I suspect the death figures are over-estimated. It's anecdotal but I've heard dozens of stories of people saying their parent died of x, y, z but the death was listed as with covid. These aren't people questioning the figures - these are just people mentioning it incidentally. On the radio the other day somebody from ONS was talking and said the figures were currently under review because the number of 'with covid' deaths where covid was not in any way a factor is becoming too high. He said he thought the figures would be adjusted at some point. The other thing I've heard from a statistician on the radio in the last month or so is that the 5 year average thing is a bit misleading because the year before that was a very bad flu year where more than 40,000 people died in the three winter months. This meant that the following few years were below average years, and we are now comparing the elevated covid years with what were particularly low years. It makes it look worse than it is.
I wish I'd heard that ONS person, do you remember which channel it was?
The BBC statistician (Irish chap) was brought in as an
expert yesterday. He described the recording on death certificates, where you can get a fair idea of OF versus WITH, and talked about the percentages. Then brought in the daily deaths quote, which we know is only a "+ve28 day" record, and implied the same percentages would hold.
Of course they wouldn't!
The ONS say there are the different ways to count etc, here
https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/tran...19ratherthandeathswithin28daysofapositivetest so you think "great, I'll look it up" - but up to date figures just aren't there. Wait until Feb 22.
So BBC man has taken conclusions from one set of data and applied them to a different set. Moron!
It's all a bit annoying. One expects junk on these forums but so-called experts should know better.
Cases are high still but over the peak, OK. No real argument there.
Deaths are rising - as you'd expect, it can take a week or two delay for the disease to kill someone. OK.
HM Gov talks about reducing mask mandates soon. Debatable, could be argued either way, but logic is there. OK.
Some twát on the radio this morning says that the rising death numbers should mean we have to wear masks more now. UH?
No, that doesn't follow because - oh FFS never mind.
He can wear his mask forever. Carry on.
Clearer messaging on no masks next Thursday now. People advised to still wear them in crowded areas. Interesting one. That could be to show people what happens if they don't but more likely to increase the number who will still use them in shops etc anyway. They will still be required on public transport in London. That may be down to the fact that huge numbers of people use it.
