To be honest, I have only seen it happen 3 times. One instance was 20mm thick limestone. Weighed 37kgs.... Not suprising that happened.
The second was 10mm thick 600x400 porcelain, 25kg. 5 blobs of adhesive on the back, so again, not surprising. That was mainly to do with water having room to move and soaking the plaster until it pretty much turned to mush but only released from the plasterboard behind the 5 blobs. Hard to tell if it would have held if fitted correctly.
The 3rd was fitted with full coverage of adhesive.... 600x300, but it was a ready-mixed adhesive, so it never dried properly. The moisture dispersed into the plaster, softened it, and when the tile came down, about 75% of the skim followed. tile weight was 22kg, but in all 3 instances, the plaster wasn't really given a chance.
I know there are many times that a showroom has advised against it but the customers do it anyway, but its not very often I called out to people who have knowingly gone against the advise, so for all I know, they may not have even had any problems.
I have a feeling that the 20kg's will be on the safe side to cover many backs, but if anything does happen, you have gone against the guarantee of the tile and the adhesive, so it is a risk, but you will only be over by 2kg. If you have 100% coverage of adhesive to spread the weight, you "might" be ok.
The safest would be to chip all the plaster off down to the bare plasterboard, tank it, tile it. Or the messy way is to rip all the plasterboard down, replace with Marmox or PDC boards, tape the edges and tile it but not essential unless as Joe says, you want to spend more money to get the "belts and braces" prep.