Surrender Treaty Explained
- Thread starter The Baker
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corbyn I am really not sure where or how these lush green pastures exist.
The UK already trades with zero tariffs to 70% of the world and and average of 3.5% for everything else.
If these lush green pastures never materialise would you start to think they never existed or would it be the fault of the 'wrong Brexit'.
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This explains Boris deal. It shafts manufacturers.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1186346506854506498.html
It now seems likely that BJ can find a majority in Parliament for his Brexit plan, even though amendments to the WAB may give him delays and problems. But attention will inevitably shift to the future relationship. A short thread. @CER_EU /1
Most people in UK have no idea how hard a Brexit BJ is trying to achieve. His Canada-style FTA version, like what @theresa_may proposed, would give services firms little access to the single market. But unlike her plan it would also exclude manufacturers from single market. /2
By rejecting the idea of aligning with EU rules on goods, BJ will ensure that EU offers only a thin FTA. EU says the threat of Singapore-on-Thames means it wdn't offer zero tariffs. In any case checks for customs and single mkt rules on borders would mean much friction. /3
That is really bad for car, pharma, chemicals, aerospace, food-processing & any industry that requires integrated supply chains. So what is best model of Brexit that UK could aim for? /4
Economically, Norway offers best model - UK stays in single market. But that could probably not work politically: UK would be a rule-taker for goods and services. IMHO the best possible deal for UK economy that cd just work for EU & UK politically is 'Jersey model'. /5
As my colleagues @SamuelMarcLowe & @JohnSpringford wrote in Jan 2018 (
Holding out hope for a half-way Brexit houseThe UK is considering 'managed divergence' from EU rules, which the 27 will reject. A better strategy would be to remain in the customs union and single market for goods.https://www.cer.eu/publications/archive/bulletin-article/2018/holding-out-hope-half-way-brexit-house
) this means UK staying in EU customs union & single market for goods, but going its own way for services. /6
May's 'Chequers Plan' inched towards this, offering to align with EU rules on goods. But EU said no, because customs provisions were v complex and in its view unworkable; & because plan failed to reassure EU with 'level playing field' provisions to stop UK becoming Singapore. /7
Those objections can be met via UK offering to stay in customs union (I believe EU would grant a consultation mechanism on trade policy), & reassurances on following relevant EU rules on social/envt/consumer/tax/state aid policies. /8
OK, EU also disliked Chequers for cherry-picking single mkt (in for goods but not services, like CH, yet Swiss take free movement of labour). But I was told at the time by EU officials that if UK had not messed up its customs and LPF proposals that it would have been hard to.../9
..reject Chequers out of hand. Anyway a responsible UK govt would ask for something like the Jersey model, which would at least help manufacturing, which accounts for half of UK exports. /10
The other thing the UK should focus on, under-discussed, is security co-op post-Brexit. UK has much to offer in policing, counter-terrorism, defence & foreign policy. Commission has taken hard line that 3rd countries cannot be plugged in closely, lest precedents are created. /11
That line is understandable but should shift, as many member-states recognise. Where EU law applies, UK must of course accept ECJ role & EU rules on data. But EU must be ready to build bespoke structures that allow UK to contribute the maximum possible to European security. ENDS
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1186346506854506498.html
It now seems likely that BJ can find a majority in Parliament for his Brexit plan, even though amendments to the WAB may give him delays and problems. But attention will inevitably shift to the future relationship. A short thread. @CER_EU /1
Most people in UK have no idea how hard a Brexit BJ is trying to achieve. His Canada-style FTA version, like what @theresa_may proposed, would give services firms little access to the single market. But unlike her plan it would also exclude manufacturers from single market. /2
By rejecting the idea of aligning with EU rules on goods, BJ will ensure that EU offers only a thin FTA. EU says the threat of Singapore-on-Thames means it wdn't offer zero tariffs. In any case checks for customs and single mkt rules on borders would mean much friction. /3
That is really bad for car, pharma, chemicals, aerospace, food-processing & any industry that requires integrated supply chains. So what is best model of Brexit that UK could aim for? /4
Economically, Norway offers best model - UK stays in single market. But that could probably not work politically: UK would be a rule-taker for goods and services. IMHO the best possible deal for UK economy that cd just work for EU & UK politically is 'Jersey model'. /5
As my colleagues @SamuelMarcLowe & @JohnSpringford wrote in Jan 2018 (
Holding out hope for a half-way Brexit houseThe UK is considering 'managed divergence' from EU rules, which the 27 will reject. A better strategy would be to remain in the customs union and single market for goods.https://www.cer.eu/publications/archive/bulletin-article/2018/holding-out-hope-half-way-brexit-house
) this means UK staying in EU customs union & single market for goods, but going its own way for services. /6
May's 'Chequers Plan' inched towards this, offering to align with EU rules on goods. But EU said no, because customs provisions were v complex and in its view unworkable; & because plan failed to reassure EU with 'level playing field' provisions to stop UK becoming Singapore. /7
Those objections can be met via UK offering to stay in customs union (I believe EU would grant a consultation mechanism on trade policy), & reassurances on following relevant EU rules on social/envt/consumer/tax/state aid policies. /8
OK, EU also disliked Chequers for cherry-picking single mkt (in for goods but not services, like CH, yet Swiss take free movement of labour). But I was told at the time by EU officials that if UK had not messed up its customs and LPF proposals that it would have been hard to.../9
..reject Chequers out of hand. Anyway a responsible UK govt would ask for something like the Jersey model, which would at least help manufacturing, which accounts for half of UK exports. /10
The other thing the UK should focus on, under-discussed, is security co-op post-Brexit. UK has much to offer in policing, counter-terrorism, defence & foreign policy. Commission has taken hard line that 3rd countries cannot be plugged in closely, lest precedents are created. /11
That line is understandable but should shift, as many member-states recognise. Where EU law applies, UK must of course accept ECJ role & EU rules on data. But EU must be ready to build bespoke structures that allow UK to contribute the maximum possible to European security. ENDS
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It wasn't brexit in the first place. So how could he have voted against it.
How you like to twist the facts.
dishonest Ryler is pretending that the Voting form for the referendum said "(1) remain (2) Leave under certain terms to be defined by Ryler and no others."
it didn't.
Resigning from the EU is leaving the EU. Switzerland, Norway, Turkey, Canada, Russia and Guernsey are not in the EU. None of them need your approval or to meet criteria of your choice. Neither does UK.
it didn't.
Resigning from the EU is leaving the EU. Switzerland, Norway, Turkey, Canada, Russia and Guernsey are not in the EU. None of them need your approval or to meet criteria of your choice. Neither does UK.
Brexit has never been defined by ANY politician. Soup of the day.
Troll
Dont feed the trolls.....
D
durhamplumber
Not to worry Boris will sort it...
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