options for an EU-UK FTA

[Notch7]

Does Johnson want a fast deal or a good deal?

UK can:

1) Accept regulatory alignment (mah sovereignty!)
2) Accept an FTA that leaves some EU tariffs in place (mah farmers!)
3) Negotiate a complex enforcement mechanism (mah deadline!)

The noise from No10 is Johnson wants a fast deal, in which case the trade off he faces is content

these are the options to get a fast deal:
1) Accept more of their demands
2) Make fewer demands of your own
3) Authorise Chief Negotiators to whip underlings

Johnsons big majority means diddly squat to the EU -after the withdrawal agreement happens the UK wont have any negotiating power (we cant then walk away from a deal, its too late)

 

[transam]

Dunno tbh

It will all get sorted in due course after all thats what the be** ends voluteered for and get paid for

public opinion is fickle and selfish and can change in an instant

go's t*ts up sling em out in 5 years

 

[Newboy]

the UK wont have any negotiating power

Other than being:

The fifth largest consumer market in the world
The third largest stock market in the world
The fourth largest consumers of wine
The second largest market for German cars
The largest tourist nationality for Spanish holidays

Hardly any negotiating points there?

Unless you're selling cars, booze, consumer goods, holidays ................................

 

[fillyboy]

these are the options to get a fast deal:
1) Accept more of their demands
2) Make fewer demands of your own
3) Authorise Chief Negotiators to whip underlings

4. Or just walk away Renee. Sounds like a December 2020 deadline may be written into law.

 

[Notch7]

Other than being:

The fifth largest consumer market in the world
The third largest stock market in the world
The fourth largest consumers of wine
The second largest market for German cars
The largest tourist nationality for Spanish holidays

Hardly any negotiating points there?

Unless you're selling cars, booze, consumer goods, holidays ................................

This is the 'German car industry' argument used by brexiteers.

The figures: UK exports to EU 48%, EU exports to UK 8%

But even more importantly, the EU have since its inception worked constantly to eliminate trade barriers with in the single market.
The EU therefore will protect the integrity of the single market and customs union beyond any damage to the sectors of trade to the UK that you have mentioned.

For example; fishing rights. There is no chance the EU will allow no access to fishing rights as part of an FTA, France would never agree. Lets say there is no deal - well the EU would still want access to fishing, and they will get it because by far the biggest destination for UK fish is .....the EU.


The EU cant give the UK a preferential deal because it would create tensions with other countries thaf have trade deals. The UK will become a 3rd country and it will never get the frictionless access as though it is still in the single market.

Lets not forget, the EU is a $19 trillion trade bloc, 22% of total world trade and its on our doorstep.

We do not hold all the cards, far from it.

 

[Newboy]

We do not hold all the cards, far from it.

Of course we don't hold all the cards

the UK wont have any negotiating power

but we do have quite a few

If you want a few indications then have a read of Macron's recent statements - room for negotiation I would suggest

 

[Newboy]

EU exports to UK 8%

As a whole but to certain sectors and countries the export share is much more significant

 

[Notch7]

4. Or just walk away Renee. Sounds like a December 2020 deadline may be written into law.

Walking away means no deal
No deal means hard border Ireland
US have said no trade deal if hard border in Ireland
Johnson has already been scared away from hard border by risk of return to violence.
Johnson risks all his plans with a no deal - Imagine those Northern constituencies having a hard economic shock.....Mmmmm wont Johnson be popular.

 

[Ihavenojob]

EU exports to UK 8%

But that is 27 countries,

 

[Notch7]

But that is 27 countries,

Youve spotted the reason why the EU is more important to the UK and the UK less important to the EU.

Its an average of 8% for each EU country.

 

[JohnD]

If newboy and fillyboy are right, the EU will have spent the last three years caving in, giving up its red lines, and submitting to UK's demands.

Is that the case?

 

[Doug99]

Trade deal in 2020 'possible' but difficult - European Parliament vice president

The World at One

BBC Radio 4

As we've been hearing, the government has indicated today that it plans to add a new clause to its Brexit bill to rule out any extension to the transition period beyond the end of next year.

First Vice-President of the European Parliament Mairead McGuinness says it is "possible" for the UK to strike a trade deal with the EU by this deadline but "we’re all a bit cautious about whether it can effectively be completed within an 11-month period."

She tells BBC Radio 4's World at One that the next phase of negotiations will be "more difficult" than the previous one because the UK will be diverging away from its current relationship with the EU.

Ms McGuinness adds that this is a "more complicated process" than negotiating a typical trade agreement, where the countries involved would generally be moving closer together.



Just goes to show how a majority Government can rattle the EU cage

 

[EFLImpudence]

Please indicate where any being rattled is shown.

 

[Notch7]

Just goes to show how a majority Government can rattle the EU cage

Im not sure how you translate 'difficult but possible' into 'their cage is rattled'
Strong imagination I guess.

The EU havent conceded anything in 3+ years, they wont be starting now.

The EU are desperate to get brexit completed, its an annoyance to them as they want to concentrate on their key purpose: being the worlds largest trade bloc.

 

[durhamplumber]

Does Johnson want a fast deal or a good deal?

With his majority...Any he likes