Are Covid deaths being under reported in the UK?

[Notch7]

I don’t know if Covid deaths are under reported.

I do know idiots are over represented on here

 

[Justin Passing]

"“If your enemy uses a weapon that’s one-third as likely to kill you, but four times as many people are shooting at you, you’re now 1.3 times as likely to die!”"

Bogus analogies like that really don't help. You don't get the virus four times as badly because there are 4x more people with it.
I can only assume doctors are saying things like that to get people to have a vaccine, (which would be a bit late, now) or to say something about how important the doctors are.

The graph at the top labelled BBC looks to have been manipulated - there's the ONS one:

And another of theirs which shows the delta step up in deaths in noncovid people more clearly https://www.ons.gov.uk/visualisations/dvc1759/fig1/index.html

You can't take excess deaths too precisely, the numbers waft around a lot over the years. A lot more than the current apparent rise.

In Apr 20, it looked like there were many deaths happening when covid soared, which were ascribed to covid. Lots of reasons why that could be, some mentioned above.
Then that didn't happen in Jan -Feb 21, confusing everyone.

It's early but it looks like Omicron can't be doing much, yet, in the UK. The little yellow tops from September to now, haven't got any bigger, and cases are dropping now. There have been millions of cases at one time (eg est 4.3m) , but no spike in deaths so far.

As I mentioned elsewhere, if you have a large percentage of the population who happen to have covid, then you're going to get the same large percentage showing up in the "positive test witin 28 days" figures which our government use, and get quoted on the news. The dying with covid rate isn't any higher than the general populaton's living with covid rate. This muddying of the figures didn't happen much with delta because there weren't anything like the number of cases in the community.
If you bother to count up the "died in hospital involving covid" you get a much lower set of numbers. I would have thought almost any covid victim would get to hospital.

Here: https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/ You have to pick a day, download the Excel file and look at the 2nd tab, showing daily deaths in hospital, covid involved. It might show say 6 deaths were recorded for the 16th reported on the 18th, 10 deaths were recorded for the 17th on the 18th, and so on. So I guess you have to add them up over a few days.


Stories from the USA are interesting. They're reporting a delay to the deaths, as you would expect, of a week or two. Their hosptals are hit hard, especially with unvaxxed., who are the sickest. Again, it's very hard to find a hard figure for deaths from covid, but I have found it looks like they do use death cert numbers.

"In the United States, there were 516,796 newly reported COVID-19 cases and 940 newly reported COVID-19 deaths on Jan 17, 2022". Well that's tiny at 500:1, but it's the deaths figures in 2-3 weeks which will show what happened to the half million tested +ves.
There are various predictions of deaths in the USA - one is 300,000.

South Africa makes it look worse. Their peak cases was ~Dec 15th, and their deaths (however measured I don't know) still haven't peaked. It looks like it's peaking about now, which means we'll have to wait until something like early-mid Feb to be sure.
OTOH, our London figures may have peaked , without any horrors, yet, so our higher vaccine rate may have helped us dodge it.

 

[JohnD]

Bogus analogies like that really don't help. You don't get the virus four times as badly because there are 4x more people with it.

However if one in a thousand cases of the new variant are severe or fatal, and there are four times as many cases, there may be quite a lot of severe or fatal ones.

Your mention of getting it "four times as badly" is a bogus argument.

 

[Harry Bloomfield]

The vaccine wrecking peoples immune system

Silly responce from one of the usual suspects.

 

[ellal]

Silly responce from one of the usual suspects.

A usual badly worded response from one of the uneducated bunch

"European regulators say giving COVID-19 booster shots too frequently may weaken immune response.

At a press briefing, experts from the European Medicines Agency (EMA) argued that COVID-19 booster shots should not be given too close together.

“We are rather concerned about a strategy that entangles repeated vaccination within a short term. We cannot really continuously give a booster dose every 3 or 4 months,” Marco Cavaleri, the head of Biological Health Threats and Vaccines Strategy at the EMA, said at the briefing.

“If we have a strategy in which we give boosters, let’s say every 4 months approximately, we will end up potentially having a problem with the immune response, and the immune response may end up not being as good as we would like it to be. So we should be careful in not overloading the immune system with repeated immunization,” Cavaleri added."

 

[ellal]

Furthermore...

Meningitis B cases rising sharply among students in England, study finds

"The UKHSA paper suggests the rise in cases may be because of a combination of factors including high levels of transmission in young people, and an “immunity debt” sparked by the fact that lockdowns reduced the opportunities for meningococcal exposure and transmission among adolescents.

“A lower level of immunity could be contributing to the sharp increase in IMD cases following the return to universities"

 

[Dork Lard]

According to statistics me & my cat both have 3x legs.

Statistics haven't been reported correctly, or even logically, since day 1 of this nonsense.

You lot should be more concerned with exactly how they're going to hide/interpret/misrepresent the coming ****storm of undiagnosed & untreated illness.

I still don't know of anyone who's died of this virus, but I know plenty who cannot get a Dr's appointment . . . .

 

[Harry Bloomfield]

Statistics haven't been reported correctly, or even logically, since day 1 of this nonsense.

You do, of course, need to know how to interpret statistics and now how they are based - generally, I think they have been representative.

According to statistics me & my cat both have 3x legs.

I still don't know of anyone who's died of this virus, but I know plenty who cannot get a Dr's appointment . . . .

I doubt the virus itself kills anyone, rather it's the side effects of the virus which kills and yes, I know people who have died of it.

 

[ellal]

I doubt the virus itself kills anyone, rather it's the side effects of the virus which kills and yes, I know people who have died of it.

Read that back to yourself, and then ask...

How do you correlate?

"I doubt the virus itself kills anyone"

with

"I know people who have died of it"

 

[Dork Lard]

It's pneumonia which is killing the victims of Covid-19 and the statistics are clearly showing that most of these victims would probably die regardless if they developed pneumonia from 'whatever' cause.

Why did we lockdown everyone (apart from central govnmnt staff)?

Why is the PCR test for Covid-19 a test that almost no medical scientist would use to test for the presence of a virus?

So many Qu's that start with "WHY"? & precious few logical answers . . . .

The narrative is slowly falling apart. They cannot hide the truth for ever.

 

[JohnD]

According to statistics me & my cat both have 3x legs.

That is not true.

Your ignorance would be embarrassing if you were not too ignorant to comprehend it.

 

[JP_]

"I know people who have died of it"

You managed to respond without saying, "of or with?"!

 

[JP_]

Why did we lockdown everyone (apart from central govnmnt staff)?

Because it was the only way to ensure we didn't have people dying in the streets once hospitals were full, like in other countries.

 

[Justin Passing]

However if one in a thousand cases of the new variant are severe or fatal, and there are four times as many cases, there may be quite a lot of severe or fatal ones.

Yes IF your initial suggestion is right, then yes the rest would follow. And you'd see it in the numbers - people dying above the figure that straight proportions of cases would predict. But so far, it hasn't shown in the numbers. There are so many WITH the darned thing, that if 1 in 1000 is dying, it doesn't show. The daily news report of deaths, to repeat, is "+ve within 28 days". We have been seeing* low hundreds per day. So that's less than one person a day. Yet the reports are called "Covid deaths".

The survey which show 4.3million in the population, covered that snapshot. If people have C19 for 5 days, and the 1/1000 is right, then we should expect to see 4300, spread over 5 days, from that sample. That would lead to 4300/5 added to the actual daily death-from figure. So we should see peaks of 1000 a day to come, adding to the quoted, death-with figure, as that sample develops their disease.

Your mention of getting it "four times as badly" is a bogus argument.

It's not an argument, it's an illustration of the stupidity of the bogus one, which said that if there are 4 times the attackers, then you're 4x more likely to die. Clearly nonsense when you can only get the disease once at a time. You are not suffering the effect of multiple bullets. Tha battlefield analogy doesn't fit and is bogus.
JohnD please try to calm your perennial lust to post something accusative, rather than thinking, to get it right.


*The numbers are on the rise now. The daily reported "tested positive with 28 days" in proportion to the general population infection % (extrapolated number from trend) IS going up. In the daily hospital-death (from C19) reports we are beginning to see more than a dozen or two (yes they really have been around those numbers, as linked) dying from C19 in hospital on a given day.
In the big time lag between Case and DeathFrom, most people get better. And the Case number drops fast, for omicron.
So we'll have more of a situation where the death-with number falls, and the death-from number rises. It'll still be necessary to knock off a couple of hundred or so from the reported (+ve28d) daily figures, but we'll get a truer picture.

 

[Justin Passing]

It's pneumonia which is killing the victims of Covid-19 and the statistics are clearly showing that most of these victims would probably die regardless if they developed pneumonia from 'whatever' cause. [1]

Why did we lockdown everyone (apart from central govnmnt staff)? [2]

Why is the PCR test for Covid-19 a test that almost no medical scientist would use to test for the presence of a virus? [3]

So many Qu's that start with "WHY"? & precious few logical answers . . . .

The narrative is slowly falling apart. They cannot hide the truth for ever.[4]

[1] - you have no link/evidence for that. It's not true
[2] - JP_ has already answered
[3] - is wrong. What PCR measures is precisely that. If you're an idiot then you misinterpret the result...
[4] - the narrative has holes in it, though broadly, JP_'s answer to [2] is the thing.