New Covid rules for the UK coming into effect for...
- Thread starter Mottie
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Well DO Think, then is a cheap shot, but the Worried Well being the bane of an ED's triage nurse's life, since forever, is not news.
People panic and turn up. Like my neighbour. 111 was engaged so off she went, to return after several hours of waiting-room clogging and short obs, with paracetamol and instructions to drink water. And stay ay home.
Was the child having trouble breathing (for which there's advice on the NHS website)? Oh, no. But she was entitled, so she turned up anyway, and wanted the kid to stay in "to be safe".
What do they do with the count for those? I don't know. We'd need to see data on length of stay if overnight.
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i was away from home and had a problem that caused me to go to an A&E. Triage nurse first. Saves doctors time as problems noted etc. I had an allergic reaction so they had me sitting there for a number of hours for observation and later until a medic had time available. There were other reasons for that. Normally an A&E doc would prescribe what ever. One of the docs noticed me looking around at who came in and what happened and said to me "I know, many people have no need to be here but you do". A guy had just been bought in following a rugby accident via an ambulance. He was dealt with immediately. I was seen a lot sooner than many. Some just got to see a nurse. A limited number of people are available so queues form. There is no urgency for many of them.
My father was dying. Not much time left. He could phone and get a visit from a doc at any time of day so did that but the doc didn't have what he needed so told to go to A&E. Got there around 11.30pm. The place was packed. Total absence of any apparent reasons for them being there. Forget old people, the only one there was my dad. I'd say the same about any time I have been near an A&E. I have been on 3 other occasions. Bust collar bone twice and being near a lightning strike that killed several people - something nearby produced a spark and it burnt a hole through the skin on my elbow. I was advised to go. I went early morning as thought they wouldn't be busy and didn't want to waste their time, more serious needs etc. The place was deserted. The receptionist just admitted me. A couple of others turned up and she said oh don't want to see your GP. They were still treated. A couple of similar were being treated when I arrived. A&E can allow people to see a doc outside of GP's hours and I am sure lots do that. Probably more now given changes in how GP's tend to work of late. They have been having similar problems. Many things clear up of their own accord. If they don't then people get to see one usually fairly promptly.
My father was dying. Not much time left. He could phone and get a visit from a doc at any time of day so did that but the doc didn't have what he needed so told to go to A&E. Got there around 11.30pm. The place was packed. Total absence of any apparent reasons for them being there. Forget old people, the only one there was my dad. I'd say the same about any time I have been near an A&E. I have been on 3 other occasions. Bust collar bone twice and being near a lightning strike that killed several people - something nearby produced a spark and it burnt a hole through the skin on my elbow. I was advised to go. I went early morning as thought they wouldn't be busy and didn't want to waste their time, more serious needs etc. The place was deserted. The receptionist just admitted me. A couple of others turned up and she said oh don't want to see your GP. They were still treated. A couple of similar were being treated when I arrived. A&E can allow people to see a doc outside of GP's hours and I am sure lots do that. Probably more now given changes in how GP's tend to work of late. They have been having similar problems. Many things clear up of their own accord. If they don't then people get to see one usually fairly promptly.
The answer to that is pretty simple - or has been. If covid is not causing some one problems they wont be admitted. They will be told to go back and wait. Just having had a positive test result doesn't mean anything. Shortness of breath at some point is serious and can need prompt attention and is what gets people admitted.. Given numbers I can't see how that can have changed.
An overnight stay given that is rather highly unlikely. The condition occurs because covid has damaged a person lungs. Some find they don't recover completely but lowering oxygen levels if not halted means death for all.
Make me laugh actually - the the thought that it can be fixed and confirmed in 24hr. The average time is probably more like a week if people do recover and ventilation can go on for well over a month.
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Bit more news. Senior school kids to wear masks in England - matching the rest of the UK.
Modellers feel they can't predict the height of this peak reliably due to changes but think it may peak in around 1 week.
The change suggests current covid effects are causing them some concern.
The state system has been asked to plan for between 10 and 25% sickness etc absenteeism. More talk about reducing isolation times.
TBH If some things that may happen do happen some number of months in time ahead I suspect that they will have to say that people must do certain things. Odd politically as they clearly don't want to do that. It may just turn out to be a matter of time. Then people may say why didn't they do that right from the start.
Modellers feel they can't predict the height of this peak reliably due to changes but think it may peak in around 1 week.
The change suggests current covid effects are causing them some concern.
The state system has been asked to plan for between 10 and 25% sickness etc absenteeism. More talk about reducing isolation times.
TBH If some things that may happen do happen some number of months in time ahead I suspect that they will have to say that people must do certain things. Odd politically as they clearly don't want to do that. It may just turn out to be a matter of time. Then people may say why didn't they do that right from the start.
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That's speculation, is it not?
Average time in hosp for omicron in SA was 2.8 days, reported back in early December. Not many had oxygen, fewer had mechanical ventilation. Steroids, antivirals, rest, it usually passes pdq. Remember they were saying zero death from omicron for a long time. Certainly no deaths for all!
My xmas contacts who had it had mild symptoms, back to work quickly because they're self employed. 5yr old just had a sore throat for 2 days.
SA discussed here though not up to date:https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-...main-flat-south-africa-sparking-hope-omicron/ everything else is saying it's waning.
This bugs me:
"The first caution on this is simply a numerical one. If the rate of hospitalisation were to halve, but you're doubling [the number of cases] every two days - in two days you're back to where you were before," he said.
"If the peak of this is twice as great, then halving of the hospitalisation rate means you still end up in the same place," Prof Whitty added.
You aren't in the same place, he's wrong! If that fewer number of hospitalizations are half as long, and they're half as serious, it makes a significant difference. The divisors literally do multiply - leading to, for a long time, zero eg deaths. Try it with a few numbers on a bit of paper.
I'm afraid we'll have a load of people isolating to save people isolating to save people isolating from something which isn't that bad.
Compare flu figures: weekly deaths involving flu & pneumonia then deaths from same.
It'll be interesting to see how this compares.
Bearing mind most of the deaths are olduns, how much point is there 40 year olds routinely taking a week off work.......?
In about 8 articles I can't find a figure for omicron deaths on SA. Anyone?? There's an unspecified 174...
This though:
Some 87% of COVID-19 deaths seen in South Africa between November 7 and December 18 were of people who were unvaccinated or not fully vaccinated, the data showed. -Additional reporting by Reuters .
And that SA is going to sue us for putting them on our Red List because it turned out it wasn't justified.
Firstly you've added an extra assumption that wasn't mentioned. Even if we're half as serious (or do you mean half the average duration of admissions?) then that's only another 2-3 days, because that doubling continues as well.
It certainly hasn't been with Delta and waves. Omicron pass but sending people who were just tested positive for it into hospital would cause those numbers to be enormous.
This is what concerned me about a SA doc's comment on TV about people reporting with a dry cough. That here would means a GP telling them to go home and wait. The reason covid kills is lung damage and insufficient oxygen in the blood. We haven't a lot of scope for variations in that. Complications such as pneumonia can also happen. There has been cases where some one calls for an ambulance and they turn up and don't take the person in. I recollect a case where things went worse rather quickly and the person died. Some areas of the country were monitoring people remotely - checking their own blood oxygen levels and posting them on a web page. At some point if they got too low they would be fetched in.
Where Omicron fits in with this here is what they are currently finding out about. For want of another word it looks good at the moment but levels in hospital are climbing. No solid info yet other than no jab looks to be a bad idea and that jabs are keeping levels down. I listed to Al J today. Other countries seem to be in the same situation. High jab levels mean learn to live with it - herd immunity in other words. If Omicron is less serious an ideal time to do it. One country is having huge demo's due to restrictions being imposed.
Listened to RT too, having an extensive USA slagging off session but some of the reporting on gas prices fit in with what has been reported here. I do listen to the news from those 2 now and again.Anyway given that some one needs oxygen which has been the initial problem people may get all of the time I don't see them getting out in 24hrs. It's bound to be longer. Levels of people needing ventilation have been pretty stable for some time now.
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Wrong again. There you go accusing again when something simple is beyond you. Run along.
For Chris Whitty he points out that if Y halves and X is doubled then you are no better off.
Your equation is presumably X*Y*Z*WTF. You added an additional two variables and picked random numbers for them of 0.5 Even if it were, that just means another two doublings to remove their effect.
Chris Whitty was not wrong, you have added another two variables beyond what he was describing.
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ajohn, I'd recommend a couple of maybe iconoclastic sources - youtube and quora. You'll get the obs and exps from a range of front line medics with a surprising experiences of Covid, mostly from the US, wave #1, some Far East. Interesting.
A couple I remember set out how some of the piously expressed aphorisms from med school had to go in the trash. I have a little prior experience of the same, as my SpO2 is routinely about 85, which fires up some medics. One NY youtube doc relates how a fellow walked in, apparently OK but feeling a bit off colour, with a reading so low he was surprised the man wasn't just about comatose (iirc it was around 45%). SOme of the oximeters go out of range and give strange readings, to add to the confusion.
They also recount in a video how they had people in hospital for 1, 2 days in order to "get through them" when occupancies were high and the docs really didn't know what was going on too well (this was wave#1). Bearing in mind the SA quotes of under 3 days average stay, there must have been many 1's and 2's.
There are also some good teaching youtubes (eg Ninja Nerds) which go through some of the mechanisms in a clear way.
A couple I remember set out how some of the piously expressed aphorisms from med school had to go in the trash. I have a little prior experience of the same, as my SpO2 is routinely about 85, which fires up some medics. One NY youtube doc relates how a fellow walked in, apparently OK but feeling a bit off colour, with a reading so low he was surprised the man wasn't just about comatose (iirc it was around 45%). SOme of the oximeters go out of range and give strange readings, to add to the confusion.
They also recount in a video how they had people in hospital for 1, 2 days in order to "get through them" when occupancies were high and the docs really didn't know what was going on too well (this was wave#1). Bearing in mind the SA quotes of under 3 days average stay, there must have been many 1's and 2's.
There are also some good teaching youtubes (eg Ninja Nerds) which go through some of the mechanisms in a clear way.
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Whitty's motives to misconstrue are cogent and respectable. Yours aren't.
D
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Peter Hitchens states: "By Covid deaths per million, a flawed measure but closer to objective fact than any other. Latest from Statista : Sweden: 1,476, UK 2,184" Despite not using measures as restrictive as ours.
Justin My Sp02 relaxed sitting is around 93%. Hyperventilate a bit and it goes to 95-96. Walk around or do just about anything and it goes to 95%. Relaxed and hands a bit cold and it goes to 95%. If I am cold and body say forget keeping hands warm it may drop to 90 - a borderline reading. That doesn't mean dead - it means getting near the point when it can cause problems. The unit comes with warnings about how to use it. LOL Yes I bought one. Used sensibly it can save bothering them if anyone here gets it.
Sounds like if you ever go in they might not let you out but they do have other ways of checking oxygen levels. Whole host of other things with blood tests too. Blood markers for all sorts of things are available from simple tests. It's probably how they detect underlying conditions. Some relate to what people have done recently though. My wife had a prediabetic test a few days after she ate a bunch of grapes. The readings also increase as people get older.
Youtube nuts - no thanks. There are all sorts around. On hospital stay durations it was easy to find reports via google. It's not now. Ok the ones I have seen don't relate to Omicron but given the same symptoms needed to get treated I don't think 24hrs is on. There are a number of things they use now to speed up recovery but that short is going too far. Some older number. 80% of people who will die do so within 14days of being admitted. Survival rate following mechanical ventilation is under 50% - making antivaxers look even more stupid. It seems high pressure air breathing is seen as another method of ventilating people suggesting it's an HDU treatment.
There is no way that 3days average means there must be some one days. For instance the average age of people who die from covid is rather high but believe it or not figures in the past have built up in a triangular shape from a few at 40 and there are always some younger. At 80+ there is a big jump and some of those will be 90 or older. Some of the really older recover. The fact there is a jump makes the average look high but it hides the fact that 50's die and also more likely to spend more time in hospital anyway.
Only thing at the moment that bugs me is they do not seem to be producing the usual weekly reports. No more specific Omicron info either but studies will appear at some point.
One thing Omicron should help with is re infection. The numbers of probables run at 1% last time I saw them but in many cases sequencing info isn't available to they have had to use symptoms to some extent. The official chance of it at the moment is 0.5%. Definite re infection based on sequencing is much lower. That should be cleared up pretty quickly now.
Sounds like if you ever go in they might not let you out but they do have other ways of checking oxygen levels. Whole host of other things with blood tests too. Blood markers for all sorts of things are available from simple tests. It's probably how they detect underlying conditions. Some relate to what people have done recently though. My wife had a prediabetic test a few days after she ate a bunch of grapes. The readings also increase as people get older.Youtube nuts - no thanks. There are all sorts around. On hospital stay durations it was easy to find reports via google. It's not now. Ok the ones I have seen don't relate to Omicron but given the same symptoms needed to get treated I don't think 24hrs is on. There are a number of things they use now to speed up recovery but that short is going too far. Some older number. 80% of people who will die do so within 14days of being admitted. Survival rate following mechanical ventilation is under 50% - making antivaxers look even more stupid. It seems high pressure air breathing is seen as another method of ventilating people suggesting it's an HDU treatment.
There is no way that 3days average means there must be some one days. For instance the average age of people who die from covid is rather high but believe it or not figures in the past have built up in a triangular shape from a few at 40 and there are always some younger. At 80+ there is a big jump and some of those will be 90 or older. Some of the really older recover. The fact there is a jump makes the average look high but it hides the fact that 50's die and also more likely to spend more time in hospital anyway.
Only thing at the moment that bugs me is they do not seem to be producing the usual weekly reports. No more specific Omicron info either but studies will appear at some point.
One thing Omicron should help with is re infection. The numbers of probables run at 1% last time I saw them but in many cases sequencing info isn't available to they have had to use symptoms to some extent. The official chance of it at the moment is 0.5%. Definite re infection based on sequencing is much lower. That should be cleared up pretty quickly now.
Has anyone seen (or can point me to) the demographics and person specifics of the people who are currently dying (or getting hospital treatment) for covid?
Back at the start there was a big emphasis on who was getting it and dying from it, but nowadays I don't see it mentioned other than a reference to vaccinated/unvaccinated.
Back at the start there was a big emphasis on who was getting it and dying from it, but nowadays I don't see it mentioned other than a reference to vaccinated/unvaccinated.
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