Stock market dealing

[Justin Passing]

Still doing it then. My advice then, is that you use a simulator until you're winning overall.

I can't be your teacher, I can only really tell you what I picked which worked for me. I've stopped trading every day now, though I usually look. When there's something moving a lot it's much easier. Bitcoin hasn't been behaving, most of the time. I have the bulk of funds in Funds and ETF's, which are harder to manage because of the delays

The one trade of yours I looked at was the one which lost the most. As I remember, it was just a popup, and you went long when it dropped back. There was no trend, and you stayed in it much much too long.

A rising trend is a sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
So where you're looking around your second label on the btc is more of a range because the pullbacks are such a large %, but yes it's rising a little on your btc chart. Not much of a rise, which later shows it's only consolidation. Did you compare with the previous days, MSTR, HUT8, etc.
You have to get your entries right. Wait for pull backs, always.
The rising channel is between the blue and green lines. Enter at a blue arrow, exit at the green.
15:06 is somewhere in the oval, so the wrong place to enter long.
You would have got out at the red arrow.
Black arrow looks like a breakout high may be starting, but it's a fakeout. MACD woud probably have shown you that was coming, if you had its numbers set right. The standard ones are too long for day trading on a minute chart.
You would have realised it wasn't happening and got out around the black blob.
The volume may have dropped too. Upward breakouts need an increase.
15:16 looks like a high (above the "a" of "upward" - definitely the wrong place to enter, though because you'd joined an uptrend , you should have realised and got out with your head above water at the red arrow.

MARA was consolidating too. BTC wasn't moving much. You can't use a micrometer for influence between names. AND remember they can go the other way.


Riot -
"Five reasons to short Riot today."
It did drop so you should have been up.
If you were looking for a short you would have been looking for highs as entries. If you missed the start of day, the reason for the short is probably gone. Indeed, you get a "double bottom" so would be expecting a return upwards, which is what happened.
Ifthe drop loos strong, as it was, then wait for a green candle, there were a couple.


Think you're taking too much notice of odd candles for a 1 minute chart. Look on the 5 minute for reversal signals. They're much less reliable on 1 minute unless big, or showing a rejection of a strong level.
Neal Roberts mid day short lessons are often good.

I bought NVD3 a couple of weeks ago to hold into the split which is Monday. It doubled do I sold some. I'm hoping for a bit more in the next couple of days, but I have tight stop. Wouldn't be surprised to see NVDA back at 900, ie 90 next week..
Some long-term ones I have are down quite a bit, like metals. Uranium, anyone?
I had a lump in China with a stop loss well below. A bloody wick went and hit it. Cost about 20k. Can't win em all.

SMB capital have a good 1 hour vid on becoming a successful day trader. First they do say, go off and learn the fundamentals, and a load of standard sequences. They list out several things which you have to get right.

 

[Arbu]

Still doing it then. My advice then, is that you use a simulator until you're winning overall.

I can't be your teacher, I can only really tell you what I picked which worked for me. I've stopped trading every day now, though I usually look. When there's something moving a lot it's much easier. Bitcoin hasn't been behaving, most of the time. I have the bulk of funds in Funds and ETF's, which are harder to manage because of the delays

The one trade of yours I looked at was the one which lost the most. As I remember, it was just a popup, and you went long when it dropped back. There was no trend, and you stayed in it much much too long.

A rising trend is a sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
So where you're looking around your second label on the btc is more of a range because the pullbacks are such a large %, but yes it's rising a little on your btc chart. Not much of a rise, which later shows it's only consolidation. Did you compare with the previous days, MSTR, HUT8, etc.
You have to get your entries right. Wait for pull backs, always.
The rising channel is between the blue and green lines. Enter at a blue arrow, exit at the green.
15:06 is somewhere in the oval, so the wrong place to enter long.
You would have got out at the red arrow.
Black arrow looks like a breakout high may be starting, but it's a fakeout. MACD woud probably have shown you that was coming, if you had its numbers set right. The standard ones are too long for day trading on a minute chart.
You would have realised it wasn't happening and got out around the black blob.
The volume may have dropped too. Upward breakouts need an increase.
15:16 looks like a high (above the "a" of "upward" - definitely the wrong place to enter, though because you'd joined an uptrend , you should have realised and got out with your head above water at the red arrow.
View attachment 345682
MARA was consolidating too. BTC wasn't moving much. You can't use a micrometer for influence between names. AND remember they can go the other way.


Riot -
"Five reasons to short Riot today."
It did drop so you should have been up.
If you were looking for a short you would have been looking for highs as entries. If you missed the start of day, the reason for the short is probably gone. Indeed, you get a "double bottom" so would be expecting a return upwards, which is what happened.
Ifthe drop loos strong, as it was, then wait for a green candle, there were a couple.


Think you're taking too much notice of odd candles for a 1 minute chart. Look on the 5 minute for reversal signals. They're much less reliable on 1 minute unless big, or showing a rejection of a strong level.
Neal Roberts mid day short lessons are often good.

I bought NVD3 a couple of weeks ago to hold into the split which is Monday. It doubled do I sold some. I'm hoping for a bit more in the next couple of days, but I have tight stop. Wouldn't be surprised to see NVDA back at 900, ie 90 next week..
Some long-term ones I have are down quite a bit, like metals. Uranium, anyone?
I had a lump in China with a stop loss well below. A bloody wick went and hit it. Cost about 20k. Can't win em all.

SMB capital have a good 1 hour vid on becoming a successful day trader. First they do say, go off and learn the fundamentals, and a load of standard sequences. They list out several things which you have to get right.

OK, thanks, so main your suggestion seems to be to analyse the movements in bitcoin more, not just those of the miner that I'm actually trading. Before I've just been deciding what it's trend is, and looking for a time to go with that based on what the miner is doing. I'll try looking at the details of trends on bitcoin more.

Marathon was clearly showing higher highs and higher lows on the one minute timeframe, and I got in just as it approached the previous low, expecting it to make a further low at that level. But it carried on down.

To be clear - I can't trade bitcoin itself as I'm not a professional trader.

 

[Arbu]

• 10/06/2024 15:22
  Coinbase Global Inc (All Sessions)
  -0.50
  24373
  24586.2
  -£106.60
• 10/06/2024 14:48
  Coinbase Global Inc (All Sessions)
  +0.50
  24535
  24400
  -£67.50
• 10/06/2024 14:36
  Coinbase Global Inc (All Sessions)
  -0.50
  24207
  24413
  -£103.00
• Total
  -£277.10

 

[Justin Passing]

OK, thanks, so main your suggestion seems to be to analyse the movements in bitcoin more, not just those of the miner that I'm actually trading. Before I've just been deciding what it's trend is, and looking for a time to go with that based on what the miner is doing. I'll try looking at the details of trends on bitcoin more.

I haven't been trading cryptos because the day ranges haven't been enough a lot of the time. You can't go off the micro-movements, you need a day when BTC drags the others up or down like on a bit of elastic..
But
No, it's not. as simple as that, you have to also weigh up things like yesterday's charts, other BTC related stocks, the mood of the market, all the levels on BTC and your stock's chart, the volume on the day at different parts of the price action, the ((mathematically speaking) first and second derivatives of the price as shown by) the MACD indicator or commodity channel, what happened in the premarket, whether accumulation or distribution has been going on, and the News. And that.
Instead you come up with feeble argument to support what you want the price to do, such as saying:

Marathon was clearly showing higher highs and higher lows on the one minute timeframe, and I got in just as it approached the previous low, expecting it to make a further low at that level. But it carried on down.

Where there was bugger all of an uptrend as I've already told you. You should have treated is as a range. Look at fib levels for trend typical pullbacks.
And you should have waited for confirmation which I've said before. Then you wouldn't have lost a penny.
You're telling me I'm wrong but you're losing money and I've put 7 figs in the bank.

To be clear - I can't trade bitcoin itself as I'm not a professional trader.

You can if you go to the right broker, but I wouldn't if I were you.

---

Not a classic breakout. I'd say there wasn't enough of a downtrend to break out from. That peak is more or less where the previous ones were so it's likely to just carry on sideways. You'd have to wait for it to be confirmed.
If it were a breakout upwards, you wouldn't open there anyway, you'd open just after a low, going with the trend, after confirmation.

No, MA's don't show trends inside a consolidation.
It's right after the open, right? Leave it, the bots are still sorting themselves out, it will be erratic.

OK it looks like a down trend is starting, with the highs folllowing the black line, so you could enter at green, but it's looking like breakout up so you'd close at about red.


You're going off weak bits of indications, making them fit what you want. Try textbook MAs.
Something like - a chart I had on the screen from today, XES.
10 and 20 EMA's the latter shaded under. Tradingview.
Only buy when you can see the 10 (yellow). You have to find the closes yoursen. You'd only have a few tiny losses. No yellow, don't buy. You'd get most of the rises.
Oh this is an annual but you get the idea.

today: Ok you could just hold all day, which is what I did.

 

[Justin Passing]

ONly watched Mara today. Like before.

Bitcoin was doing this:, ie coming up when the market opened

So I have no idea why Mara tanked, but I joined it
BItcoin was going up, so I was ok to enter long on Mara and hold, it until it retraced for one messy period of in/out.

Enter short on about green, Close on red. Enter long at blue, close at orange.

5 and a bit % going down, with 50k

Then 90k coming back up, I hopped out for much of between about16:00 and 17:00 back in making 11.2%

All leveraged at 5x which came to 13800 going down, which added to the pot for the rise which was 93k x 0.11 x 5
made approx a 65k day.
Those later pullbacks are about half a percent. I've learned that that much is worth holding through on Mara. The re-entry is hard to spot, then there's the spread, so it's easier to hold through.

That's about as easy as it gets. I had to miss an appointment with a nurse. I lied - said I had sciatica so couldn't move.

 

[Arbu]

ONly watched Mara today. Like before.

Bitcoin was doing this:, ie coming up when the market opened
View attachment 345927
So I have no idea why Mara tanked, but I joined it
BItcoin was going up, so I was ok to enter long on Mara and hold, it until it retraced for one messy period of in/out.

Enter short on about green, Close on red. Enter long at blue, close at orange.
View attachment 345926


5 and a bit % going down, with 50k

Then 90k coming back up, I hopped out for much of between about16:00 and 17:00 back in making 11.2%

All leveraged at 5x which came to 13800 going down, which added to the pot for the rise which was 93k x 0.11 x 5
made approx a 65k day.
Those later pullbacks are about half a percent. I've learned that that much is worth holding through on Mara. The re-entry is hard to spot, then there's the spread, so it's easier to hold through.

That's about as easy as it gets. I had to miss an appointment with a nurse. I lied - said I had sciatica so couldn't move.

So it seems your thought process was something like:

14:32 "Mara is plunging, no idea why, but I'll get in on that without waiting for a pullback. Never mind that the market has just opened, and is likely to be erratic because of the bots."
14:35 "bitcoin has made a lower high, but still I think it has reversed its downward trend and is about to go up, I'll close out and go long on Mara, even though this is against the trend, something I say never to do."
20:00 "Mara has come up following bitcoin, time to get out now"

Some time later perhaps "Ah, I was actually looking at Monday's chart for bitcoin [which is what you've posted], and today is Tuesday. Whoops, seems my whole premise for the long was wrong. Never mind, I made £65K anyway. Lucky me."

Buy the nurse a box of chocolates out of your £65K next time you see her, to make up for the missed appointment.

 

[Justin Passing]

It was the momentum of the Mara move which was compelling. The volume was huge, it wasn't muckin about. The volume doesn't tend to reverse in a matter of seconds from momentum, so with your finger on the button, you stand a good chance of coming out on top. It actually slowed down gracefully. If it had stalled earlier I'd have got out asap. Yes that can lose you a bit but when it's that heavy a fall the odds are more favourable. If you get a big move on lighter volume , especially past a whole number, the bots can trigger and spoil your day.

I'm advising YOU never to go against the trend because you seem to lose so much and it's safer. If you have a bounce off a level or something , trends are very much secondary to the shorter term effect
You're inventing rubbish. I never said I only go with a trend. P off.

What you're writing at 14:35 is crap...
I probably looked at HUT, I thought I looked at bitcoin because I had thr idea it was going up, and the screenshot I took later could have been an unrefreshed one, I don't know.

Not sure. Very odd, though it's not the first time. I thought it was headed up, I remember, But more importantly, I was thinking Mara would take back all the loss it had made from the off, which is what stocks do all the time as you know. I don't remember what I looked at when.
But no not lucky me, I would have got the same without a catalyst from the price action alone. I don't know why you can't do that.
Lucky was having a go with Apple right at the end of the day and taking another 7%.

Today I was using SMCI, no catalyst, nothing, just the price action. Went up $90 or something, 10%. It only reversed once. I only looked at it because I thought it was about time it followed NVDIA.. Shawn's lot were on other things. He made a big fuss about getting a small move on Tesla, he must have had a million bucks on it. Unless that was the day before. Apple was rocketing at the time, he was clearly tetchy.

The last couple of days have been easy for you I assume. I've ignored GME (Shawn & co did very well from it) apart from buying a couple of dips, and Apple and NVDA have been compelling. I was holding APPLE x2 in a long term account. So I was happy when the reaction to the talk came through but thought I'd better close when its market shut, London 4:30. So I missed half the rise. Hey ho.

I though AVGO would do OK so bought 10 shares on CFD. Couldn't trade that until the next day but it turned out fine.
Also bought a very few shares of ADBE today, half expecting them to not do well, relying on the price bouncing about where you can often catch it when it goes your way. That doesn't always work but I was feeling lucky after AVGO.
Isn't always good. Lost out on PANW.

I'll be sellling everything fragile early next week; because there's a witching Wednesday or whatever they call it coming up which means an adjustment, so it'll be back to the money market, 5% pa is 0.03% per day... I'll leave it a couple of days because of the spread etc.

I'm shorting Samsung - look at their chart. They've been been given a blow by Apple's latest AI announcement they won't be able to match.

 

[Arbu]

But no not lucky me, I would have got the same without a catalyst from the price action alone. I don't know why you can't do that.

Because if I had done that and it hadn't worked you would have said "Why do you persist in going against the trend? What was the catalyst?"

The last couple of days have been a bit better, yes. I gave up on trying to read the charts, and just tried to predict how I thought economic events would turn out. Thought the Fed would be more dovish though, so ended up down:

13/06/2024​	DEAL​	Spot Gold​	DFB​	-20​	2308.32​	2303.76​	£​	£91.20​	DIAAAAP5LC85HA9​
13/06/2024​	WITH​	Daily Admin Fee - FX Interest for 1 day Spot Gold​	-​	-​	-​	0​	£​	£-1.28​	CS2605201512171829578839816111926172​
13/06/2024​	WITH​	Daily Financing Adjustment - FX Interest for 3 day Spot Gold​	-​	-​	-​	0​	£​	£-22.50​	CS2605201512171829554770916111640226​
13/06/2024​	DEAL​	Spot Gold​	DFB​	+20​	2336.72​	2307.8​	£​	£-578.40​	DIAAAAP5J57KUA7​
12/06/2024​	DEAL​	EUR/USD​	DFB​	-5​	10826​	10847.6​	£​	£-108.00​	DIAAAAP5GUKNTAD​
12/06/2024​	DEAL​	Spot Gold​	DFB​	+20​	2313.87​	2336.44​	£​	£451.40​	DIAAAAP5GACDBAU​

 

[Justin Passing]

Because if I had done that and it hadn't worked you would have said "Why do you persist in going against the trend? What was the catalyst?"

Excrement. I already wrote that I never said I always need a trend. A level isn't a trend.
I also told you not to risk more than a very small amout on any trade, so if you lose it's part of your plan. With your pot you can't afford to be losing tens of £ at a time.
Only going with the trend is a method of cocking things up less.
Up to you what you do.
You don't seem to be able to consider more than one thing at a time, retrospectively finding one small thing to blame for your lack of ability to assimilate more if it goes wrong. That has been the theme since you arrived.

What I alluded to in a recent reply about the psychological probem, is that once it's obvious that your trade was wrong, you stay wrong and lose even more. You get whatever mental mileage you can out of the wailing, blind to when it's a crap argument.
It's like giving someone the advice to look out for cars before crossing the road. They step out in front of a bus and wail that you didn't mention buses. Then they let the bus scrape them as far as possible against the tar to amplify the claim, and their victim status. Then take the **** out of the advisor.

Gold - You've given up looking at the price action and want to have a go at something else now, based on your own thoughts. Bloomberg speakers said their estimation of the chances of a rates staying the same were north of 98%, but you thought differently. And you thought gold would instantly jump sufficiently in your favour, wrong again. You anticipated what you thought would happen, another mistake - told you before, participate don't anticipate.
All predictably losing strategies.

--
If you actually want to win:
find a simple, standard, recognised winning % strategy, back test it to make sure it would have worked for you over a period. Look around for everything you can think of which might stop it working, at the same time. If you see anything, don't enter.
Implement it in the simulator. Don't use real money until you can execute it to win most of the time.

If you actually want to lose:
carry on what you're doing.

 

[Arbu]

You didn't tell me that you always follow the trend, but you told me that I should always follow the trend and said "were you the child you always did the opposite of what he was told?" when I did otherwise.

When is it obvious that a trade is wrong? You can't just close out the moment it goes against you, you have to have some conviction in your ideas. You make it sound as if this is so simple, but of course it's not.

I thought that rates would stay the same, like everyone else, so that possibility was factored in. But there was a lot of possibility of dovish talk to move the dollar the other way.

I've been looking all year for a winning strategy, haven't found one. Again you make out that it's so simple. And how do you backtest it anyway? I suppose you can write some computer code to do so, but only if it's completely mechanistic, which it won't be.

14/06/2024	Tesla Motors Inc (All Sessions)	DFB	0.5	15:19	17909	16:37	17889	£	-£10.00
14/06/2024	Riot Blockchain Inc (All Sessions)	DFB	10	15:07	1079.6	15:23	1065.4	£	-£142.00
14/06/2024	Apple Inc (All Sessions)	DFB	-0.5	14:50	21376	15:20	21331	£	£22.50
14/06/2024	Tesla Motors Inc (All Sessions)	DFB	0.5	14:51	18287	15:00	18137	£	-£75.00
14/06/2024	Hut 8 Mining Corp (US)	DFB	10	14:30	1166.7	14:36	1177.2	£	£105.00
									-£99.50​

 

[Arbu]

Luckier with my punting today:

Type	Description	Size		Opening		Closing	Amount
DEAL	Tesla Motors Inc (All Sessions)	-0.5	15:49	18465	15:59	18556.1	-£45.55
DEAL	Tesla Motors Inc (All Sessions)	0.5	15:23	18227	15:42	18461	£117.00
DEAL	Marathon Digital Holdings Inc (All Sessions)	2	14:57	1879.8	15:30	1910.1	£60.60
DEAL	Marathon Digital Holdings Inc (All Sessions)	2	14:57	1879.8	15:29	1915.1	£70.60
DEAL	Tesla Motors Inc (All Sessions)	0.1	14:32	17872	14:58	18066	£19.40
DEAL	Tesla Motors Inc (All Sessions)	0.1	14:32	17872	14:51	18060	£18.80
DEAL	NVIDIA Corp (All Sessions)	-0.5	14:30	13291	14:45	13288	£1.50
DEAL	NVIDIA Corp (All Sessions)	-0.5	14:30	13291	14:38​	13349	-£29.00
DEAL	Tesla Motors Inc (All Sessions)	0.1	14:32	17872	14:38	18027	£15.50
DEAL	Tesla Motors Inc (All Sessions)	0.2	14:32	17872	14:34	17938	£13.20
							£242.05​

 

[Arbu]

• 18/06/2024 15:20
  Riot Blockchain Inc (All Sessions)
  -4
  1046.4
  1069.6
  -£92.80
• 18/06/2024 15:20
  Riot Blockchain Inc (All Sessions)
  -4
  1046.4
  1069.6
  -£92.80
• 18/06/2024 15:12
  QUALCOMM Inc (All Sessions)
  +0.50
  22947
  22890
  -£28.50
• 18/06/2024 14:50
  NVIDIA Corp (All Sessions)
  -1
  13146
  13243
  -£97.00
• 18/06/2024 14:34
  NVIDIA Corp (All Sessions)
  -0.50
  13082
  13149
  -£33.50
• -£344.60

bitcoin was in a good downward trend, so I picked Riot to follow it down. Both reversed and came up.

 

[Justin Passing]

"but you told me that I should always follow the trend and said "were you the child you always did the opposite of what he was told?" when I did otherwise."
Yep. I said only go with the trend, you went against it and lost. QED.

When is it obvious that a trade is wrong?

As I said, you need a loss limit. Whether you believe a losing position will come back or not, once you've hit your limit, get out.
ALso you should (almost) always have a planned stop loss position which you quantify before you enter, which will prove your thesis - your justification for entering - was wrong. It's often a previous level or breakout or reversion, so you can work out your trade if it goes OK, is say a 4:1 risk. If it's not high enough, don't enter. 3:1 is usually quoted as the cutoff.
If you enter just because it looks like it might be ok, you will lose much too often.


I haven't been attracted by a crypto related move in the last couple of days. Today as an eg, BTC went down, Mara went up.
There were too many strong trends in the big caps which were easier. I took a rash guess on something and lost £13k which woke me up. I stuck to simple scalps until I'd recovered it.. That's what Catena does: if something goes against him he waits for a simple high probablility play and puts millions on it.

Today $34.000,000,000,000 was traded on Nvidia, they said. Mad .



That -$97 trade
I was IN around there too

I think that's the right place.
The problem - the trend was long and you went short.

 

[Justin Passing]

But there was a lot of possibility of dovish talk to move the dollar the other way.

Don't act on anticipations. Participate.

I've been looking all year for a winning strategy, haven't found one.

I've given you some, the books are full.
Bloomberg interviewee was asked "What's a major problem individuals make?"
Answer "Hubris".
You do not know much, OK. You seem to think you know better. Understand what you're advised, and execute it with discipline. Backtest it .
This would do:

https://www.diynot.com/diy/attachments/1718067313522-png.345864/

I don't think you've tried any strategy. You haven't mentioned one.

And how do you backtest it anyway?

What? You can print a chart and use a piece of blank paper to slide across it. Why ask that? Because you couldn't be bothered to look it up?

I suppose you can write some computer code to do so,

Yes, I could. Tradingview (free version included) has a way of doing it.

but only if it's completely mechanistic, which it won't be.

Yes it is mechanistic. Results are probabilistic. That's all you need.

bitcoin was in a good downward trend, so I picked Riot to follow it down. Both reversed and came up.

But you had inadequate risk management. I expect you didn't enter on a pullback and wait for confirmaton. You have to get everything right, not just one thing.


RIOT
Oh I must be psychic. You entered short at an obvious BOTTOM. That was silly, wasn't it. 5min candles

On the end of the 1 min chart,

It shows you waited far too long to get out.

There was really no trend there on Riot - two points doesn't make a trend. BTC was descending but Coin, Hut and MSTR were rising.
Maybe there was news overriding the btc trend.


Write it on your screen - IF THERE'S NO ENTRY POINT, DON'T ENTER.

 

[Justin Passing]

Do you scan the screeners from time to time? China (KWEB or KWBP) was doing ok then China slumped. I have like £10 worth just to monitor it.
On the screener, I saw HHPD was doing ok, so bought a bit yesterday.. Jumped 5% overnight. China has a couple of things going for it, with a couple of problems - we'll see. India is sort of 3 and 1.