Rising used car prices.

[sxturbo]

https://cleantechnica.com/2021/08/2...s-8-minute-charge-times-1000-kilometer-range/

That's directly comparable with Petrol fueling.

It is only a matter of time, and always has been.

Mobile phones can now do the same thing, my phone has a 300w (might be a slight exaggeration, but it's a big charger) peak charger that charges the battery from 10% to 80% in 20 minutes.

The problem comes with the size of the chargers needed, it certainly won't be something that can be plugged into a standard domestic supply. But as the article explained most owners will charge their cars at home overnight at least once per week, and their journeys will only average 20 odd miles a day. So it's not a huge issue, although it is for those that live in flats or don't have driveways or designated parking spaces.

 

[Mottie]

https://cleantechnica.com/2021/08/2...s-8-minute-charge-times-1000-kilometer-range/

That's directly comparable with Petrol fueling.

Promises promises. I was promised I'd be holidaying on the moon and eating a pill for my dinner 45 years ago!

 

[crystal ball]

Wheres my jet pack?

 

[ReganAndCarter]

I'll hang onto to petrol and diesel vehicles as long as possible. Don't do huge mileages, so makes sense for the forseeable, but I only ever run older/low value vehicles so there's little money tied up in the two I own.

Not panicking about deadlines for petrol, diesel, they're already backpedalling on the gas boiler and ASHP efficiencies and deadline. Politicians and their promises........................

Promises promises.

All gone a bit mad with used vehicles. Friend bought a big 2006 motorhome 4 years ago for £30,000. Says it's now worth slightly more than he paid for it and regularly gets people asking him if it's for sale. Who would have imagined that ordinary non-classic/veteran vehicles would now be an investment?

 

[diy_fun_uk]

I'll hang onto to petrol and diesel vehicles as long as possible. Don't do huge mileages, so makes sense for the forseeable, but I only ever run older/low value vehicles so there's little money tied up in the two I own.

Not panicking about deadlines for petrol, diesel, they're already backpedalling on the gas boiler and ASHP efficiencies and deadline. Politicians and their promises........................


All gone a bit mad with used vehicles. Friend bought a big 2006 motorhome 4 years ago for £30,000. Says it's now worth slightly more than he paid for it and regularly gets people asking him if it's for sale. Who would have imagined that ordinary non-classic/veteran vehicles would now be an investment?

This is what I wonder, exactly how will they manage what will be a HUGE transition from petrol/diesel to EVs. Okay, they might set a deadline after which no new petrol/diesels can be sold e.g. 2030, however a semblance ... probably a large semblance ... of the existing infrastructure to serve those vehicles will need to remain in place for years after any deadline. So I wonder if they'll do something like a 2030 deadline for new sales and a sort of decommissioning transition period between 2040-2050 for all petrol/diesel vehicles to be off the road?

And what about old classic cars, will they be exempt? And if yes, where do those people buy their petrol/diesel?

I've been running my current diesel car since new, bought it in 2008. I'll probably change it in the next 2-3 years for a 2nd hand petrol/diesel (relatively new low mileage) and run that for at least a decade. So that'll take me to circa 2032-34 and at that point I'll go for an EV. By then both the technology and infrastructure should be that bit better.

 

[JohnD]

This is what I wonder, exactly how will they manage what will be a HUGE transition from petrol/diesel to EVs. Okay, they might set a deadline after which no new petrol/diesels can be sold e.g. 2030, however a semblance ... probably a large semblance ... of the existing infrastructure to serve those vehicles will need to remain in place for years after any deadline.

if the big car manufacturers have given up designing new petrol/diesel cars (which they have) then the market willl dwindle even without enforcement.

I understand that the average age of a UK car is now 8.4 years, which is abnormally old because car manufacturing has stalled due to the pandemic.

When chip availability improves, and the factories ramp up production, there will be a boom of new cars, feeding down through the used market, and the older cars will get junked.

I doubt I will buy more than one petrol car in future.

 

[IT Minion]

This is what I wonder, exactly how will they manage what will be a HUGE transition from petrol/diesel to EVs. Okay, they might set a deadline after which no new petrol/diesels can be sold e.g. 2030, however a semblance ... probably a large semblance ... of the existing infrastructure to serve those vehicles will need to remain in place for years after any deadline. So I wonder if they'll do something like a 2030 deadline for new sales and a sort of decommissioning transition period between 2040-2050 for all petrol/diesel vehicles to be off the road?

And what about old classic cars, will they be exempt? And if yes, where do those people buy their petrol/diesel?

I've been running my current diesel car since new, bought it in 2008. I'll probably change it in the next 2-3 years for a 2nd hand petrol/diesel (relatively new low mileage) and run that for at least a decade. So that'll take me to circa 2032-34 and at that point I'll go for an EV. By then both the technology and infrastructure should be that bit better.

My guess:
EV subsidies will end by around 2025 when they are the same price as ICE cars. Then the petrol duty starts creeping up again.

By the time new Petrol cars are banned there'll only be a tiny demand for them as by then they'll be more expensive to buy as well as more expensive to run.

In the 30s the petrol stations will be chasing a shrinking market and will go the way of high street banks, slowly closing up as they can't make a profit.

There'll be more ULEZ style no go zones which will make them less useful than EVs, but God knows when.

By the end of the 30s Petrol cars will be a novelty in the UK but not banned. It'll just be too expensive and awkward to use them.

 

[Mottie]

I’ll probably be fully electric by the 30’s - probably get one of these.

 

[mitch66]

I'm guessing combi boilers will be a thing of the past soon then, if they have to go electric? Maybe even leccy heat only boilers? Imagine this, Friday night after work, one car is drawing 30 ish amps, hot tubs drawing 30 ish amps, rest of house is pulling say 10 amps? 16KW leccy heat only boiler is pulling 70 amps. 140 amps with only the one car (cos no house has more than one do they lol). Oh hang on dads van, mums Bimmer, sons car, daughters car. Oh wait my leccy combi draws 150 amps. No probs.
Except meter is rated at 100 amps, maybe 80 amps? Thank god the cables in the street can handle a power draw x amount of times more than before. Oh they can't? Don't worry every single residential street in the whole country will be dug up and re wired by 2030. Does anyone believe this will really happen? If so please send me £100 so I can release your funds from my brother M'bongi in Africa, he's a King you know.

 

[Ihavenojob]

Don't do huge mileages, so makes sense for the forseeable,

I'm the opposite, just do fewer, but longer trips. last week I did about 900 miles in 3 trips, but my car (diesel) is doing 60+mpg.

 

[diy_fun_uk]

I'm not even saying it's wrong on quite a few levels (the move away from petrol/diesel vehicles and trying to reduce car usage) I get it. Having said that, I'm pleased I've had 30ish years of relatively free driving, free in the sense of driving where I want, when I want, in the car I want and at the speed I want (safely and within speed limits) and for the first 10-15 years without speed bumps! Ah those were the days! I hope to have another 25-30 years of driving ahead of me, however I'm expecting what we consider driving freedoms to become ever more restricted. Having said that, maybe 20+ years from now I'll be able to get in the car and say 'car, take me to my sisters house' and put my feet up, so it might not all be bad

And I must be getting old, when I read stuff about current cars it's increasingly to do with 'it needs a software update' and 'it resolves after I turn it off and turn it on again' and 'why doesn't it just have switches and knobs for things like the AC?' No you can't stop progress, neither should you, however with cars becoming more 'device like' by the day, I remember technically more simple cars like my Fiesta XR2i and Cavalier GSi with a smile on my face. Today's cars to me are becoming ever more blandsville, yes maybe they're a lot safer, more comfortable and filled with tech. But I'll remember driving in the late 80's into the early 00's as my happiest driving years.

Sorry for the (slightly rose-tinted) ramble

 

[IT Minion]

Sorry for the (slightly rose-tinted) ramble

I'm glad that cars don't break down as much and that they're cheaper to maintain. With the much simpler EVs that should be even better in the future.

Second hand cars hold their value better these days because they're so much more reliable than the old clunkers people remember so fondly.

 

[Captain Nemesis]

No reason why they shouldnt, and many do, last decades.

I wonder what the reality of replacing the batteries in a 2020 EV car in 2040 will be.

 

[ETAF]

I wonder what the reality of replacing the batteries in a 2020 EV car in 2040 will be.

I know Toyota, had a 5year warranty on Batteries and if you have the car service by them , they will extend to 10 years - BUT who knows how many different revisions and size changes may happen. Then into Sorry that Parts now obsolete etc etc
Hence my comment on full life time Carbon cost - from extracting the material out of the ground to end of life

 

[pred]

It's not just second hand cars going up in price, also motorbikes, I've been meaning to replace my 19 year old Aprilia Mille for some time now and went out and splashed out on a new Ducati Panigale V4S, to placate my partner I have also ordered the new Skoda 5 seat version of the 7 seater, we got a Honda CRV a few years ago but soon realised the boot is not big enough for two GSDs, the Kodiaq hasn't even reached the assembly line yet, I was concerned after learning there's a world shortage of chips leaving millions of cars piling up in fields, maybe someone will realise depending on China for everything ain't such a great idea...