Stock market dealing

Trump is causing uncertainty in the global financial markets.

Gold price has gone up, U.K. gilts have gone up….because people are searching for safe spaces for their investments.

Interestingly ftse 100 has gone up to an all time high…..at the moment
 
He is, he's a pest! For a day trader it's fine, you just go long or short as appropriate.
For the "savings" it's a bloody nuisance, though.
I've switched somewhat out of "Funds" (OEICS) and am using using ETF's (OK they're also funds but people call them ETFs not Funds....)

I have enough gold to shut Damien Hurst up for a whole day, but it can be volatile stuff.
SLightly less unstable are whole stockmarket indices, like the DAX (German).
And for the more adventurous, it's difficult to resist something like 3KWEB, which is Chinese technical stocks.

If you have money at 5% in a building society, you might want to see what you could have got in the last month:

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These are gold, and gold miners.
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Note these are LEVERAGED funds. They are only really good if the direction in one way. Ie, up. They take balls, and close attention.


What they do is take the movement in the underlying stock, in %, and you get 3 or 5 or whatever, times that.
So for a 3x, if the stock goes up 10%, great, your value goes up 30%
You pay 100 and you get 130.

But if the stock goes down 10%, you pay 100 and get 70% back.
If it goes down 30%, you pay 100 and get 10 back
If it goes down 35%, you have nothing. Ever.

Put another way, if the stock goes down 16.66%, you get 50 back.
To get your 100 back, you then need the leveraged stock value to double,, so the stock itself has to go up 33.3%, not 16.6.

That means that if the stock price is jiggling along, even if it comes out the same at the end of a period, you lose with the leveraged one..

Most of the change can happen at night, so you can't "watch" it.
The spreads can be very wide so there's a loss when you buy or sell.

Here, you'd have woken up on 1st Feb and found you were 12% down. (The candle-type above joins the gaps up)


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Sometimes things work - bought 6 figs of Centrica yesterday at 1.355, paid £600 of tax (0.5%) for all of you, just sold at 1.5 dead. I can afford breakfast now. (Wasn't worth holding it through the year).
Thank you all for paying the inflated price for gas. It's in an ISA so that's it for tax - silly really, Rache.
 
Sometimes things work - bought 6 figs of Centrica yesterday at 1.355, paid £600 of tax (0.5%) for all of you, just sold at 1.5 dead. I can afford breakfast now. (Wasn't worth holding it through the year).
Thank you all for paying the inflated price for gas. It's in an ISA so that's it for tax - silly really, Rache.
I don't know how you do it, and I have to wonder how selective you are being in what you tell us, but well done anyway.

And not a crap shoot this time? https://www.diynot.com/diy/threads/stock-market-dealing.612898/post-5768930

Maybe this will help https://www.gov.uk/guidance/voluntary-payments-donations-to-government?
 
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Oh I could select a few losses for you if you like :)

SOrry don't quickly see the relevance of the '8930.

I'd read around CNA for everything I could find, everything looked bullish.
There's a lot you can do with results. Usually they jump , say up, then freeze, then drop, or sideways for a while, then head off one way or the other.
Just after I posted , at the top, it was falling so I shorted it, It went about 4% down. Jam. All quite slow.
Half the time or just over, it goes as expected, then I grab a profit. Some of those, and some of the other 50%, will either fall back, or come back up, or carry on rising/falling at a good pace. Ifthe report was good but nothing happens, it may well after a couple of days so hang on.
I got hit hard on something a month or two ago which , quite outrageously, didn't rebound immediately.......

FOund it, 7% LLY 14 Jan
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so had to HODL for a while. I think I sold some on that second dip :rolleyes:.

Things are so choppy at the moment I'm going to have a having a rest.
Gold is at ATH and I have a few bonds with it, but they don't all behave. CHina's the same.. I'm aiming to sell when they're well in profit, but they'll probably crash before that. A lot depends on the orange buffoon.
SOme stuff is in that MAN fund, and some a/c use that plus financials and a bit of Baillie G America B & a couple of others which have been giong up several % in the month. Those are down today - the dollar I think.


Take your pick. Purple is the Building society's 5%pa The S&P 500 this month is negative. The blue/grey ones are US large cap, not all Mag7. Normally they rebound from a dip, but this time it looks more determined. The MAN one is about 18%pa atm. That plus financials yellow should clear 25%.

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SOrry don't quickly see the relevance of the '8930.
You said "The banks' results are the next ones out I think. The numbers usually rise into results, followed by a crap shoot on the day, so the buildup is the safer play." I thought your general view was that it wasn't worth having trades over announcements as it was just a gamble.

I note that there was a very big volume spike about 2:30pm on Wednesday for Centrica which maybe was significant. But how you would (a) notice this at the time and (b) interpret it, I don't know.
 
You said "The banks' results are the next ones out I think. The numbers usually rise into results, followed by a crap shoot on the day, so the buildup is the safer play." I thought your general view was that it wasn't worth having trades over announcements as it was just a gamble.
I found quite a bit of specific stuff about this one. Because it's British I guess. Gnerally I wouldn't go as heavy, if at all. The options trades are usually indicative as they were here.
Trying to catch a small win, which as I said you can often do, is ok for a few k and quite fun.
I don't have any NVDA now. I bought some after the last couple of dips as the price came up through the 200 SMA on the daily. That's where the first ellipse is, ithe SMA moves according to the candle period of course. I sold when it stopped out where the second ellipse is. You can't see that on the daily.
That's the usual sort of rise you get pre Earnings. You can see the E on the TV chart by the way.
As it's Nvidia, I think it may move quite a lot, then revert. I'm not very optimistic and I expect it'll drag the tech sector. My long term holdings are already out of much of those bullish funds(above), and most gold. Still in some China but not expecting it to shoot up at the same rate.

Yes, I'd be scared to hold much NVIDIA through earnings this time. Several sympathy stocks will react just after, so one can often use those a bit.

That CNA earnings move was illustrative - the move was about 10%, but the predictable reversion after it was about half as much. and slow enough to track, so that's a far more sensible play. (Just noticed it bounced 4% again!) If you lose £X on the result, that's another option, use £2-3X on the reversion. If there is one. That's revenge trading which is a bad thing of course, but if it's just given a reason like that, less so.
Notes on options plays etc are under the icon top right arrowed.

Some stuff gleaned from the screeners has done ok especially VNET, BABA ( & several ADRs up 30+% in a month) I'm holding some BABA and Baba 3x and using more 3x during the day. MPLN has been ok, CADL., but you only need a few. Baba 3x I bought some at 200 and it's.... 900. I bought PDD as well and that's not copied!
I said someone said Platimum. Wasted some money on that one.

The list I made 3 ish weeks ago now was this - they haven't all done well so were dropped. Baba's been the baby. May be at a level now though. I often use YINN and KWE/3KWE:
BABA,GRAL,KC,SIFY, GDS, HIMS TEM, ,CADL INOD NUTX, VNET MPLN,CYD. You only need a couple if you're watching.

I have some accounts at AJ Bell etc. they have a lot of etfs and their service is good but Invest Engine is cheaper, not a nice site though. "ii" is intermediate. Last two have no, and a crap, screener. Phisses me off when you have to find a fund elsewhere then see if they hold it.
At AJB and HL you can use a fund's sell value as soon as it's sold, where as at most you have to wait for "Settlement". That's a couple or three days extra your money's nowhere, and youhave to keep checking. Overwhelms the charges, over the year.

Embarrassingly I found an account with money in I'd forgotten about at Sainbury's from when their rates were OK. It has been sitting at 4%. I wondered why they kept sending me promo stuff. You don't get paper statements these days..... It's not a fortune but I wish my wife hadn't been standing over my shoulder when I phoned them. I told them I'd closed the account. "Oh no you still have £X in it" - on speaker. The girl sounded very young so I said "Oh jolly good, thanks for finding that, shall we split it?". Stunned silence!.

I expect to lose some on Gold, I mistimed the recent rise & the expected imminent fall, and in my SIPPs you can only buy a company, like Barrick or a fund like Blackrock, which p!ss about.
 
The options trades are usually indicative as they were here.
Where do you view these? The best I can find is a list of about 30 US stocks on IG Index, and there's no chart, so you would have to have a record of where prices were previously to make a comparison.
 
Other people quote options balances, if you can't see them (neither can I). The chart I referred to above which had the ellipses on, I left out the link for, sorry.
It was a TV chart which had options info behnd the icon on the top right.. now, is it still there.....

Ah good - still lurking in Snip and Sketch: but the info behnd the ican has changed. As sid, note the "E" for earnings.

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Market CHameleon is one place to look. They have stuff about prior results , etc too.

TTV quite often highlights it if it's notable.

The Southern accent woman from Simply trading who popped up on TTV untill her last child, uses/quotes it too. Now what's her name..... Danielle Shay. Big on options.
She had a blog or something, not sure if it was paid or free.

Options are intriguing. You have to get your head round them but you can reduce your risk, and you can get paid for simply holding stock long term. As a deep-end introduction, watch a video about an iron butterfly. I come out thinking "ooh that's clever".

I note that there was a very big volume spike about 2:30pm on Wednesday for Centrica
I just found what you mean - but it's small on my T212 crappy chart. That may have been where the US people read the same stuff I'd seen and bought on their open. ??


There's a "potential" new coronavirus found in Chayeeena, HKU5-CoV-2. Not in humans yet but the first case could cause a collapse.

With that and other things I'm selling some stuff after I hit "post reply". If there's dip I'll try to pick the rise after it.

Have just bought ALibaba and BYD in Hong Kong. It's rising, cleared the trailing stop, , .... . . .nope. it sold at a small 1.8% rise.
Baba may be too high, check JD. and Tme, Yum,...
 
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Well if they were indicative to you, as you said, then you must have been able to see them.
Now what are you on about?

You got it wrong again, No I didn't see them, someone else did and commented on it. So what?
Your logic's ****, mate.
Why are you always trying to find something you think you can point to as a contradiction based on one interpretation?
If you perceive a dissonance, it's 90% likely you're assuming something that's wrong, ok?

--
Not a nice day today, 6 of the 7 falling. I wish I'd noticed BRK recently.
I have more gold than I'm comfortable with. I'm hoping it all moves into profit ish so I can get out unscathed more or less. I'm using Funds, not the commodity iself, and they're all over theplace. UP 3% one day, down 3% the next. Bought it just too late.
I need Xi to say something positive, too.
 
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has anybody tried trading bit coin?

here is a youtuber showing how to set up deepseek to automatically trade Ethereum

is this a scam or real?

 
Hello, what's this?

ftcms_b5f97bb5-cb89-47cd-be96-dcad10689055.jpeg


But trading is not the same as investing.

In times of turbulence, somebody can make money out of the mug punters.

Drawing in more mug punters increases the opportunities to milk them.
 
has anybody tried trading bit coin?

here is a youtuber showing how to set up deepseek to automatically trade Ethereum

is this a scam or real?

Only a little as a day trade, with the ETF, after a catalyst. I know a couple of traders buying all the dips and HODLing. (hold on for dear life). One has three coins, one for each kid as an inheritance.
I have made a large part of my Sterling gains due to bitcoin. See later.
In the medium term it will demend on the orange one.
He said he's going to pay off the national debt with it. He's created a Trumpcoin. There's also a Fartcoin - says it all.

I've said before, the AI forex trading app isn't far off. Fourier analysis of the swings and cycles has been shown to predict quite well, but not well enough.
Forex is an obvious target, because it's a semi-closed system.
The day we all have apps on our phones we'll all be incredibly rich, and the garbage won't be collected and the grass won't be mown.
And with the food not grown, the bodies of the starving pile up, and that.

There's already $15T or so traded every day - it's not all going to pay for ice creams in Malaga.
You can already write a simple or quite complex trader in TradingView using Pinescripts. A fellow I know of, you can google if you like, has a bot running which has yielded him about 30% ROI in the past, or last, year. That uses 80 odd indicators, it's not AI, yet. He goes on his travels and it ticks away...

A simple bot program is about 4 lines of code.: Is the stock rising, measured over a fixed period, then you compare a couple of moving averages, like the books say. It works, but it's slow.
Another is as simple as:
Buy when the last candle was green, sell when it was ( or inpractice, is looking) red. They go around like buses, so you get a lot more risers than fallers:
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Then you can go short for the reds, use finer periods (those are weeks), count the narrower candles etc etc.
It works. The 5 means it's a 5x leveraged stock, by the way.
I dont use it, it's far too slow.

I have explained ths before , but again, somewhat simplified:
When bitcoin rises in lurches, stocks which are the platforms for it, like MARA, go up or down often 10-12% per day. Using the bitcoin breeze as a catalyst, I bought Mara on leverage at 5x. Over a preriod it was doing that up to 3 times a week.
So the 12% on x5, is 60%. And three of x1.6 is x4.096, in a week. I don't reinvest all for the same treatment, for several reasons, it mounted up anyway.
So the means was there to do a lot better than x6 in 2 years.
It's harder now. There are fads to catch, like quantum computing, AI computers, and so on. You scour the pre-market looking for them. Open a few, and see which runs.

This was last Friday
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So, leveraged at 5x, that 800% becomes 4000%. Which is x41. 5 minute candles, that's the purple 5.
One only ever gets to take a chunk from the middle to somewhere higher, because it will evaporate in a fraction of a second.
They restrict the number of shares you can buy for things like that so you use multiple accounts, scalp overlapping periods, yada yada.
About x5 in an hour, though.
That was a particularly good one, they aren't every day by any means.
A dropping stock is actually easier thana rising one. The terrible days are when nothing wants to move.
 
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NO I didn't benefit at all from the Rolls Royce results, darn it.:(
But I had a lot in European defence companies:)
 
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