Wrong assumption, I'm afraid, Tony.
UNLESS the temperature of at least part of the heat exchanger(s) is BELOW 56 degrees, NO condensation will take place inside the boiler. None. Nada.
The flue gas including steam will be significantly hotter than that before it hits a cooler heat exchanger surface, which means that depending on the design of the fluegas path, more or less of the fluegas will hardly be cooled at all! My comment about 'visible plume carried in the fluegas stream will be around 'condensing temperature' was actually b****cks: either its ABOVE dewpoint, with no condensation occurring, or below, in which case ALL the latent heat will have been released to somewhere. Problem is the process will be dynamic, with turbulence in the gasflow mixing cooler and hotter bits. The key point is whether the average temperature in the cool end of the HX is above or below dewpoint.
Correct that some heat will transfer from flue to air intake, so will not be lost to outside. This transfer also explains some of the cooling in the flue (along with expansion cooling), so that more 'visible plume' will form as it passes through. Once again, though, what percentage of the remaining latent heat in the fluegas actually finds its way into the intake air is a complicated question, depending on length of flue, wall thickness, flow rates, turbulence, .... .
My two main concerns about this efficiency question are, firstly, that the majority of retrofitted condensing boilers are VERY unlikely to operate 'efficiently' without extra work on the associated controls and pipework and, secondly, that very few people actually understand all physics and other issues that are relevant. (I exclude myself from the 'very few'! ) As a result, targets that the government expects to meet on the back of a transition to condensing boilers will be missed by miles.
Tony's point about a system operating at less than 20% of rated maximum is also confusing and 'old thinking'. Most (all?) SEDBUK A boilers have modulating burners which can usually operate over an output range from (say) 25% to 100% of rated output with no problem. It is well-known that if you run a condenser at or close to 100% it will not be very efficient. I can't see why 20 percent is relevant or even a realistic level: once heat demand falls below the equivalent of the minimum modulation level, the burner will cycle on and off. Whether this turns out to be 'efficient' is probably not a simple yes / no answer but I can see no particular reason why it should be especially INefficient. (A reason why it was considered Best Practice to operate large conventional boilers at 80% or higher was because of the RISK of condensation occurring and rotting the heat-exchanger. These rules no longer apply.)