Exit Poll

[Doug99]

How can only 133 polling stations and the feedback from only 20,000 voters where exit poll figures are captured, reflect the outcome of over 600 constituencies?
Exit polls have been pretty accurate during past elections so am rather flummoxed.

Its only 11pm at the moment so will see how accurate it is this time.

Edited

 

[Doug99]

This link provides the breakdown of each constituency and the probability of each exit poll result.

Exit poll: What is the forecast election result in my constituency?

Use our look-up to find out what result the exit poll forecasts for your constituency.

news.sky.com

 

[fillyboy]

This link provides the breakdown of each constituency and the probability of each exit poll result.

Exit poll: What is the forecast election result in my constituency?

Use our look-up to find out what result the exit poll forecasts for your constituency.

news.sky.com

Kinell.

 

[securespark]

Why Kinell?

 

[big-all]

Kinell.

View attachment 348070

Exact opposite to Reigate labour chance 1% tory 80% libdem 18%

 

[JonathanM]

The exit poll seems to have got the number of Reform seats seriously wrong. Several UK Polling Report forum members said that number couldn't be correct. But otherwise it looks like it is going to be pretty accurate.

There are several articles online about how it works but I can't pretend to understand it.

 

[Odds]

Eighth time's the charm for Nige'. His smugness will be boundless.

Labour - 326
Cons - 70

The Greens have doubled their share!

 

[motorbiking]

How can only 133 polling stations and the feedback from only 20,000 voters where exit poll figures are captured, reflect the outcome of over 600 constituencies?
Exit polls have been pretty accurate during past elections so am rather flummoxed.

Its only 11pm at the moment so will see how accurate it is this time.

Edited

If you get the sample right, statistical relevance can be achieved with a very small sample. As you add more the gains in accuracy are very very small

 

[Mottie]

Close but no cigar round here.

 

[JonathanM]

Liz Truss has just lost

 

[JonathanM]

And then when she was asked if she wanted to give a concession speech she just walked off the stage.

Utterly useless and delusional.

 

[fillyboy]

Why Kinell?

It's only in recent years the Cons have got a foothold in Cornwall, prior to that it was strongly Lib Dem so if there was to be a change, I would have expected it to be back to the Libs, not Labour.

Oh well, keep the red flag flying and all that.

 

[Odds]

Tories have been crushed in the Peaks. For the first time in over 50 years we've got a Labour mp...in fact, the whole county has turned red overnight. It's been a bloodbath in D.shire.

 

[fillyboy]

Tories have been crushed in the Peaks. For the first time in over 50 years we've got a Labour mp...in fact, the whole county has turned red overnight. It's been a bloodbath in D.shire.

And to think all this was over a glass of wine and a slice of birthday cake.

 

[JonathanM]

Could Johnson make a comeback now?