Stock market dealing

I find stock market prediction for global events interesting. Like the trends seen in energy companies prior to the economic crash of 2007. When investors pull out of a certain sector, it's a bit like water receding from the shoreline before the tsunami.
 
Sponsored Links
@Arbu The questions and statements about prices at random future dates made it look pretty flippant.
"Price Action" isn't facile, that's a mistake. Check out some youtubes about it. It's about reactions to Levels, previous highs and lows, AVWAP, SMAS and EMAs. Patterns like trends, patterns like double tops and cup and handles, Elliot waves and breakouts, reversion to fibonacci levels. Etc.

I could write a book about it, but not a very good one, so I only use simple stuff, and reactions to catalysts.
More impactful info is from harder-working people's guidance which comes from knowing what all the current relevant news about a stock is, which you get from an expensive paid service like Benzinger or Bloomberg. I'm also informed about key events like releases of key financial numbers, bond auction prices, imbalances at the exchange, sector trends, with eyes on what the big fund managers are doing. Simple!
As said earlier, TraderTV Live is worth watching. Geezers like MIchael Nauss at Trade Ideas (video above), Brian Shannon at Alphatrends, , Chris Brecher and others at Simple(r?) Trading, make very good incomes from trading so are worth watching.
You get most everything I put in this paragraph from TTV.

Gold is likely to be active because there are wars on.

I have an alert set if it dips.
Otherwise it will respect both the long term Level, red dashed line, and the obvious price channel it's in now, blue dotted lines.
I don't have any but I would have held to see if it broke the red level which it has done a couple of times recently.

If you look really long term, longer than I can easily chart, there's a definite cup and handle formation. If you believe the chartists, that indicates an upcoming rise.
1705345386872.png
 
Last edited:
I find stock market prediction for global events interesting. Like the trends seen in energy companies prior to the economic crash of 2007. When investors pull out of a certain sector, it's a bit like water receding from the shoreline before the tsunami.
It can be a bit like whacking one of those low level diving boards. Huge lurch in one direction, then a big bounce the other way, with a load of different frequency vibrations going on at the same time. If you want to use those you can, but you have to watch carefully. The bounce-backs can be very useful because you have a good idea where the limit is.
There is momentum in the initial move, but you have little ideaa how far it'll go. Many stay away from that period.
 
@Arbu what's your experience in this?

Have you noticed - for instance that nat gas 23 Feb has got down to around 2.444 which is strong level? Previous bounces from that have been several percent. If it goes down through such a level, look for it coming back up again.
Careful with nat gas though, they call it the widow maker.
 
Sponsored Links
The us market was closed yesterday so I got my hair cut. The Kurdish lad who did it has been dabbling with the USD/TUR currency pair, You can see why; the total gain here is only 6%, but it's leveraged x20, and that is what you call momentum. There are lots of llittle dips in there to buy. If you mistime it, never mind, it'll be up again in a few days! Those "wicks " are killers though, they would trigger a stop-loss and you'd be punched in the face, x20. You need an averaging "ATR TSL" which most platforms don't have. . The spread is very wide too, though it doesn't look it here.

1705395019864.png
 
@Arbu what's your experience in this?

Have you noticed - for instance that nat gas 23 Feb has got down to around 2.444 which is strong level? Previous bounces from that have been several percent. If it goes down through such a level, look for it coming back up again.
Careful with nat gas though, they call it the widow maker.
I've been doing it for some years, went on a one week course once, but nothing professionally. Biggest thing I've learnt is to ignore all the experts - they may be backed up by a big name and fancy graphics, but they haven't actually got a clue (e.g.https://think.ing.com/articles/usd-jpy-bracing-for-the-second-half-us-recession), which isn't surprising really if you consider that 90% of people in this business lose money, so why would the experts be any better?

Aren't you contradicting yourself saying that gold will respect your red line and that, if you had it, you would hold it in the hope that it broke the red line?
 
I'm going to close my gold trade on Friday evening once Davos is finished (unless tp or sl is hit), my Fujitsu trade when the Japanese market opens next Tuesday morning, and my Clarkson trade first thing tomorrow.
 
As said earlier, TraderTV Live is worth watching. Geezers like MIchael Nauss at Trade Ideas (video above), Brian Shannon at Alphatrends, , Chris Brecher and others at Simple(r?) Trading, make very good incomes from trading so are worth watching.
If I was making a very good income from trading, I wouldn't be spending my time producing videos, that's for sure.
 
Daily hints I get look like this. These guys don't trade anything but stocks, so check your own commodities etc.
Add Ngas, Mara, Coin, oil

1705412763020.png

If you think it needs turning into English, yep, so did I when I started.

This doesn't look particularly straighforward. From that I'd start with AMD as there is a catalyst. You never know if it's gonna count for a hill o beans, though.
 
Aren't you contradicting yourself saying that gold will respect your red line and that, if you had it, you would hold it in the hope that it broke the red line?
No, I'm not. Respect does not mean an exact prediction. The rising channel will also be a pull on the price. Both are like magnets pulling. It is likely to break from one or the other, perhaps returning to it. You have to watch, wait, and apply thinking to it. You have to assess the probablilities.
If I was making a very good income from trading, I wouldn't be spending my time producing videos, that's for sure.
Again, you're cynical and quick to sneer at something you don't understand. Do you know why they do the videos? Sounds like not. Are they stupid? Nope. Suggest you have a better look. They do it to make large amounts of money, which would soon be clear if youpaid attention.

If you look at say Humbled Trader, from whom we can also learn, yes she makes quite a bit from a library of videos, but also other activities. There are several doing much the same.

If you think all experts haven't got a clue, then you haven't watched that video I posted from Michael Nauss, or a host of others.

You mentioned the Japanese market - did you stick a bid on therising Namura Shipping the other night? It has done it a couple of times before - rising about 5%. I left a TP at 4% once it had cleared. (Around half past midnight). Nice to wake up to.

I urge you to seek out the output from Qullamaggie (Swedish is ~Kullamaggie). He's very helpful, and a wise man. Note that he says, if you haven't seen and understood his 10 hours or so of videos, don't ask him questions, but F O instead. That's the point. It's not a one-sentence answer.

Watch TTV - especially Neal Roberts. Less shouty that Shawn.

Market opens in 20 mins so I have to go, check I have the levels drawn and the previous hi's and lo's set out, decided the amounts, etc.
 
Yes, they do the videos in the hope of making some money from youtube advertising revenues or people subscribing to them. No, I'm not going to watch ten hours of videos by some Swedish geezer I've never heard of, funnily enough.

I did watch a bit of the video by Michael Nauss. From what I recall, he just made predictions. Where do I see an analysis of whether they were correct? Does he do that, or do his predictions just get forgotten about, like so many of them do?

I've sold some Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company ADR. Will probably keep it until the end of the month.
 
Yes, they do the videos in the hope of making some money from youtube advertising revenues
No, you obviously missed it, or let your preconceptons overrule what they say. They try to encourage people to join the PropShop network they have - it's all over the world. Really good people are extremely rare. They can earn decent amounts of money when they have millions to trade with. $10m a year isn't unusual. Some of the people they have in that office heard of them first from the youtube production, like the guy Cherif.
They've employed a person just to be a public face, the girl called Adara, so yes they make some money from the channel. Turns out she's probably suitable enough to become a trader, so they're teaching her on camera in the middle of their day. I've learned a lot from watching that. (Criminology degree, apparently, but there can't be many jobs .)

No, I'm not going to watch ten hours of videos
Are you trying to trade for a living, or just to play?
I started as something to do in retirement to keep the grey cells occupied. I can't get about much so it suits.
I don't think I'm at all "good" at it, but I have managed to avoid or stop some of the things the losers do.
I assume, if you've been doing it a long time, you've built up a pot of winnings to use. That's key - it simplified the emotional side for me. I took out the initial amount and put it back in the bank, then mostly into ETFs when I'd learned a bit about them. I'd bought shares for years, but not "managed" them.
Well, they say it 10,000 hours to master something. So if you can't give it 10, give up. I must be somewhere in the hundreds, but I'm cheating by not doing the prep work, and watching it done for me on TTV.
By the rather cynical way you come across, I wonder if you've been successful. If not, you need to change attitude, I would suggest.

predictions. Where do I see an analysis of whether they were correct?
The stock market. Look it up for yourself. You will have noticed he had said Uranium was a favorite sector of his, and how it had done well and he wished all his tips worked out that way. At that time it was about +10% since Jan1. Since then they've risen an additional 30%.
The man studies the evidence. Once recently he noted that UPS was underperforming the Transport Sector. Watchers bough it the next morning and it rose 10% that day. Yes there are charlatans and idiots, but it's not that hard to tell some of them apart.

do his predictions just get forgotten about,
No, they're all recorded. He doesn't predict as such, he observes, analyses, and suggests how things might go. He's a Swing Trader, which means he works out stocks which are running a bit below par and are likely to catch up. If you ever do decide to put some investment into learning, a few hours will tell you what makes a good swing stock. The alternative is to use someone else's suggestions, paid for or otherwise. There are lots around. Zaks, Motley Fool, Daily Telegraph, Investors Chronicle etc.

That TTV stream has 3 outputs of guidance, of which I showed one.
I can't follow a dozen stocks, so I pick a couple today. AMD, one of their suggestions, went up 6.5% off the start (after the gap). But then they reported that a stock connected with Donald Trump , appeared to have got a boost from his Iowa result. It's called PHUN or Phunware. It rose a ridiculous 400+% altogether on the day. I hesitated for a while , because it's HIM, But then joined in.
I'm not sure what the figure is yet, haven't checked, but it's more than OK for the day.
 
OK, I watched the first half of Nauss's video just now. He said:
1. AUD/JPY is in a wedge. It could break out of it above or below. Watch carefully. No doubt it will do one of the two. His chart had a time span of 18 months, so it's going to be a long wait to see which it does. But what is the value of that comment?
2. He's bullish on gold this week. Well, as I predicted, it has come down.
3. S&P could be choppy for a bit. Yes of course it could. Again, what is the value of that observation?

Where can I see exactly what he said about uranium in his original post?

Closed out my Clarkson trade as, while I think it's in a good position as a company, my overall view of the stock market is bearish. -£25
 
Last edited:
Sorry I'm not going to go back and see what he said when - I daresay there was a context. But he does not make "predictions", so if that's what you want, look elsewhere.

As you came to figure out "how to do it", I'm surprised you put so much effort into trying to nit pick what others say - especially when they DO seem to be able to do it. Gold was higher yesterday, and went down as a result of FED announcements, I heard, which came after that video I think.. I don't follow it so I might be a bit out. It's at the same price it was on the 8th so saying that it has come down -,.
You aren't going to improve your trading, assuming that's what you want to do, by criticising other people. Going out of your way to find fault is just wasting time.

Nauss has been banging on about uranium for several weeks at least. Nobody gets everything right, all anyone honest will claim to do is look at the evidence, the better people winkle out what's salient.

Bill Ackman, Cathy Wood, Warren Buffet, don't make predictions, they make assessments of evidence they have.
I think you're looking for something you won't find.

Take something small - Disney ended up with the 3% price rise stopped by market close yesterday. It's down a little in premarket trading and when it opens there may be some (more) profit-taking. Worth a look, though. I will let others find out what if any the catalyst was.

Otherwise today it's the usuals TSLA 212L, AMD 157L, NVIDIA, plus Snapchat 15.25L/16L, , BABA , RIVN 18SS other EV adr's SS.

Watch. draw in the levels, see what's running.
 
Last edited:
He said in the video which you posted on Sunday and which he calls a "weekend market wrap up" that he was "still bullish gold". It's been almost entirely down this week.

I lowered my tp on my gold position because it was too arbitrary, so not hit yet. It hasn't respected the blue channel that you said it would btw.
 
Sponsored Links
Back
Top