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Which studies? We can debate them here.
New Covid rules for the UK coming into effect for...
- Thread starter Mottie
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Which studies? We can debate them here.
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Some one forgot to mention Ferguson produced a nest of curve that predict various responses over time ahead of them actually happening. Reality follows one of them and they give an indication of the effects of counter measures. As May said when looking at a set of them - "Some of these numbers are extremely high". So some stupid report somewhere or the other only states the high ones. Things have changed - mass vaccination and a new variant. His predictions will be based on various factors relating to that. As info comes in they will refine and we will find out which one we are on. He wont have said Omicron is less serious He will have picked a range of seriousness. He wont assume some specific vaccine effectiveness, just a range. Reality has to decide which curve is correct. I like the bloke actually. When on TV he gives dead straight answers. When on an early panel discussing what will happen when covid appeared he had a way way better idea than any of the others. He even pointed that actions had to be balanced against the economy. The only one that did.
There was an interesting comments on deaths lunchtime. Currently Omicron doesn't figure as those that had died had Delta and average duration in hospital is too long for Omicron to figure. Then mention of the age factor and Omicron spread. The first age to get an idea about that will be people in the 40's and probably 50's in increasing numbers over time followed by even older. This is always the way things go - nothing new at all. The only change is more testing of school kids showing extremely high levels of infection there. Kids are a well know spreader of flu so this has probably being going on all of the time.
Only a barmpot would fail to see why masks limits the spread. It spreads by aerosols when we breath and talk. Those can be breathed in by others and also fall on surfaces causing what they refer to as touch points. People pick it up on their hands. Breathing doesn't put much out, Talking, shouting, singing, coughing and sneezing all much worse.
Watch the last Xmas lecture for kids on iplayer if you want to see why masks. Also a clear idea of what herd immunity means in practice. Even the R number. Probably aimed at 10 year olds so most should be able to cope with it. Or breath on a cold mirror and wonder where the moisture comes from.
Interesting comment a couple of days ago, 10% of the population hasn't had any vaccinations at all. A lot of people. The probabilities of them facing reality are way way higher currently than they have been in the past.
There was an interesting comments on deaths lunchtime. Currently Omicron doesn't figure as those that had died had Delta and average duration in hospital is too long for Omicron to figure. Then mention of the age factor and Omicron spread. The first age to get an idea about that will be people in the 40's and probably 50's in increasing numbers over time followed by even older. This is always the way things go - nothing new at all. The only change is more testing of school kids showing extremely high levels of infection there. Kids are a well know spreader of flu so this has probably being going on all of the time.
Only a barmpot would fail to see why masks limits the spread. It spreads by aerosols when we breath and talk. Those can be breathed in by others and also fall on surfaces causing what they refer to as touch points. People pick it up on their hands. Breathing doesn't put much out, Talking, shouting, singing, coughing and sneezing all much worse.
Watch the last Xmas lecture for kids on iplayer if you want to see why masks. Also a clear idea of what herd immunity means in practice. Even the R number. Probably aimed at 10 year olds so most should be able to cope with it. Or breath on a cold mirror and wonder where the moisture comes from.
Interesting comment a couple of days ago, 10% of the population hasn't had any vaccinations at all. A lot of people. The probabilities of them facing reality are way way higher currently than they have been in the past.
D
Deleted member 18243
Thanks; very technical indeed but it still doesn't chime with what I've seen "on the ground" these past 2 years, which is that this disease is nothing unusual.
Also, it doesn't answer why (breaks his own lockdown rules) Ferguson's predictions of bird flu and swine flu deaths turned out to be extremely wrong, which was what I actually asked.
Ferguson is just another hypocritical apparatchik; there's one rule for him and hundreds of rules for us.
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Deleted member 18243
I'm not talking about whether masks work or not - we've already done that to death on here, several times. The point I'm making now is why nobody who makes anti-mask statements is allowed on TV, radio or in the papers. If such people the idiots they are made out to be, surely they'd be easily disproved in an intelligent broadcast debate.
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As an individual, your on the ground observations mean nought.
I could say......
"I have not seen a fatal car crash in the last 2 years, therefore fatal crashes do not occur."
Which is nonsense.
You would need to visit hundreds of hospitals, to view the situation, and talk to staff, to get a better perspective.
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They get the same coverage as flat earthers, hollow moon believers and those who think the "elite" are lizard people. Sound about right to me.
D
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I have seen many fatal and non-fatal car crashes (or rather, the results of them) therefore by extrapolation I know they will also be happening when I don't see them.
For masks read about the Denmark experiment.
Your comments are also invited over other matters that you have glossed over: the why-Sweden-fared-better-with-fewer-restrictions issue (post 95) and the why-France-fared-worse-with-over-zealous-Omicron restrictions issue (post 145)
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No they didn't, https://www.businessinsider.com/swe...egy-failed-higher-death-rate-2021-8?r=US&IR=T.
"Sweden has recorded more COVID-19 cases per capita than most countries so far: Since the start of the pandemic, roughly 11 out of every 100 people in Sweden have been diagnosed with COVID-19, compared with 9.4 out of every 100 in the UK and 7.4 per 100 in Italy. Sweden has also recorded around 145 COVID-19 deaths for every 100,000 people — around three times more than Denmark, eight times more than Finland, and nearly 10 times more than Norway."
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Your figures of cases per 100 in the UK and Sweden are at odds with Worldometer so which shall we believe?
11:9.4 or 13:19
Why then is the UK also so much worse than Sweden; not to mention Denmark, Norway and Finland?
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They aren't my figures, you'd need to ask the "Insider".
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Actually, a quick look on Worldometer shows that the figures are a close match around the time the Insider article was printed.
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August 20th Worldometer figures;
Uk population 67,220,000, total cases 6,430,428, cases per 100 = 9.57
Sweden population 10,350,000, total cases 1,117,567, cases per 100 = 10.8
Pretty close Id say.
The ironic bit is that since then we've decided to follow the Swedish model, and Sweden have chosen to follow a more conventional model. Which is why we've started to do worse again.
Comments from the Swedish medical people early on was that they thought people should learn what covid means rather than use law etc.
All that is going on here is wait and see. All of the old models etc do not mean anything any more so Fergy or who ever will have produced new ones and we wait and see which one we are on. Or we have gone what will be will be etc which wouldn't surprise me at all. High degrees of natural immunity make infection levels die away. The death toll may be acceptable now.
The usual weekly reviews haven't been produced so no week 52.
All that is going on here is wait and see. All of the old models etc do not mean anything any more so Fergy or who ever will have produced new ones and we wait and see which one we are on. Or we have gone what will be will be etc which wouldn't surprise me at all. High degrees of natural immunity make infection levels die away. The death toll may be acceptable now.
The usual weekly reviews haven't been produced so no week 52.
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