Ah, but that's not the calculation! If you save £25 but then have to scrap the car and replace it, there will be a lot more than £25 coming back out of your wallet! The OP's dilemma is that he knows the car and its history. It is otherwise in good condition, so he needs to weigh up the extra money in his wallet (which, to be fair, will be a lot more than £25 if he has to pay someone to do it), against the cost of replacing the car if the belt fails. Clearly, if you're in this dilemma in the first place, you're unlikely to be replacing it with a new car, so you then have the second gamble, on whether what you're buying is actually going to be any better than what you had. The longer you leave it, the higher the stakes.