Stock market dealing

[Justin Passing]

Gold stayed in the channel until it bounced off the red line level . That's what happens at levels. A level is a is a pull - or a resistance or support when the price gets close of course. Theproce is affected by lines and levels, which is called respecting them; not a prediction.
Nauss didn't say bullish for the first three days of the week, did he? What he actually said was "still bullish gold". The video was dated the 8th when gold was 2020. It rose to 2053.
And the FED hadn't spoken. You're going out of your way choose a critical interpretation. Hmm.

By the way I looked at your derogatory comment on what he'd said:
"1. AUD/JPY is in a wedge. It could break out of it above or below. Watch carefully. No doubt it will do one of the two. His chart had a time span of 18 months, so it's going to be a long wait to see which it does. But what is the value of that comment?"
It's a compression pattern, which you should learn about. Why do you say the chart had a timespan of 18 months when he said the breakout "could be some time next week". So, you don't know about a basic chart pattern though you've been doing it years, and you take the p because you don't understand. That's sounds like an insult, but objectively, it's what you did, innit?
The value of the comment, is that you take advantage of it by paying attention to look for the break, if there is one. See?

He said a load of other analytical stuff, you're picking on one bit and deciding it was wrong. Seems to be your proclivity!

Dunno why you're holding gold it if you were so sure it would drop - or were you short?
That "guidance" I noted was about right, 3 buck profit on AMD, and they got the low of the day on Tesla within one cent. Usually it's more clear though.

I took a bit of that but used oil mostly, as the leverage is higher. Most of the pot went to oil which split long 1.7%, twice, x 10, plus a bit for DWAC which was going nuts. The TraderTV is good for alerting to things like that. So about 40% on the day.
Yes the leverage on gold is higher but the spread's rather wide compared with the movements - it never really appealed.

How did you do?

You mentioned TSMC, which all day today. Pity you sold. Could get attention tomoz.

Btw where do you stick your capital? I'm big in India and Japan for the moment.

Some interesting stuff is being said about oil and rare earths: https://oilprice.com/Metals/Commodi...Earth-Policy-Shakes-Global-Tech-Industry.html

 

[Arbu]

Nauss's video was recorded at 5pm (presumably US time) on 12th Jan as you can see below. His AUDJPY chart had a timespan of 18 months and he was talking about a breakout in the next week - the moves would be too small in a week to see them against an 18 month period, so it's silly.

Since I can't get any clarity about what's predicted to happen from you or Nauss, I'm just taking some arguable positions which will show everyone that this is a mug's game. I can't predict these things better than any of the other idiots. My gold trade was just luck so I've closed it out now - +£817.60. It looks like my Taiwan trade will work more in my favour.

 

[Arbu]

I'm going to sell some AUDJPY now anyway - JPY inflation data out tonight and no Australian central banker at Davos. Close out tomorrow evening.

 

[Justin Passing]

It isn't silly at all - again you haven't understood.
The breakout pattern he indicated, which is partly against the longstanding level line, is recent.
You need to learn about the nature of long-establlished levels, and chart breakout patterns.

Everyone finds the psychology of trading difficult. There's FOMO and YOLO and plain fear. You never get it "Right". You either should have been earlier, or later, or with more or less risk. People beat themselves up over it. Some destroy their family as determinedly as a gambling addict would. It's easy to make it someone else's fault, the market's fault. It's not easy, for most people. I did ok at the start when the market was rising but took a hit when it went flat I had to rethink.

You seem to spend a lot of effort misquoting and misunderstanding though lack of knowledge, so you can set a up a straw man argument. That;'not going to get you anywhere.
That screenshot you showed is about bitcoin, so it's irrelevant. Other screens including the one I saw were from the 8th.
In any case, the gold price DID rise after the 12th, and also he's a swing trader, if he's "bullish on gold" he's looking a lot further forward than a few days. Stop digging!

You might get off on trying and failing to prove someone else wrong but it won't get you more profitable.
Learn a bit more so you know what they're talking about and incorporate it into your own knowledge so you can use it.

We have no idea what will happen to the price "after Davos". Just as we see prices go the "wrong way" after good earnings results on stocks. I would suggest you need to trade on the price action and everything else, not just the calendar.
It might coincide with marvellous news or a war breaking out.
I daresay you're likely to move heaven an earth to be able to claim that you were right about Davos, whatever happens. Nobody cares. WHat should matter is that you get the thinking logical, researched, measured, justifiable. If it turns out wrong so be it. A lucky guess would not be praiseworthy even if it was right.



How are you doing generally?
I was ok with 38% yesterday but I called a friend who cleared 155%. He jumps on small cap gappers.

I'm making a mistake in holding small amounts of a couple of dozen stocks which I think have a good probability of doing well , sometime. That's not working, in many cases. Smaller companies' prices can tumble 30% and I feel like selling to prevent further loss. Then of course some do come back up,, so again, whatever one does is wrong. Better to restrain that urge, and buy an ETF for the sector. At least it'll move more slowly and not need constant tweaking.
Swinging a few, like GSK, M & S, Rolls Royce, in the UK, does work. And I'll have some dividend stocks on Ex div date. You getthe payment, then the price drops immediately, but it usually comes back quite quickly.

AAPL looks good for a long today from 186. Wait for confirmation.
Upgraded, along withmsft, pin, amd..
DOwngradesAdobe, Shopify, CHarles Schwab, Spirit AIr.
May be GOOGL 142L,
Tsla 215L,
INTC 47.25 to 48 out.
Watch as always NVDA, AMD, oil, gas, crypto
Draw out previous highs and lows, check levels and pivots.

I will stay on one or two, looking wider if they're flat or choppy or not a multiple of their Average Trading Range.

[edited]

 

[Arbu]

The point is that he has access to a chart showing the date as 12th January. So there is no way that he can have recorded the video on 8th.

I've told you how I'm doing. I lost on Clarkson and made profit on gold. But I think the latter was just luck so wouldn't count it.

What are you and your friend up 38/155% of? A percentage has to be of something.

 

[Justin Passing]

Jeezus. on the12tha screen from 8th is available, dude, Stop trying and failing to score useless points.

The percentages are on the day - on however much used.

If you could be bothered to look at some recent post you'd have see that I'm simply staying just a bit under the FCSC limit for the broker, which is universally 85k. When the pot goes over, which is most days recently, I take the excess out. Early on I shoed the accounts I had deposited at that time.
So it was 38% on around 80k. SMall compared with some but I have my reasons.

 

[Justin Passing]

I went long at 186 Apple when I posted it, It just stopped out for a £500 profit. I'll keep watching.

 

[Justin Passing]

Hut8 is in some kind of trouble, so I switched to that, short.

 

[Justin Passing]

That'll do. Hut 8 dropped 23%.
leveraged x5 = 115%
Which doubles the pot, allowing for the bit I screwed up.

 

[Justin Passing]

I meant how are you doing - overall? I mean are you beating say the XLK , SMH?
Pity about TSC, obviously.

 

[Arbu]

OK, well done on AAPL and Hut8 - I'd never even heard of the latter before. Where do you get your information from? Yes, a pity about TSC. I thought I saw on their website that they were reporting on 31st Jan, but didn't see anything about an earnings conference due yesterday.

What do you mean by just giving a number and L? -
"May be GOOGL 142L,
Tsla 215L,"

I'm up about £300 this week on about £25K. Does that mean I'm beating the XLK? Not sure it's worth calculating.

 

[Arbu]

btw, IG says I can't short hut8. Not sure if that's a temporary thing or whether it would have been the case yesterday also.

 

[Arbu]

Closed AUDJPY -£121.8

 

[Arbu]

How did you get on today? I watched traderTV right through and tried to follow their suggestions as much as possible. I resolved to pay more attention to the price action, as you suggested, and less to underlying causes. Here's how I got on:

• 19/01/2024 20:55
  Affirm Holdings Inc
  +5
  4200
  4202
  £10.00
• 19/01/2024 18:37
  Apple Inc (All Sessions)
  +1
  19013
  19115.3
  £102.30
• 19/01/2024 18:29
  Super Micro Computer Inc
  -0.50
  40600
  41515.96
  -£457.98
• 19/01/2024 18:26
  Meta Platforms Inc (All Sessions)
  +0.50
  38235
  38313
  £39.00
• 19/01/2024 18:22
  Meta Platforms Inc (All Sessions)
  +1
  38043
  38334.9
  £291.90
• 19/01/2024 17:57
  Affirm Holdings Inc
  +1
  4004
  4004
  £0.00
• 19/01/2024 17:13
  Tesla Motors Inc (All Sessions)
  +1
  20814
  20905.3
  £91.30
• 19/01/2024 16:41
  Apple Inc (All Sessions)
  -1
  18987
  18977
  £10.00
• 19/01/2024 16:01
  NVIDIA Corp (All Sessions)
  +0.50
  58012
  57985
  -£13.50
• 19/01/2024 15:55
  Uber Technologies Inc (All Sessions)
  -1
  6485
  6492.71
  -£7.71
• 19/01/2024 15:49
  NIO Inc - ADR (All Sessions)
  +1
  605
  593.7
  -£11.30
• 19/01/2024 15:46
  Phunware Inc
  +1
  25
  21.3
  -£3.70
• 19/01/2024 15:42
  Amazon.com Inc (All Sessions)
  -1
  15292
  15337.8
  -£45.80
• 19/01/2024 15:32
  Super Micro Computer Inc
  -0.50
  40003
  40832.85
  -£414.93
• 19/01/2024 15:08
  Advanced Micro Devices Inc (All Sessions)
  +1
  16519
  16234.99
  -£284.01
• 19/01/2024 15:07
  Super Micro Computer Inc
  +1
  39600
  39114.94
  -£485.06
• Total
  -£1,179.49

 

[Justin Passing]

I did nothing Friday, other than getting a free ride in a meat wagon with pretty lights to a place with lots of women in blue....
Hey ho
Anyway...
What method are you using at IG? Is it CFD or SB...? What fees are you gettng hit with? AFAIR it's $10 a trade or something - is that wrong?

Hope you enjoyed watching TTV. The midday Instructional sections are relatively new. The youtubes are all still up there.
It's best to start watching from 13: 30, ie an hour before play starts.
If you Register with the site(free), they will send you every day, the product of their assessing the news. It's from Benzinger, which would otherwise cost a lot. The girl Adara does that. She's good at it. You can pay $5 a month for some minor benefits - I do. You also get your name Bold in the Chat, though I don't use it much.
Then it depends who is "on" at astart of trading. If it's Shawn he posts a "Sticky note" on X/Twitter under tradertvshawn, by about 2pm.. Neal also sends out a list of his thoughts. Both are hipspeak and somewhat cryptic.
If the Sticky note says Meta 133L, it means that there's a "level" at 133 for Meta, and he expects the price to go UP from there IF that price is reached., ie L = Long. S or SS is Short. Sometimes the figure given for the level is a very little bit off. He often doesn't give an "out", but it'll be a next level up, usually. You can find those. Shawn especially is too shouty - lots of noise if his position goes up even a tiny bit, not much noise if it goes against him. Cherif is too precious. Someone will make a suggestion, which he'll misquote so he can say they're wrong.
Warning - SHawn and Neal have been doing it every day for 25 years and have a very fast platform. Most can't keep up with them, I certainly can't, so I'd suggest you don't try. EG stick to the 2-3 which are moving most (by %) and have best liquidity, ie smallest spread. Or even just one, until it slows down.
One thing they have buttons to do is reduce their positions quickly, so after the initial gain they are far less exposed.
At start of day the price can wang about, so it's often best to hold on for a couple of minutes.
Do you pay for locates in order to short on IG?
I don't have to, but yes as you found, unless you're early, it's common to find there's no shorting available - because there's nobody going Long.

From a bit of a look at your trades, some of your Entries were unwise. This is clear as day with hindsight of course. Don't enter on a pop-up. The following may seem condescending, you probably know it as well as I do, but...
What you seem to have done on that last SMC trade for example, is enter at the wrong time, with too large a size for you to hold your bottle with. So it started losing you say minus £470 or watever it was and you bottled out. losing £470 odd.
1) You bought on a it of a peak, I think. If you'd bought on a DIP, you'd have had far less chance of going backwards,, and
2) If you'd stuck with it, you'd have gone on to win a couple of £thousand. You need to have "faith in your trades" which is another way of saying let it go for the nevt Level.
Important though, ise MACD or commodity channel with shorter MAs to look for divergence, That's valuable.
The arrow marks where I think you went, and the circles mark better entry points:. I didn't mark the best one - right at the botttom.

I appreciate you caught the drop part way through, where the arrow is.
You were using £40k or something - or half or 1 lot - I'm not sure.
If you'd started smaller, like £1k, you'd have had to hold your nerve through a starting lloss of ~£40, which would have been much easier.

Once you'd cleared the spread and were up a bit, you could add shares to it. It's a bit slow but you can limit your risk to something very small.
If the level is say at 330, and you go long at 330.2, it's extremely unlikely to drop back through the level because it's huge support, That's why Shawn and co start with a large number of shares, then reduce it. They have £millions to play with.

Joining in the middle of a trend is more risky, if you don't really know where it might meet resistance, which these days can be the case. If you go one share, seems ok 2 shares, yeah ok then 10 shares, it will always go backwards ( does for me, anyway.)

The thing to do if you're quick, is wait for resistance (say on a long) and put a stop for a buy order just above it. If the resistance turns out to be a reversion , your stop won't be hit and your order won't be filled - no problem. That works off the open - usually. If he says 133L you leave a buy to trigger at say 133.5.


Warning - look at Apply thursday. It shot up as predicted and then stopped my out. Stops can be a PITA but that one worked. Then the price went right back down again, so what the heck.... then back up again and I rejoined. You have to be ready for that, or wait a couple of minutes which risks missing some of the gain.

HOpe something there helps. Ask if confusing.
WHat have you found which work s well for you?