isn't dangerous".

If omicron pans out to be more contagious but less pathogenic than delta, even though that's what the stats would have predicted, it'll still be good fortune, not control.

 

[JP_]

Some excellent comments beneath the video.


However, to some on the forum, because it is on Youtube automatically means it is wrong - which just goes to show how good they are at logic and common sense.

Not at all. It's just that some people on this forum share video clips of people who are well known conspiracy theorists, antivaxxers, and general "outspoken" types who's career is based on saying controversial things that people mindlessly share.

There is nothing at all wrong with YouTube, and a hell of a lot of amazingly good stuff is published there. But for some reason, people keeping picking out the worst dregs to share here.

 

[Harry Bloomfield]

There is nothing at all wrong with YouTube, and a hell of a lot of amazingly good stuff is published there. But for some reason, people keeping picking out the worst dregs to share here.

It is a terrific resource and free for anyone to post on, but the fact that anyone can post and claim what they post is true/authoritative, means everyone needs to be careful and take what is said with suspicion and a large pinch of salt. Some on this forum are entirely lacking in criticism of what they read on there and similar sites, plus completely lacking in salt. It's there, it goes against the official version, so it must be true - seems to be the way they think.

 

[ajohn]

The Omicron reactions are due to be reassessed 3 weeks after they were announced. The medical lot of late seem to be suggesting that it wont be possible to get a true idea of it's effects on hospitalisation etc in that short a time. So maybe a political merry xmas reaction or maybe they will have a better idea of what it means in practice. The general view here now is that it is probably more infective,

The problem with SA info is that most of the infected are young. Also it seems lower vaccination levels. It's also thought that they have higher levels of people who have been infected to such an extent that it may make up for vaccination. They have also reported reinfection but there are strong indications that this can be expected even with Delta. It's been detected by our own people in the UK via records where they have them. It's viewed as dead certain if sequencing shows changes over what they were originally infected with. Probable if that info isn't available. They can't sequence everybody that is infected and can only estimate asymptotics. It seems that Delta reduced those going on comments from people who tested positive.

 

[IT Minion]

If you look at the SA numbers as reported by JC above - others are ahead of him - hospital stays are shor

There hasn't been enough time to see that. Working on the theory that Omicron is why case numbers started rising fast a month ago, we should only just be seeing the increase in hospital admissions, we should have no idea on length of stay.

It really sounds like people trying to spin a story around insufficient data.

 

[Justin Passing]

There hasn't been enough time to see that. Working on the theory that Omicron is why case numbers started rising fast a month ago, we should only just be seeing the increase in hospital admissions, we should have no idea on length of stay.

It really sounds like people trying to spin a story around insufficient data.

Not so when omicron cases are found and followed in hospitals, as reported.
Hospital stays average 2.8 days vs 8.5. Same population.
Deaths certainly not any worse.
It's been around a month. Worldwide deaths reported, zero.

Nobody's spinning anything, just saying it how it is so far.

That's your second straw man. Stop making them it's getting obvious!

 

[IT Minion]

Not so when omicron cases are found and followed in hospitals, as reported.
Hospital stays average 2.8 days vs 8.5.
Deaths certainly not any worse.
It's been around a month. Worldwide deaths reported, zero.

Nobody's spinning anything, just saying it how it is so far.

That's your second straw man. Stop making them it's getting obvious!

How many? I haven't seen the source but how many sequenced cases? Five or hundreds?

 

[ajohn]

It really sounds like people trying to spin a story around insufficient data.

LOL As usual. The gov has reacted. The medical lot are still making their mind up. The reasons for that have been explained - end of really. A lot of wait and see as there always has been. Usual bleats - travel and hospitality will suffer as they always have. TBH I don't think there was any way those areas could return to normality anyway as most people are prudent. Changes just mean more will be.

 

[ajohn]

Nobody's spinning anything, just saying it how it is so far.

It might turn out to be more infective and less damaging but one countries population can not always be compared with another's. That factor does figure comparing Africa with Europe etc.

 

[Justin Passing]

It might turn out to be more infective and less damaging but one countries population can not always be compared with another's. That factor does figure comparing Africa with Europe etc.

ALL factors FIGURE. Perhaps you'd like to link to something to back up the particular one you picked?

 

[ajohn]

Might be of interest to people - out of a technical report on variant monitoring

 

[ajohn]

ALL factors FIGURE. Perhaps you'd like to link to something to back up the particular one you picked?

Getting on for 20years difference in life expectancy and some of that propped up by variations in affluence especially in Africa.

 

[Justin Passing]

How many? I haven't seen the source but how many sequenced cases? Five or hundreds?

All of the ones they're counting, obvs! Otherwise they wouldn't know how many omicrons they had, would they.
Easy enough to find. "All of the 77 cases sequenced in the province (Gauteng) between 12 and 20 November were identified as being caused by the variant."
Got any more.....?

 

[Justin Passing]

Getting on for 20years difference in life expectancy and some of that propped up by variations in affluence especially in Africa.

So you compare the same demographic slice, etc. Do you have something showing an unexplained significant difference in response between individuals in one country compared with another?

 

[Deleted member 292770]

So, this latest scariant, which is going to kill us all, has not been prevented by the, so far, 2 vaccines and a booster.

No doubt another booster will come out ($$ kerching $$) to combat it.

But it won't work. How do I know this? History repeats itself, that's how. More scariants will appear requiring more boosters requiring more money to be transferred from governments to the drug companies.

A product makes billions then fails, requiring a replacement which makes more billions and then also fails and so on ad infinitum. What a business model!

jackpot