Electric Car Drivel

... hence feel it crucial that we attempt to reduce those emissions as much as possible.
I'd add a slight amendment to that ... "as much as is reasonably possible and makes economic sense". For the closed of mind like BAS, that does NOT mean "don't do anything that costs money", it means standing back and asking "is this the best use of the money available ?"

As I mentioned earlier, to get down to the levels of emissions some people are calling for will be HUGELY expensive, involving mind boggling amounts of money (and international political co-operation). To avoid all the complication of trying to shoehorn a highly complex discussion about a highly complex system that no-one fully understands into a just a few words, I'll use an analogy.

In some parts of the UK there is a flooding problem. In some cases this is entirely man made because some developer decided that a flood plain was a good place to build houses, and the planners (sometimes against the advice of the Environment Agency (EA)) gave them permission. As an aside, my dad used to tell me that whenever they (my parents) were looking at houses - one of the first things he'd consider was the risk of flooding - and when I think back, the houses I've lived in have tended to be in locations where "if we're flooded, then down there they'll be out of sight" might be applied.
So, do we spend ever increasing amounts of money protecting those houses from the predictable flooding, in turn causing flooding elsewhere (by taking a flood plain out of use), and then spending money on dealing with that flooding, and ... ?
Or do we decide that the cheaper option is simply to compensate the owners of the houses, knock them down, return the flood plain to use, and solve the problem ?

So far, it seems that the decision is that we protect the houses - it's been politically unacceptable to talk about forcibly moving the residents and bulldozing their homes.
Similarly, in the ACC debate, it appears to be politically unacceptable to ask the question ... well relative to the costs of avoiding the sea level rises, what would it cost to simply relocate everyone within x cm of current sea levels ?

And at the risk of going back on topic, part of the reason that nuclear is so expensive is the requirement that risks be not just As Low As Reasonably Practical as applied to just about anything else, but As Low As Practical (regardless of cost). If you take a step back, and given how dire the need to decarbonise the economy, does this massive increase in costs to avoid tiny risks mean that we are missing an opportunity to mitigate even bigger risks by very slightly increasing risk in nuclear in return for more nuclear generation and the ability to reduce fossil fuel burn ? No I don't have an answer to that, but it's clear that powerful forces (anti-nuclear lobbyists and sensationalist media) have made sure that the average man in the street associates nuclear with "big bangs" rather than carbon free power.
 
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Whilst I suppose we should be thinking about our descendants 1000+ years into the future, if this is even remotely true, it is obviously something we need to consider very seriously if we are hoping for a 'quick fix' that would benefit the next few dozen generations, let alone ourselves!
It also lends more weight to the "stop emissions at the cost of crippling society under the costs vs deal with the changes" debate. If true, then there's a hint that we can spend ourselves into penury (with all the social costs* that involves) but still not "solve" the problem.

* Such costs are real, and already exist. Taking a simple example, we throw money at "green energy" and various greenwash projects - thus increasing energy bills for everyone. And at the same time as artificially inflating energy costs, the news has frequent stories about the number of households unable to pay the bills - the "heat or eat" dilemma.
 
I'd add a slight amendment to that ... "as much as is reasonably possible and makes economic sense". For the closed of mind like BAS, that does NOT mean "don't do anything that costs money", it means standing back and asking "is this the best use of the money available ?" ... As I mentioned earlier, to get down to the levels of emissions some people are calling for will be HUGELY expensive, involving mind boggling amounts of money (and international political co-operation). ...
I largely agree, although the goalposts actually move if we decide that we are facing a 'global catastrophe' in the foreseeable future. Under those circumstances, I suppose that almost any price would have to be regarded as worth paying.

If what I have just posted is even remotely correct, it seems that the most we could hope for would be to slow or stop the progression of climate change (from the point in time at which we effected substantial decreases in emissions), if it's going to take 1000 years before the climate changes that have already occurred actually start reversing!

Kind Regards, John
 
There is no published evidence from climatologists which would support that suspicion.
I have started looking at the literature and, as I suspected, many/most of the papers are much more 'guarded' ('scientifically reasonable') than you seem to think. They say things like (written mainly by NASA 'experts' (see here) ...
Rosenzweig et al 2008 said:
... most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-twentieth century is very likely to be due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, and furthermore that it is likely that there has been significant anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years averaged over each continent except Antarctica ...

Kind Regards, John
 
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Any comment/thoughts about that
Yes, hence my use of the phrase "slow down" not reverse!

There are a lot of people who think we are already beyond the point of no return, but like extreme views on both sides, it's difficult to take them seriously.

We have a choice to make as a species, and spending money now to help generations of people hundreds of years in the future is not the kind of decisions we have proven capable of making. Plus, as Simon says, big enough changes now to actually make a significant difference could send us back to the stone age
 
Yes, hence my use of the phrase "slow down" not reverse!
As I implied, I hadn't realised that the recovery was so slow - so I look forward to learning (if I can) the reasons why that is thought to be the case. However, even if 'reversal' takes centuries, in the meantime we could at least get as close as feasible to halting the further progression (i.e. try to 'stop', rather than just 'slow' the progression).
There are a lot of people who think we are already beyond the point of no return, but like extreme views on both sides, it's difficult to take them seriously.
Indeed. I think that such views are unnecessarily alarmist at present. I imagine that the 'point of no return' will/would come when we got into 'thermal snowballing' and, even if we do nothing, predictions seem to suggest that would not happen for at least a century or two.
We have a choice to make as a species, and spending money now to help generations of people hundreds of years in the future is not the kind of decisions we have proven capable of making.
Indeed, but I suppose understandable when we have enough issues that really need to be addressed in the present and immediately foreseeable future. Selfish, perhaps, but if we don't sort out the imemdiate future, there may not be distant generations to worry about!
Plus, as Simon says, big enough changes now to actually make a significant difference could send us back to the stone age
Indeed - but, as I replied to him, if we ever to approach that point of no return (impending global catastrophe) then even a return to the stone age might seem like a better option than extinction. That is why we need to take steps to fend off our approach to that situation!

Kind Regards, John
 
For the closed of mind like BAS, that does NOT mean "don't do anything that costs money", it means standing back and asking "is this the best use of the money available ?"
He is so busy criticising people for what he thinks their views are (mainly incorrectly in the case of myself) that I haven't really worked out what BAS's position actually is!

If he merely supports the idea of doing everything reasonable (as you say, not necessarily 'everything theoretically possible') to reduce 'ACC' in the broadest sense (i.e. not just by reducing/eliminating the burning of fossil fuels), then I don't think any of us would disagree with him. However, his views may be different from that!

Kind Regards, John
 
As I implied, I hadn't realised that the recovery was so slow - so I look forward to learning (if I can) the reasons why that is thought to be the case
As has been said by a few of us, we have unbalanced the natural carbon cycle and the earth will take a long time to redress it. Analogy of a flood. It takes a few hours to soak a house, but many weeks to dry it. We have soaked the atmosphere for 200 years, and it will take millennia to dry out
 
As with BAS's "dominant", I suppose that it depends on what you mean by "most significant". If you mean something like "the single largest factor", then I would definitely agree. The scientist in me would be happier if there were a "very probably", or even "almost certainly" in that sentence, but I can live without it (unless "most significant" means "virtually all"!)

Well semantics aside, co2 emmisions are the single biggest contribution to what is most likely to be climate change caused by human activity
 
Well semantics aside, co2 emmisions are the single biggest contribution to what is most likely to be climate change caused by human activity
As I've said, I have no problem in agreeing with "single biggest contribution", particular when there is also a "most likely" in the sentence.

If I were being really pedantic, I suppose I might prefer "single biggest known contribution", but that really isn't necessary!

Kind Regards, John
 
As has been said by a few of us, we have unbalanced the natural carbon cycle and the earth will take a long time to redress it. Analogy of a flood. It takes a few hours to soak a house, but many weeks to dry it. We have soaked the atmosphere for 200 years, and it will take millennia to dry out
That's a very vague 'explanation', which is why I will be looking for more specific information. As I see it, the contribution of 'human' emission' is still pretty small relative to the total turnover of carbon (and has been much lower until relatively recently). If, as appears to be the case, the natural processes are able to adapt more-or-less in real time to natural variations affecting the carbon cycle, I find it difficult to understand why it should take centuries for it to deal with the relatively small contributions by man.

As I understand it, in the laboratory or commercial greenhouse, increasing ambient CO2 levels results in an almost immediate increase in photosynthesis - one doesn't have to wait centuries!

I'll let you know if I discover a more meaningful explanation!

Kind Regards, John
 
As I understand it, in the laboratory or commercial greenhouse, increasing ambient CO2 levels results in an almost immediate increase in photosynthesis - one doesn't have to wait centuries
But only a fraction of that co2 will actually be utilised and that imagines a perfect system where there are no other limiting factors. Unfortunately we can't make the sunshine 24 hours a day or ensure perfect moisture levels in all soils so they will limit any increase in photosynthesis
 
But only a fraction of that co2 will actually be utilised and that imagines a perfect system where there are no other limiting factors. Unfortunately we can't make the sunshine 24 hours a day or ensure perfect moisture levels in all soils so they will limit any increase in photosynthesis
True, but for a given amount of sun, given degree of moisture etc., increased CO2 should result in an increase in photosynthesis, hence movement of 'excess CO2' into biomass.

In fact, I've now had a quick look through the whole of the Solomon et al paper (the one I quoted regarding the >1000 year 'recovery time') and, as far as I can make out from that quick look, it seems that their model does not consider the biological processes at all. They seem to be looking primarily at CO2 uptake by the oceans (followed by gradual migration to deeper parts of the oceans), with geological processes then remove the remainder of the excess CO2 over a period of millennia.

I'll have a more careful look later, and see if what I've just said is actually true.

Kind Regards, John
 
Historical ice core data suggest the variations we are seeing in co2 levels are outside of "normal" so whilst the system is adapting, it can't do it "overnight"
In terms of short-term variation, that is undoubtedly true, but, if anything, that supports the point I was making. There will inevitably have been appreciable short-term variation in biological activity (e.g. due to periods of extremes of temperature, rainfall, vulcanism etc.) but the natural control processes ('the carbon cycle') managed to maintain atmospheric CO2 levels pretty constant during those periods (in more-or-less real time) despite that.

Kind Regards, John
 

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