One reason Covid is here to stay

[Brigadier]

I posted very early on that I doubted we'd ever have an effective vaccine.

Dr Chris Smith (Cambridge University virologist) reported the same thought this week.

Two guys (one from florida, the other from Hong Kong) have become very ill with confirmed covid again, after having also done so early in the pandemic. Both had tested negative for the virus after their first illness, showing that they had cleared it.

His thought was that, if someone had become so ill and yet their immune system couldn't stop them getting ill again, a vaccine (which shouldn't put you in intensive care itself) is unlikely to trigger an effective immune response.

It was on one of his podcasts, so I might have a re - listen to some and see if I can find the relevant bit.

 

[Vinty]

By the time a vaccine is devoloped it may not be needed.
https://www-bbc-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/health-53192532?amp_js_v=a3&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA=#aoh=15992312325090&referrer=https://www.google.com&amp_tf=From %1$s&ampshare=https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53192532

Quote from the above article.

Prof Carl Heneghan, who carried out the analysis, said the pattern of falling death rates in hospitals was also being seen in other countries, including Italy,

"We should be investigating what's changed," he said.

"It's a radically different disease we're looking at if the death rate is 1% rather than 6%".

He said that translated to a difference of 500 deaths a day in April when the disease was at its height

 

[JohnD]

"It's a radically different disease we're looking at if the death rate is 1% rather than 6%"

What's changed might be that we are testing lots more people.

If there is no cure or vaccine, and the disease rampages unchecked through the population, with repeat infections, maybe it will kill 1% of the population every year.

Which is quite bad.

 

[JohnD]

Another expert.

So that's two you've found.



"Health experts cite three main reasons why fewer people who test positive for Covid-19 are becoming seriously ill and even fewer are dying from the disease: more testing, changes in the ages of those infected and improved treatment for the sickest patients."

and

“Back in March and April we were mainly testing people who were really ill and more likely to die. Now the programme is catching a much higher proportion of infections with mild or no symptoms.”

It's a funny thing, but Lockdown, Social Distancing, handwashing and Mask Wearing, which were intended to reduce transmision of disease and number of people infected, have been followed by a reduction in disease transmission and number of people infected.

Coincidence?

Luckily your Italian sources have been trying to think of ways it could have happened.

 

[noseall]

alcohol is a great way to make the body dehydrated.

All the instructors advise you have a beer. But just one. It's meant to help with the (leg) burn.

A Cannock bloke and his missus joinded us in Zel am See last Christmas and all he wanted to do at lunchtimes (on the mountain) was consume copious amounts of alcohol via shots. His favourite was some clear liquid with a bit of pear skewered on a stick, dangling in the drink.

Some skiers think its ace to hutle down a mountain half cut.

 

[noseall]

"Health experts cite three main reasons why fewer people who test positive for Covid-19 are becoming seriously ill and even fewer are dying from the disease: more testing, changes in the ages of those infected and improved treatment for the sickest patients."

The brekthrough came with the revelation that a cheap widely available steroid makes a huge difference betwixt life and death.

 

[JohnD]

All the instructors advise you have a beer.

it's a cunning ploy to arrange rest breaks for themselves, when the skiers need to stop for a pee.

 

[noseall]

it's a cunning ploy to arrange rest breaks for themselves, when the skiers need to stop for a pee.

Lol. It takes ages to wrestle a tiny (cold affected) body part out of several layers of clothing.

Good call JD.

 

[EddieM]

All the instructors advise you have a beer. But just one. It's meant to help with the (leg) burn.

A Cannock bloke and his missus joinded us in Zel am See last Christmas and all he wanted to do at lunchtimes (on the mountain) was consume copious amounts of alcohol via shots. His favourite was some clear liquid with a bit of pear skewered on a stick, dangling in the drink.

Some skiers think its ace to hutle down a mountain half cut.

Well he should be careful, some resorts fine intoxicated skiers. Quite rightly too, an 80kg person ploughing into you at 30+ MPH is dangerous.

 

[noseall]

dangerous.

Lethal.

 

[Brigadier]

Well he should be careful, some resorts fine intoxicated skiers. Quite rightly too, an 80kg person ploughing into you at 30+ MPH is dangerous.

80kg? I wish

 

[EddieM]

Lethal.

Potentially, yes.

 

[Trazor]

If there is no cure or vaccine, and the disease rampages unchecked through the population, with repeat infections, maybe it will kill 1% of the population every year.

Which is quite bad.

Historically the annual death rate was just under 1% , prior to Covid19

One would expect a good proportion of that 1% to die of Covid 19, due to the condition they are in.

Your projected 1% could possibly end up being 1.3% to 1.7% in total.

Are they testing the vaccine on sheep JohnD..........