Common Sense at last.

[Gerrydelasel]

The problem of youth offending is overwhelmingly correlated with single parent households, which are themselves overwhelmingly correlated with the advance of the welfare state and the cultural dismissal of personal responsibility (from which family values flow).

 

[Notch7]

From another source, I found

While searching you might want to have a look at this:

Criminal investigation launched into 'antisemitic hate crimes' within Labour Party
Specialist officers are examining an internal Labour dossier of cases

 

[SirGalahad]

The problem of youth offending is overwhelmingly correlated with single parent households, which are themselves overwhelmingly correlated with the advance of the welfare state and the cultural dismissal of personal responsibility (from which family values flow).

There is correlation of increased levels of crime and single parent families but you have anything to back up your second point as it seems to have have been taken off the back of a postage stamp.

Answers on a postcard.

 

[Ian H]

That's my point. Why didn't he mention Black's.

Because it’s so obvious?

 

[durhamplumber]

The problem of youth offending is overwhelmingly correlated with single parent households, which are themselves overwhelmingly correlated with the advance of the welfare state and the cultural dismissal of personal responsibility (from which family values flow).

Utter bolox,like saying birth rate has dropped because fewer storks to deliver them

 

[Gerrydelasel]

you have anything to back up your second point as it seems to have have been taken off the back of a postage stamp.

Pretty simple. State subsidise people to have kids alone by guaranteeing them income and child care and...you get more people having kids alone.

https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/6817/economics/the-growing-size-of-the-welfare-state-in-the-uk/
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/6542031.stm

 

[SirGalahad]

Now can you break out how much of the rise in benefit spending is due to one parent families and how much is from the rising number of people who are retired and on pensions.

You have taken two data sets and made a correlation but without providing data for the causation - one has to cause the other. I can link eating more greens to heating the worlds atmosphere both are correlated but there is no causation.

 

[Gerrydelasel]

You have taken two data sets and made a correlation but without providing data for the causation - one has to cause the other.

I didn't say one causes the other, I said they were highly correlated. It's fiendishly difficult to prove causation. But the hypothesis conforms to the basic principle of economic incentives.

 

[SirGalahad]

I didn't say one causes the other, I said they were highly correlated. It's fiendishly difficult to prove causation. But the hypothesis conforms to the basic principle of economic incentives.

So a lack of welfare benefits would reduce single parent households? I suggest looking at data from the US to counter that.

I can correlate that less job security leads to family breakups and single families.

Until you prove causation correlating data because it fits your hypothesis is not the basis of good research or analysis. I thought as an Engineer you would be rigorous in your analysis.

 

[Gerrydelasel]

So a lack of welfare benefits would reduce single parent households? I suggest looking at data from the US to counter that.

US data look essentially the same as UK. What details do you mean?

 

[SirGalahad]

US data look essentially the same as UK. What details do you mean?

Welfare benefits and incentives in the US. You think because two sets of data seem correlated you can draw conclusions on causation.

 

[Gerrydelasel]

Welfare benefits and incentives in the US.

But they're the same as here? Welfare has increased dramatically since the 1960s, so have their single parent households.

 

[SirGalahad]

Gerry. Your looking at aggregate data. Also the fact you got the data from the Heritage foundation I would even question the authenticity.

Can you tell me federal welfare spending for single families by number of children?

Defence spending in the US has gone up, Police spending etc - that's natural for it to rise - there are more people but does it mean they are correlated? No.

I really can't say anymore than this - don't mix causation and correlation.

 

[Brigadier]

Gerry. Your looking at aggregate data. Also the fact you got the data from the Heritage foundation I would even question the authenticity.

Can you tell me federal welfare spending for single families by number of children?

Defence spending in the US has gone up, Police spending etc - that's natural for it to rise - there are more people but does it mean they are correlated? No.

I really can't say anymore than this - don't mix causation and correlation.

He didn't; he specifically used the word "correlation".
Strawman is apt here.

 

[motorbiking]

The argument Gerry is making is more easily proved with this:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentan...ableehouseholdswhereallmembershaveneverworked