IMF predicting UK the worse performing economy according to the news..

[fillyboy]

Their forecast for 2022 was wrong as late as Q3 2022. So I don't hold much faith in it being accurate.

Just a bit, their forecast for 2022 was revised at least twice taking us from one of the lowest growth rates in the G7 to the highest.

 

[diy_fun_uk]

Why? Are you financially exposed to an increase in interest rates?

. . . or are you just moaning 'cos your mortgage is £20 more than last month?

Just on one of my BTLs that's been on a very low rate for 10+ years Like a fool I didn't fix. Minimal exposure in the grand scheme of things, however if low interest rates were returning I'd be happy

 

[motorbiking]

I think its likely interest rates will continue to rise. We can't have interest rates significantly below inflation for long. In general there seems to be a move to discourage BTL with mortgages, particularly where people are simply using their credit to leverage.

With all the costs and requirements, I'd wonder if you can break even now?

 

[Ivor Windybottom]

The "independent" Bank Of England pretty much just shadows the USA's interest rate. If they rise and we don't then the exchange rate of the £ suffers, so everything imported goes up in price and we get inflation. The £ vs $ rate is probably about as bad as it needs to get, we just don't have the wiggle room to diverge from what they're doing.

Interest rates are still historically very low, the previous period of near-zero interest rates was just a blip in history, normality has resumed.

 

[sxturbo]

We're supposed to conclude that the IMF must comprise bitter EU politicians, biased civil servants with an axe to grind and biased economists whose aim is biased anti brexhit economic data.

On low borrowing rates, its a disgrace, we need to reduce reliance on personal credit, and return to an emphasis on prudent saving. The savers are subsidising bankers profits.

Blup

the problem is the wages haven't gone up accordingly, so everyone is effectively earning less, meaning there has been no money to save.

i got a substantial payrise (10k) straight after the pandemic for switching job roles, the pay rise has now (once the mortgage renews) been swallowed up by the increases in the general cost of living, meaning that a year later i am no better off than i was, but also had i not switched jobs, things would be extremely tight right now, as it happens we've fairing ok and havnt had to take a change to our lifestyle which isnt extravagent. we're both still driving round in 17 year old cars, have no debts and no loans.

the government wanted to kick start the economy, and rather than work a plan that increased wages, they offered cheap borrowing so that people could afford to make non essential purchases, this would mean they could keep the poor people poor and the rich rich. it was a short term plan for short term gain.

 

[ajohn]

taking us from one of the lowest growth rates in the G7 to the highest.

Growth is irrelevent. Recovery to earlier GDP levels and increasing that is the important aspect. Fact is in that respect the UK fell short of others.

 

[ellal]

The "independent" Bank Of England pretty much just shadows the USA's interest rate. If they rise and we don't then the exchange rate of the £ suffers, so everything imported goes up in price and we get inflation.

Try telling deluded brexiteers that...

The pound dropped against the Euro after the vote and thus weakened the UK economy as we are an importing nation...

And that made the UK more vulnerable to other currencies such as the dollar, and so the problem simply continues...

That's why the US is in no hurry to sign a trade deal, as they are waiting for easier pickings!
(The UK health system being a major goal)

Increasing interest rates might be a temporary sticking plaster, but as GDP won't rise as much as were we in the EU and increased rates just stifles the internal market then the inevitable will simply arrive faster...

The UK is in terminal decline, and at some point the money markets are going to turn around and say 'we want our money back' !

 

[JP_]

Yep. We've shot ourselves in the foot, and rather than seeking aid, we're pretending it will be ok while life slowly drains from us.

The people's in charge are still convinced all will be ok in the end. It's ok for them, they're all rich and a failing UK economy won't harm them.

 

[Ivor Windybottom]

the government wanted to kick start the economy, and rather than work a plan that increased wages, they offered cheap borrowing so that people could afford to make non essential purchases, this would mean they could keep the poor people poor and the rich rich. it was a short term plan for short term gain.

Correct, that was the plan, and it was in 1997. The current lot embraced the entire concept and carried on with it. To be fair they didn't have much choice - people had got used to low taxes, high spending, high borrowing. So if the tories/lib dems had reverted back to the Major days of living within our means they'd have been booted out the next time around, for being the party poopers that stopped all the fun.

I am certain that the people in charge know that it's all unsustainable and we are definitely going to crash into a wall at some point fairly soon. They're all just taking as much as they can in salaries and expenses until we reach that point. Then they'll blame Putin, Truss, Brexit, the weather or whatever.

 

[ellal]

Talk about kicking a brexiteer when it's down...

Now the BofE has waded in with the bleeding obvious...

"Brexit is damaging UK growth more quickly than expected, the deputy governor of the Bank of England said today."

In its monetary policy report today the Bank says:

"The effects of Brexit on trade are now estimated to be emerging more quickly than previously assumed, and that lowers productivity somewhat."

Of course brexiteers will scoff at this, as they did with the IMF report...

I guess all they have to fall back on to are their unicorns

 

[cwhaley]

Both Sunak and Truss are members of the IMF, and - conveniently - they were the only remaining 'selected' candidates to be PM. I get a little suspect of what these announcements really mean.

Looking at the rich and influential background Sunak has, along with the incredible wealth created from his wife's social credit firm 'Infosys', the job of PM looks only to give him power and influence at a national level in order to enact policies which benefit him and his friends. The true string-pullers are the donors, 'think tanks' and groups like the IMF.

I wish I could find a list of individual IMF members.

 

[Notch7]

i got a substantial payrise (10k) straight after the pandemic for switching job roles, the pay rise has now (once the mortgage renews) been swallowed up by the increases in the general cost of living, meaning that a year later i am no better off than i was

Ive been thinking that the increase in energy, mortage and day to day stuff like food means that the pay rises the nurses etc etc are asking for wont even touch the sides -especially those in rented accommodation

Your point that you got a substantial raise but youve ended up with no more disposable income than you had, rather gives me the impression even if the pubic sector get their 10%+ pay demands, it wont help a great deal.

 

[Notch7]

Just a bit, their forecast for 2022 was revised at least twice taking us from one of the lowest growth rates in the G7 to the highest.

meaningless given the UK economy dropped by 10% in 2020

 

[ellal]

even if the pubic sector get their 10%

A 10% rise in the 'pubic' sector?

The average aged brexiteer couldn't even get a rise at all !

But then they're known as 'little' englanders for a reason

 

[transam]

IMF are rarely right or accurate about any of there fore casts

Ever