Stock market dealing

[Justin Passing]

RHM too sluggish this morning. Breakfast intervened. I should have been more patient.

 

[Arbu]

The tradertv morning sessions seem to end at midday and the afternoon ones start at 2pm, so I can't find Neal's comments at 5:15pm (12:15pm their time).

I think I'm just on a lucky streak at the moment. I figured the dollar would strengthen yesterday, so shorted stocks. But I could have been wrong.

Clearly I should have held AMD for longer. Same with meta. I tend to look at the one minute charts, which perhaps is too short a timeframe.

I'd normally be having my breakfast around 8, but could look at RHM then if you think it's a good idea.

 

[Arbu]

Trying to hold for longer today with a view to being more like your blue rectangle instead of my yellow one. Didn't work.
Also, if you trade on a pullback from a trend, that simply means that you are trading against the shorter term trend inherent in the pullback. Not possible to trade with all trends.

• 18/04/2024 19:09
  Boeing Co (All Sessions)
  -1
  17125
  16975
  £150.00
• 18/04/2024 16:08
  Meta Platforms Inc (All Sessions)
  -0.50
  50786
  51090.7
  -£152.35
• 18/04/2024 15:45
  Tesla Motors Inc (All Sessions)
  -0.50
  15111
  15183.9
  -£36.45
• 18/04/2024 15:43
  Boeing Co (All Sessions)
  -1
  17137
  17165
  -£28.00
• 18/04/2024 15:09
  Advanced Micro Devices Inc (All Sessions)
  -0.30
  15520
  15533.4
  -£4.02
• 18/04/2024 15:04
  Spot Gold
  +20
  2380.62
  2376.97
  -£73.00
• 18/04/2024 14:43
  Advanced Micro Devices Inc (All Sessions)
  -0.20
  15520
  15334
  £37.20
• Total
  -£106.62

 

[Justin Passing]

Trying to hold for longer today with a view to being more like your blue rectangle instead of my yellow one. Didn't work.

You mean you did it wrong . Nobody said just "hold for longer". Hold while the trend is valid. Use Moving averages, Bollinger Bands, Donchian channels, whatever, to help.
You can't just say "Oh I'll try going long and see what happens." That won't do.
And as soon as you're say £40, or a couple of spreadsworth down, get out. If you're up 100 and the trend looks to be not broken, that's different. £40 would still be too much. Stick a moving average on it, like a 10EMA.

Well RHM often moves quite a lot in a stereotypical start-of-day way. With hindsight, I shorted from the off today but it went flat and I wanted some toast so I closed - should have held cos it went on down and down. Look at the last few days' starts. Liquid, so spreads are usually reasonable.

Also, if you trade on a pullback from a trend, that simply means that you are trading against the shorter term trend inherent in the pullback. Not possible to trade with all trends.

You're arguing against the advice of 90% of successful traders. Someone like Shawn can win whatever he does. I can't, and neither can you! Why should you do that? You aren't successful, remember. Folly to try to justify it imho. Do you think you're cleverer than those earning from the caper??

Yes there are ttrends within trends. But you wouldn't go long regardless just because the market tends to rise if you give it long enough, would you. So look what happens in the timeframe you're dealing with.
Always have a look on a higher timeframe like 5 min. That can be a revelation.

You're missing this point. If you play a pullback and it goes wrong, it gets worse:
Pullback -
Stay in too short a duration, you miss winnings. Oh well. Though the spread is usually cutting you up both ways.
Stay in too long, you start losing irrecoverably. The losses just get bigger. Disaster Dahling (Appologies to Craig Revell-Horwood)
If you get the direction wrong, you start losing irrecoverably. The losses just get bigger. Disaster.

If you go with the trend -
Stay in too short a duration, you miss winnings. Oh well. You're still up
Stay in too long, you start to reduce the winnings you've made. Oh well. You're still up
Get the direction wrong, just hold on, it'll come right then you're winning. OK, good.

If you do what everyone says, :wait for a retracement, and when it turns back to the direction of the trend, enter. That increases the probability that you'll win.
Don't act in anticipation, wait for confirmation.

Always always look for LEVELS and use them.

Lots of nervousness at the moment.
I took a bit from the sticky note but looked at the usual tableau of crypto, weed, ... etc
I went long Mara which went several percent, then weed (Aurora) went several percent later in the day.

I also took a punt on Netflix results, and lost a couple or three percent. Hey ho. It'll probably come back in the next days. I sold most at only 1.8% down. The results were actually good - it's crazy.


Ah, looks like your BA trade was doin the right thing, wait for the pullback, go with the bits of aeroplane, downwards

That's it, .


But that Meta Loss , what were you thinking? (FFS!) There were places you could have gone LONG around there, NOT SHORT.
You went against the trend for no reason.

I stuck Bollinger bands on it. Note that with the REAL trend change, the price hits the opposite boundary (pinky).
Other indicators would have shown the same sort of thing. MACD say.

On the rise at about 15:10 would have been OK, LONG.
There are dozens of tools you can have in your bag to use when you see the setup. You must stop the losing trades so stick to things which work almost always. Just this set will work every day, somewhere.

Look for a catalyst/TTV's tips,
Check the trend
Enter light, if there's no pullback
Or wait for a pullback, or moving off a LEVEL, and a confirmation of direction, then enter.
Get out sooner rather than later if it goes wrong. You can always re-enter.
Be cognisant of levels, particularly from the previous day. AVWAP too if you have it. Reversals are likely there.
If you haven't got at least a couple of things going for you, don't enter.
Learn some simple tools like MAs or BBands to use in combination.
Also - concentrate - look for those equal length wicks, hammer candles, and other stuff you know.

 

[Justin Passing]

RHM paid for breakfast, 400 sold at €508.4, bought at €504.4 .

 

[Arbu]

You are always talking about "the trend" as if there is only one. But there are multiple trends depending on which timeframe you are looking at. The trend in meta was to the downside:

Then there was a retracement and a moving average cross-over, so I got in short with a suitable stop loss:

Simple.

 

[Arbu]

Better today. Started late. Sold Coinbase then Neal said something like "Wow, the market is tanking". So I got out. Just the right time.

• 19/04/2024 16:42
  Starbucks Corp
  +0.50
  8741
  8750
  £4.50
• 19/04/2024 15:47
  Tesla Motors Inc (All Sessions)
  +0.50
  14939
  15010
  £35.50
• 19/04/2024 15:40
  Coinbase Global Inc (All Sessions)
  -0.50
  21829
  21596
  £116.50
• Total
  £156.50

 

[Justin Passing]

"Simple"? Yes but not the way you want.

Trends - , you're wrong. If you're going to be in a trade for hours, then look at a chart for that timescale, sure. But you never were,. You cannot make or justify a trade on a minutes scale, on a 1 hour chart. It's utterly inappropriate unless you'e going to be in it for hours. Then you'd be looking for pullbacks on a 1 hour timescale not on a 1 minute.
Over a couple of years everything's likely to go up, but that's not the tend that's relevant, is it.

Again, it feels like you're clutching at straws to try to justify something which was obviously daft. You need to recognise what you're doing wrong and correct it, if you actually want to admit you're getting things wrong and learn from it.
Sounds harsh mate, but as I think I suggested, your thinking's wrong.
It looks petulant, in a word. This is really obvious to me. I have no skin in this game of yours, it's you who's suffering. Stick to the logic, not the game. The game is more fun when you learn and execute so that you're winning.

To see the overall relevant trend, try going ONE timescale up. Sometimes there isn't one. Going a week up is a waste of time.

Then there was a retracement and a moving average cross-over, so I got in short with a suitable stop loss:

You were wrong - you lost. You were wrong for the usual reasons, and you got the usual outcome of that.
I can say that I can see clearly that you were wrong. If I thought you were justified but were unlucky, I'd have no problem saying so, but no, you cocked up.
You didn't have all your dusks in a row. . You can't claim anything about an MA crossing VWAP ( which isn't a correct signal anyway) because it had not happened yet. SO it looks to me as though you're retrospectively trying to justify it. You're trying to kid yourself. Don't!

If you genuinely can't see that what you did there was utterly wrong, you have a lot to learn, starting with whatthe relevant trend is. I can help with that but you have to question yourself more objectively.
If you still believe you were justified and you'd do it again, you're a hopeless case and I'm wasting my time.
If you don't want to admit you were wrong so are trying to justify what you did, then you need to adjust your thinking. That's the most common problem traders have.
Only you can solve that one. First you have to work out logically why you were wrong and accept that being wrong once is OK, Staying wrong is not.



The proof that you were wrong ultimately is that you lost £150 and I wouldn't have done, nor would any other trader I've seen. Would you do it again?

 

[Justin Passing]

Better today. Started late. Sold Coinbase then Neal said something like "Wow, the market is tanking". So I got out. Just the right time.

Well done. That's one benefit of listening to TTV. If someone yells thatthe market or even something important like Apple is jumping, it's likely to be significant.
WAtch out for the stream delay though. You can check the exact time, it's often 15 seconds behind. I routinely click a higher playback speed so I can hear it while it catches up.
Sure, I'd have got out, though crypto can be seperate from most stocks, like oil.
It's better to be OUT wishing you were IN , than IN wishing you were OUT.

I faffed around for a while, also arriving late, gettng a bit from the TTV traders but not much. I had cryptos on watch as usual and Mara started going up so I focused on that. I started lower and sized up. It went up about 10% in the end iirc, so I got about 8% x 5 x 50k, you can do the sums.

I don't know if you ever watch educational youtubes? You could get a lot from them. I've found SMB capital's to be very good on some things in particular., thogh they're sometimes a bit advanced. You need some more basic ones. Look for moving averages, trends, levels.. Unless you're prepared to put some honest learning in, you're going to keep losing.

 

[Justin Passing]

Keep eating chocolate while you caan. Global warming is having a serious effect on basic commodities!!!!

The cocoa crops (Ghana, Costa Rica) aren't going to suddenly multiply so who knows where the top of this market will be. The price has doubled in a month

 

[Arbu]

To see the overall relevant trend, try going ONE timescale up. Sometimes there isn't one. Going a week up is a waste of time.

Thanks for your input. The difficulty is that it's hard to have faith in this. When I hear Shawn saying "It's a really difficult day - I can only see three traders who are green behind me", and a lot of what is said is so flexibly worded ("the trend" - which trend?) that it could be used to justify anything after the event, and when I meet a City fund manager who tells me to be very careful because almost everyone who tries this seems to lose money, it makes me very sceptical that it really is possible at all. But I'm going to keep going anyway, and I'll try to have more faith. I did at least make money last week net. Henceforth, I'll understand "the trend" as shorthand for "the relevant trend", and I'll have a look at some of the videos you mention.

 

[Justin Passing]

The relevant trend is just the one you're hoping to take a lump out of in the time you have.
Sometimes there isn't a usable trend, sure, but that one was really clear.
If it's consolidating, your spread will be too wide, go elsewhere.

Shawn could make money going long all day on a falling market. Or say he'd made money, anyway. I remember him catching up with someone doing that. He ,and the platform they have, are both extremely good at scalping.

If you read the blurb TTV give on the major stocks he's on about, you can usually get it right, in terms of which way it's going to go.
Leave the first few minutes though, I certainly can't keep up with him.
About the only way I've done ok there is to aim to take the first move only, straight off the open, and get out very early, because it jumps the other way so quickly.


Your city fund manager manages investments, he's not a Day Trader if the timescales are used to differentiate between those terms (which seems pointless to me). He's right, if a numpty tried 10 trades , only one of them would win. Most people are too unsuited in some way to stick to it long enough to come out on top, but then almost nobody takes enough coaching. If everyone used a paper account until they were consistently profitable, then there would be almost NO losers. The system is stacked against you by the brokers and stockmarkets, so why should you win? The lady Adara is bright and quick and diligent. She will be able to assimilate enough focused knowledge and apply it to do well. Obi is not particularly bright or quick but he is diligent. He's doing OK, mostly by following the shawn methods. The platform's quick, which he uses.

There are plenty of people who make money out of day trading. Mostly they find a small number of strategies which work for them. Some in the "chat" do that - they only watch a couple of stocks, and they only ever go short, all sorts of peculiarities. Many only ever use the Nasdaq Futures. The fellah Paddy uses MARA, saying how it always moves in a $4 range, with the range holding for a good while. Not something I'd noticed though I use Mara quite a bit.

Those indicators do work in that they improve the chance to yor favour, but you can't always use them in a day, so you needs sevral in your armoury - like Neal has. If you use something like MACD, it won't make any sense at all, until you've watched someone explain what it actually shows and how they use it. Then all of a sudden you notice maybe a couple of setups a day. Not necessarily for very much, but they work, 9/10. Those are the things to learn. It's a slog to get them into one's head in later years, I find.
Neal's daily lessons are incredibly good. If he put them in a book for £100 I'd buy it. I just noticed the Vietnamese guy who does trading videos has a book for 19.99 of setups. He's good, if a bit hard to follow . If you don't want to slog through learning that stuff, don't day trade. To be honest, it has taken you a rather long time to be still getting the use of the trend wrong. Not a good sign. If the simple stuff hasn't gone it, will the geeky stuff? Never mind you can do it a different way: You only need 1 good trade a day, taken with confidence. That's actually what I try to do. 10% in one go suits me fine. No point having multiple similar trades running at once, they'll probably all do the same.

I'm not quick enough to be a pure Day Trader, I don't do much with it, having found the longer move trades easier.
I do Swing Trade a bit though - look that up if you don't know it. The guy Michael Nauss at Trade Ideas is good with that. Worth looking at his feeds. He does some lessons too. (something like statsedgetrading??) Swingin' is slower and you can surround yourself with stop losses and there's more chance to get advice . May be a better way to go. It may well be wrth signing up to a paid channel, if he has one, or Brian Shannon at Alphatrends, or someone at Simpler Trading.
I had several Long swings going, but they mostly stopped out when themarket went soft. .Small losses though. Trailing stops would have helped.
What's the swap rate like on IG, by the way, for holding stocks short overnight??
It's freaky how swing stocks carry on swinging almost despite the market, but they do. The FTSE hardly gained through 2023, but it swung 4-5% about 9 times in its channel. Usable.

 

[Arbu]

The spread on Rheinmetal is enormous at IG - 300 points. Don't know what you're getting.

 

[Justin Passing]

Got up too late for RHM this morning. The spread closes up if it's going in one direction. So far it has been liquid enough...

Spread is now about €0.4 It dropped in standard reaction off the open by half a dozen Euros after the direction was clear.

Currently not much happening. Started from the open noticing btc interest so on the non-cfd platform bought £10k of Microstrategy 3x. Microstrategy is already leveraged so it's a bit wild. It went up 22%. I got 18% which is 1800 quid. That would do you, wouldn't it? No idea where it's going next, alerts set. But I have something else to do .

Arm dropping, earning a bit, loads of fuss from SC of course. Three daaaaahhhlars.

 

[Arbu]

So I see Microstrategy has big bitcoin holdings. I wasn't aware of that, and it wasn't a stock that I followed, so no way I would have seen that. I got into bitcoin and snapchat at the open and the former worked out well:

• 22/04/2024 15:27
  Tesla Motors Inc (All Sessions)
  +0.50
  14274
  14126
  -£74.00
• 22/04/2024 15:26
  Tesla Motors Inc (All Sessions)
  +0.50
  14260
  14137
  -£61.50
• 22/04/2024 15:25
  Tesla Motors Inc (All Sessions)
  +0.50
  14255
  14150
  -£52.50
• 22/04/2024 15:23
  Tesla Motors Inc (All Sessions)
  +0.50
  14303
  14158
  -£72.50
• 22/04/2024 14:55
  NVIDIA Corp (All Sessions)
  +0.10
  78057
  79011
  £95.40
• 22/04/2024 14:54
  NVIDIA Corp (All Sessions)
  +0.10
  78057
  79263
  £120.60
• 22/04/2024 14:52
  NVIDIA Corp (All Sessions)
  +0.10
  78057
  79306
  £124.90
• 22/04/2024 14:49
  NVIDIA Corp (All Sessions)
  +0.10
  78057
  79506
  £144.90
• 22/04/2024 14:46
  NVIDIA Corp (All Sessions)
  +0.10
  78057
  79120
  £106.30
• 22/04/2024 14:36
  Snap Inc (All Sessions)
  +5
  1156.2
  1139.9
  -£81.50
• Total
  £250.10