So you've met the **** aswellBut the single attempt scenario is a hypothetical one, because I wouldn't cope with being in the company of Noel Edmonds without punching him and being dragged off him by several heavies.
So you've met the **** aswellBut the single attempt scenario is a hypothetical one, because I wouldn't cope with being in the company of Noel Edmonds without punching him and being dragged off him by several heavies.
Why what? Delilah?WHY?????? (not the noel edmonds bit!)
There is in the scenario that Kes has defined, viz:imamartian said:but 18 of those 19 times there won't be £250k in the box
______________________________...by a combination of blind chance and good fortune, whittle the lot down to two boxes, yours and one out there. The boxes have in them £250,000 and £1.
It's the conventional way of computing and expressing a probability of this type.Thermo said:why will 19 out of 20 times the prize be in the other box.
Not in the scenario that Kes has defined.joe-90 said:Random chance doesn't favour any of the boxes so the two that are left will have an equal chance of being any two boxes.
19 times out of 20 (of the times that only two boxes are left unopened), the desired prize will be in one of the boxes that isn't the 'owned' box.
Therefore if you don't swap you will win that desired prize only once in 20 attempts.
Therefore if you swap you will win that desired prize 19 times in 20 attempts.
I'm a bit too dim to get the joke here, unless it's a pun on Cosmos (Kesmoz?), but no.Kes you don't have a pet bird called moz do you?
I know.kevnurse said:correct
Perhaps you misunderstand the word "attempts". Perhaps not. Either way, you're wrong.Err, no.Therefore if you swap you will win that desired prize 19 times in 20 attempts.
That theory is flawed.I agree that, at the outset of the show, the player has odds of 19-1 of holding the desired prize. However, the odds reduce sequentially to 18-1, 17-1, 16-1, etc, as the boxes are opened. Each time a box is opened it is a game in its own right.
Indeed so.We are told that the desired prize is still in the show with only 2 boxes left.
That's a non sequitur.Therefore, the odds in the final game have reduced (as explained) to 1-1, which is evens.
That isn't the correct way to compute the probability of a given prize being in the singled-out box. But you've certainly cottoned on to the popular way of getting it wrong.Don't make the mistake of thinking its only one game. It isn't. It is one show with 19 games of reducing odds.