Recession on the way.

up and down they go, up and down.

the FTSE 100 over 13 years
ukx


I'm so pleased I bought some shares in an Electricity company to help see me through retirement

sse


over the long term, your pension will probably do well.
 
Sponsored Links
Different world, John, different game.

We are now post Peak Oil - and everything will turn sour. Like it is doing. House prices crashing, building companies crashing, stock market crashing.
Fuel prices rising, unemployment rising..
Need I go on?
 
I have an idea, why dont all the now unemployed builders go to poland to work?

I heard the economy is on the upturn there :D
 
Sponsored Links
Let me explain why high oil prices are the problem.

When the price of oil rises, the price of everything rises as one way or another it is the basic building block of our civilisation. We can make virtually nothing without it.

That means that the average citizen in every country will have to pay more for what they purchase. They therefor give priority to food, heating and transport or anything else that is essential like fags.

This leaves them less to spend as disposable income.

The manufacturer or merchant has to pay more his raw materials or stock, but because the customer has less money - he has to sell it cheaper or he won't sell it at all.

In other words he's squeezed by the hike in materials and goods and he's squeezed by a poorer customer.

Naturally enough, sales will fall and he may well go out of business. If he does - he can no-longer purchase the things he would have done like new TV or car or fridge. So the shops selling the fridge and car etc go bust - and their employees lose their job and stop going on holiday etc so the holiday company go bust...

This is the cycle that leads to recession.

If oil prices go much higher then just about ALL shops and companies will go bust.

No tax paid, no money to pay benefits. Welcome to the great depression of 2010.

The really bad news is, that however bad it gets - it'll stay that way for the rest of your life as commodity prices (oil, gas, metals etc) aren't coming down - they are going up. We've probably only got a 2 - 3% shortfall in oil at the moment - but look what's happened already.

Hope that helps.
 
Then you know nothing about economics.
 
Then you know nothing about economics.
That's an interesting point. Do you know what an S&D curve is?

If, as you say, everybody goes bust, and we stop making things, what do you think will happen to demand for raw materials?

And what will then happen to the price of raw materials?
 
The demand for raw materials will fall John, which would then make them cheaper. The problem with that is you would have an economy in permanent recession with a population too large to sustain. We've doubled our population in your lifetime so we can't simply have a smaller economy with less people (which is why I am against immigration). We'd have too many people and not enough tax payers.
 
(which is why I am against immigration). We'd have too many people and not enough tax payers.
You're making an assumption that immigrants don't become tax payers.

MW
 
In a shrinking economy if an immigrant becomes a tax payer then a Brit is out of work.
 
I don't agree with Joe's immigration rants, but the maths backs up some of what he claims...

1929 World population 1.8billion, and plentiful resources..

2008 World population 6.7billion and resouces dwindling..

A whole different ball game!
 
Sponsored Links
Back
Top