Putin, arse, elbow

[IT Minion]

I wonder where these will fit in really as the actual fighting is mostly relatively close range.

You're wrong on that. This is the largest artillery war since WW2. Possibly by an order of magnitude.

The Russian doctrine is to reduce enemy positions with massive artillery fire and then clean up with Infantry and armour. The final infantry actions are short ranged, but it's the artillery that wins it.

Also HIMARS seems to being used in counter battery fire. That is one of the things that it does really well that the Russians have little to match. Their MRLS are shorter ranged and less accurate, relying on saturation to get kills.

 

[ajohn]

You're wrong on that.

Did you notice the word relative?

 

[IT Minion]

Did you notice the word relative?

And I think you're still wrong.

This is a war mostly involving indirect long range artillery. HIMARS, M270, MARS-II and so on are purpose built to fight and win those sorts of engagements against Russian artillery.

 

[ajohn]

I see 10's and 100's as relative. War In Ukraine goes through Russia's fighting technique as you mention. He also mentions line of sight, hills and an advantage Russia has. While a gun may have a certain range that doesn't mean it's the most effective range to use it at which is why guided munitions come in. Accuracy specs mentioned - it's worth looking at what they mean in practice. I don't think he understands Ukraine's hit and run tactics either and if at his latest idea - closely grouping western aids - I suspect it would be a disaster. They'd see the biggest missile strike they have ever seen,

Anyway. 48 cruise missile strikes reported by Kyiv last night. One cluster on a base not mentioned before.

One thing for sure though things are still fluid. I'm wondering if there will be some sort of result in September.

 

[transam]

Your favourite subject. More on the lines of will fractures occur really not that they have.

Also some rumblings in the USA - what about those?

They never mentioned the USA in the report

They did specifically mention the Germans

And yes the word “ fracture” was used

Take it how you like Transam gives not a jot one way or the other

 

[Justin Passing]

The Ukranians will wind up with only less than 50 Western MRLS max; west Europe doesn't have many to give. They've lost a third of the US m777s sent so far (wiu). More from usa due later??

That's really not enough.
Also The Uks don't have the long range long duration UAVs like the Russian Orlan, to direct the artillery fire. (wiu)
Ideally you put enough of the accurate systems together to knock out a chunk of Russ weapons, but the Russ have a choice of long range missile systems to use if the target's worth it. They have live satellite imaging and fast missiles.
Here's a clip showing Ukranians using an M777.. It doesn't look to me as though they're aiming carefully.

Ukrainian Troops Get Morale Boost As M777 Howitzers Make An Impact

The Ukrainian military has started to actively use the 155-millimeter howitzer M777, which the United States handed over to Ukraine. The long-range artillery has already made an impact during the exchange of fire with Russian forces in eastern Ukraine.

www.rferl.org

We've seen Italy + Germany + France join up to try to get Zelenskyy to go for some sort of peace deal, so those 3 countries don't get their oil & gas cut off. Those countries have their own rising-prices problems, the French Rail unions etc are planning their strikes for pay. Ever higher fuel prices, or rationing, would have the plebs revolting.
Europe has backed down on letting supplies go though to Kaliningrad. We can expect nuclear weapons to be placed there.
Boris is about the only one still waving a fist at Putin. We sent 4 MRLS, wow. Wouldn't be surprised if Putin gives us a slap.

The Russian army may be geriatric , even letting low level criminals join up now, but their WW1/2 style creeping bombardment is working.

Russia is selling a load more oil to India,, and some more to China. The ruble is strong. Oil & gas are off their peaks, but wait for winter.

 

[ajohn]

We've seen Italy + Germany + France join up to try to get Zelenskyy to go for some sort of peace deal,

TBH I think that is slanted news. We wont know what was actually talked about. It's more of an expectation if stuff does get cut off to the point that the populations revolt. If you listened to plans for if that happens their aim is to continue supplying the public some how or the other. I wonder how they will get paid in a number of areas. UK of course wont be touched - I wonder. No idea. Boris has plenty of reasons for being in the public eye as much as possible at the moment. I wonder what he chatted about. Training troops has been mentioned.

Russian goods in transit across the EU. Not part of the sanctions. A diplo solution needed because anything else could well upset arrangements that have currently been set up to cope with the situation and get them agreed. I don't think the USA would argue about the outcome. This is a war and it not just a fighting one. Nukes - come on, they are in subs all over the place. Silos don't seem to figure any more. These days the aim looks to be to carpet bomb areas with war heads. Then there are cruise missiles and mobile land launch.

There are lots of countries in the world that will continue to buy Russian stuff because meeting the sanctions would cause them too much harm. Some of the west may see itself in the same situation at some point. USA, unlikely to be so bad. I assume they aren't all stupid and can predict some sort of final situation at some point. I'm not so sure as a major cog in the global supply chain has been knocked out. It's tricky to see how it can become active again.

Grain. Out of interest
Top 15 Wheat Exporters by Country

• Russia: US$7.3 billion (13.1% of total wheat exports)
• United States: $7.29 billion (13.1%)
• Australia: $7.2 billion (13%)
• Canada: $6.6 billion (11.9%)
• Ukraine: $4.7 billion (8.5%)
• France: $4.6 billion (8.2%)
• Argentina: $3 billion (5.3%)
• Germany: $2 billion (3.6%)

A question. Will Russia want to starve people who live in areas where they are more acceptable? There forecast was 43 million tonnes of grains in total all types. 6m short of usual, covid maybe?

The problem. Russia went expansionist. Usual reasons given and something has to be done about it. If they attacked a NATO country what would happen? Invade Russia and win, the nukes should come into play so just how could a war be fought? Are Ukraine really piggy in the middle? I'm not a fan of geopolitics which will slant views I have but there is a real problem - the invasion.

I watch the history channel from time to time. Military equipment, arms etc. Countries stock numbers to suite their army. During WWII the USA built it's air arm up to over 1,000,000 men. That's the lot not just pilots, all of the support as well. No one runs ones that big now and kit stock will be sized to suite. Zelensky wants 100 PH2000 from Germany. If they sent them there would be none left. If they have that many. 17,000,000 euro each and it can shoot some amazing ammo at a pretty high rate but they will be rather expensive. Training has delayed use. That's why M777 were sent. Near zero needed. Spare barrels too, shells at a sufficient rate? WWII was all about production rates. Hitler didn't have a chance once that got going. Some countries early on could not cope.

A Ukrainian team shooting shells blindly was interviewed. They reckoned about 5 shots and then time to move. Must admit I have wondered how M777 fit in with this if correct. They need a shell supply as well. I wondered if the tow vehicles sent helped with this. |The pregnant pauses on both sides probably relate to supply.

It seems Russia in total gets overdue on debt payments today. They have been prevented from paying them. War In Ukraine wonders if this will reflect into the stock markets. He should also read up on Iraq invasion problems. He might then realise why it's being fought as it is but must admit I think Russia not using more shock and awe initially doesn't make sense. I'm no expert.

I did see one interesting recent clip taken from a drone. Russian plane, bombing run. Low level. Suggests there must still be some anti aircraft stuff around. Makes one style of war potentially very expensive.

Also heard that Belarus is starting war games on the boarder. Maybe with some provocations.

 

[transam]

The Donbas or a large part of it are lost to the Ukraine permanently

Imo that is the reality of the situation ?

 

[Justin Passing]

To accept that is to accept that Putin or his successor will have control over fossil fuel and a large part of the world food supply.
IMO, 'the west' needs to wake up to that.

Not as badly as USSR days though. Not something to panic about.
Back then Ru had to import grain.

 

[ajohn]

Donbas grain production is relatively low.

Crop Explorer for Major Crop Regions - United States Department of Agriculture

ipad.fas.usda.gov

The absence of Russian and Belarus exports is causing serious problems in a number of areas not just grain. Latest idea seems to be Russian gold - that may have effects on the electronics area but a lot of it is reprocessed now. How much extra needed - pass. The sanctions are thought to not achieve much this year. Depends on who to believe. Not sure I trust USA comments and they are not that popular in some parts of the world.

Kyiv has been hit again. Arms factory. A citizen mentioned 4 missiles. An apartment block damaged in an odd way compared with the usual. I wonder if the missile was shot down. Thought to coincide with the G7 meeting. A demo of what Russia can do but the earlier strike was far more "impressive". Nothing of use to us out of the G7. Talks behind closed doors and the usual for home consumption for each of the heads. The UN attempts to sort out grain do sound like they are getting some where. I'm guessing they need to persuade both sides to show some flexibility.

Zelenskyy's wants have increased but the talk with the G7 was behind closed doors. It seems the west may send in a game changer. What - don;t know. A missile defence system has been mentioned but it has been before. All Ukraine support will continue from all.

War In Ukraine critical of using MRLs on dumps and thinks they should be used on artillery etc. Well without the munitions those are useless. He also talked about GRAVs. He thinks all are like the older ones, some are thought to have been upgraded. The new version can use precision rockets. The earlier ones didn't. It seems a salvo of both can cover 1 square mile. I'd assume that can be reduced if needed for more concentrated damage. Ukraine has at least one version - munitions - pass.

A citizen from the east mentioned how frightening low level bombing runs are especially when there are lots of them. She could see the pilot at times. I was fishing once in an area where eurofighters where doing their stuff. Can't hear them coming until they are directly above and passing. The noise is incredible. Anyway Ukraine does have Russia's 250mile range anti aircraft stuff. Might explain the low level bombing. Also the arms factory hit in Kyiv.

West and really Ukraine's worry. I'd say how long can Russia keep it up gaining territory and maybe how far annexation might go. Hitler had too much territory to control and effectively not enough supplies. I see this one as when will Russia run out.

Just been a NATO announcement ahead of the summit. The eastern flank is going to bristle. Dumps, gear already there etc and an increase in rapid reaction troops to 300,000. Budget increase. The summit will probably relate to which countries do what but it appears that each country's NATO rep broadly agree.

 

[transam]

To accept that is to accept that Putin or his successor will have control over fossil fuel and a large part of the world food supply.
IMO, 'the west' needs to wake up to that.

Well that may well be the reality to an extent

Not good I agree

But I am of the opinion that this alliance of the west against Putin will slowly un ravel
It’s only a question of time ????

 

[transam]

Who is to stop him ? Unless nato is
Prepared to take direct military action ?

Weapon systems are not getting
To the Ukraine quickly
Enough and in sufficient quantity

Putin can strike any area in the Ukraine with his missiles

The west did nowt when he took over the Crimea ? Plus he has been
In the Donbas since 2014


Germany and others are heavily reliant on Russian oil / gas

Tis a dogs breakfast

 

[ajohn]

But I am of the opinion that this alliance of the west against Putin will slowly un ravel

Given the USA view that Russia must be bought to it's knees, incapable of having it's forces etc again how can sanctions end until it's in that state and what would happen then? Would they end?

Given that's going to happen why set up a NATO fortress on the eastern flank, That wont happen overnight. They are also thinking about China.

3 EU heads go talk to Zelenskyy - what about ? The G7 are adamant that they will continue to support Ukraine, money and military kit. All are including these 3 EU heads. Boris has been as well, What did he talk about?

Macron's comment. I'd like to hear it in context and when. The CIA have been saying the same thing for a very long time.

They say it looks like this is going long term. Even Boris is saying all have problems with inflation in their home countries. It's not just food and fuels. Minerals figure as well. He's also saying that politically Zelenskyy can't give up.

It's pretty obvious why some think the alliance may break up.

 

[Odds]

Russia was already the world's top grain producer before the invasion of Ukraine and despite everything they still can't make an attack on Odessa without incurring substantial losses in men and equipment.
I'd suggest the port becomes a bargaining chip after the Donbas region is occupied by Russian forces: sanctions to be lifted n exchange for an end to hostilities. Obviously the West cannot be seen to cave too soon, so the conflict will continue into the winter when gas prices become a real issue for the EU, and further military action inflicted on Ukrainian forces may bring them to the bargaining table.
Then it's all about public perception and whose propaganda has most impact. It sickens me to hear someone on BBC news call the attack on the supermarket in kremenchuk as 'a crime against humanity' when such comments were conspicuously absent when American aircraft are dropping bombs on Afghan weddings and drone strikes on suburban houses where innocent people are torn to pieces.
This has become a complete failure of political and diplomatic efforts to reach any point of agreement over the past decade.

 

[transam]

Imo a mistake was made when Putin massed his forces on the border

US and Uk military intel had very credible info that an invasion was imminent

Instead of evacuating there embassies they should have sent in
A small number of troops in order to secure and protect there embassies

As I under stand it an embassy is technically sovereign territory ???

(Afai am
Aware)

May have sent a message

Attack a nato members embassy and staff

Article 5 ????