So, what's the expectations for the 5th of July?
By then we should have had another 14,000,000 jabs, which is enough to get up to 58%+ of the UK fully vaccinated.
We're currently quadrupling case numbers every fortnight so we should have roughly 28,000 cases a day in a fortnight and 112,000 by the 5th. Which is far higher than the worst of the second wave, but we are expecting fewer hospitalisations or deaths for a given number of cases.
At some point the growth has to stop, either because the vaccinations and infections have starved Covid-19 of victims or because we've stepped up controls. The vaccinations are slowing that spread and it'll continue to be slowed as we get more people covered but we're talking about a gradual reduction. I don't know if we'd consider opening up more with spiraling case numbers but it seems unlikely.
Another thing is that we're probably going to go back on every other country's equivalent of the red list. If some countries allow vaccinated people in then that's fine but if they don't have that flexibility foreign holidays are likely to be difficult.