True (theoretically talking and thinking globally), but the virus will have disappeared by then, because vaccination reduces the possibility of catching it, reduces the severity of it if you do catch it, and perhaps most importantly, reduces the number of variants circulating.
It may not disappear, as it can circulate forever even in a vaccinated, or naturally infected population, because there's no complete immunity from catching it. Some of those with antibodies still get the infection, and especially with the Delta and newer variant, can still pass it on.
You can calculate an
effective R number from the catchability/transmission ability. If that remains over 1 then it keeps spreading. If you stop
enough people meeting carriers in a way whereby they can catch it, then you wipe it out. Things like masks reduce the transmission but not much.
In the early days they were saying what percentage of the population would have to have immunity (herd) to make it die out, as 1-1/R₀. But the maths gets complicated if the
transmission immunity is only partial.
The second link below shows that with 91% vaccinated and a vaccine which is 70% effective, you get herd immunity. The vaccines ARE 70% effective at stopping you dying, great - because nobody dies, but they are much less good at stopping you catching and passing on the virus.
R
effective would be a function of several numbers, like age, temperature, vaccine etc etc.
https://plus.maths.org/content/maths-minute-r0-and-herd-immunity
https://plus.maths.org/content/herd-immunity-will-protect-us-all-why-do-i-need-get-vaccinated
NB there's a new, sub Delta variant which is a bit more catchable. Numbers aren't clear yet.
Most people are little affected now, few are dying, which may be acceptable. With higher infection numbers though, more will be hospitalised, and the chance of a new new variant goes up.
The new drugs from Merck and I think Pfizer claim to stop the virus early on (nasal passages), so would reduce transmission from those who catch it.
I don't understand much of this stuff so might have something wrong, but that's the way I think it is.
