Stock market dealing

[Arbu]

Paid heed to Shawn's advice today on AMD, Microsoft and Bitcoin:

"$AMD $175L - great Q from $SMCI and we had that great dip buy opportunity off open yday, do lets see if we are able to test those levels again. Really think it could be a monster if it gives it up early.$UBER $66L - breaking out again on the daily, I do not see anything wrong with this chart and I really like the looks especially if we dip into the $66 level.$MSFT $408L - huge move into the report tonight, again if we can catch a dip buy with a weak open, it is worth the shot. I expect a big number tonight.$COIN $138SS - watch out for a break higher if #BTC #bitcoin continues to get higher, but if we hang around 43k, I like fading into that strong level of resistance."

Bitcoin came up to 43.5 so I went long on Coinbase.


Results:

• 30/01/2024 20:30
  Spirit Airlines Inc
  +10
  651
  633
  -£180.00
• 30/01/2024 20:30
  Spirit Airlines Inc
  +10
  642
  633
  -£90.00
• 30/01/2024 20:30
  Coinbase Global Inc (All Sessions)
  +2
  13219
  13119
  -£200.00
• 30/01/2024 19:19
  Coinbase Global Inc (All Sessions)
  +1
  13236
  13112
  -£124.00
• 30/01/2024 18:49
  Microsoft Corp (All Sessions)
  +0.50
  40713
  40764
  £25.50
• 30/01/2024 17:48
  Advanced Micro Devices Inc (All Sessions)
  +0.50
  17699
  17300
  -£199.50
• 30/01/2024 17:32
  Advanced Micro Devices Inc (All Sessions)
  +0.50
  17699
  17342
  -£178.50
• 30/01/2024 16:59
  Advanced Micro Devices Inc (All Sessions)
  +1
  17718
  17657
  -£61.00
• 30/01/2024 16:46
  Coinbase Global Inc (All Sessions)
  +2
  13184
  13218
  £68.00
• 30/01/2024 16:35
  Advanced Micro Devices Inc (All Sessions)
  +1
  17616
  17728
  £112.00
• 30/01/2024 16:34
  Coinbase Global Inc (All Sessions)
  +0.50
  13291
  13196
  -£47.50
• 30/01/2024 16:32
  Microsoft Corp (All Sessions)
  +0.50
  41002
  41002
  £0.00
• 30/01/2024 16:19
  Coinbase Global Inc (All Sessions)
  +0.50
  13291
  13069
  -£111.00
• 30/01/2024 15:38
  Advanced Micro Devices Inc (All Sessions)
  +1
  17755
  17801
  £46.00
• 30/01/2024 15:28
  Coinbase Global Inc (All Sessions)
  -1
  13402
  13389
  £13.00
• 30/01/2024 15:16
  Advanced Micro Devices Inc (All Sessions)
  +1
  17733
  17748
  £15.00
• 30/01/2024 15:11
  Advanced Micro Devices Inc (All Sessions)
  +1
  17626
  17638
  £12.00
• 30/01/2024 15:00
  Microsoft Corp (All Sessions)
  +1
  41176
  40998
  -£178.00
• 30/01/2024 14:55
  Coinbase Global Inc (All Sessions)
  -1
  13265
  13227
  £38.00
• Total
  -£1,040.00

 

[Justin Passing]

Screener - just TradingView, which I don't fully use. The free one is almost the same but you only get one chart at a time.

I've been using bootleg MS Office for ever. It just fell over, so I'll pay for 365 now, because you can program your own screener in Excel.
Could copy some "Trade Ideas" ideas. Like alert if there's a pull back to support/resistance or an anchored VWAP(or MA - easier.)

Unpleasant day. started up by a few percent on $coin then gave it back and some, so lost a few £k. Tired . I didn't find anything which was covering a lot of range,
I was doing ok on Remark $MARK, but then my platform stopped all trading on it. They only like it when you lose.


Do you get the distinct feeling sometimes that the feed you have is adapted just so your trades fail? Like there have been a few dozen consistent candles then you join and it immediately wicks you out or reverses?

I found I was sub-minute scalping several times, specifically on Meta, which has a tight spread.

 

[Arbu]

Do you know of any way to set an order that only gets placed if a certain price level is hit? Say I'd like to set up an arrangement where if the price comes down to 100, I'd like to then have an order automatically set up for the case where the price then goes back up to 101? Kind of a second level order.

 

[Justin Passing]

I've read about those, but I don't have the facility. If your broker IG doesn't, I don't know who would. Obvious one to check would be Interactive Brokers , IBKR.
It's something I was thinking could be done with Excel, to Alert if a price hit a support level then started rising.
There's a surprising number of stop or limit or stop and limit order entries or exits, with varieties of trailing stops or Take Profits, and a raft of combinations - strangles, butterflies, condors etc, iron or otherwise.

I know the different options which price changes can invoke are called "legs" - something to search on.

The results which have just come out could be the trigger for something of a sell-off, particularly in Tech stocks. We can go short on everything of course, but it'll be risky to leave anything overnight.
Declarations of a market collapse may be getting louder but at the moment are premature. For most of the stocks which have taken a hit (so far) they've only lost say 5%. 5% may sound a lot to hose familiar with building society interest rates but for these beasts, that's only last' week's rise.

There are some more results due. The market seems to want huge forecasts for AI, and there aren't many examples of AI being bankable.

Microsoft is employing it in Pilot, whose name I had to struggle to remember. Not overwhelming. I won't be holding any of those stocks when the results come out, but if yoou can trade after market, look fo scalp opportunities. If they dip 10%, they'll come back either immediately or soon.

As one of the guests on TTV said, if you think there's going to be excited hopes for good earnings, buy the stock 2-3 weeks before, then sell before earnings. If only I was that organised....

 

[Arbu]

+£802 today. It's striking how I have good days and bad days. I need to figure out what is causing the difference.

 

[Justin Passing]

I went with TTV's Microsoft from the off, all in , which cleared the previous day's losses.
They missed the start price but shorting AMD, and MSFT worked.

I think you may need to look at your entries. Wait for a level it can move off. Then when the candles start to get less long watch the tips of the wicks. When one is close to a previous one, close.


Here's Tesla yesterday - a random point, coming up off VWAP which is the entry. See how the wick tips get closer. I usually close at the first two, or when they're almost the same height, which would have been a bit too early here, you could have got the top candle, but it's still a 0.5% move.
If you were using 10k with 5x leverage - or equivalent with SB, that's £250 in 6 minutes. That'll do, no need to give it a chance to go backwards.

Isn't it all annoyingly bloody obvious with hindsight!
(My Tesla spread's about 0.04 on 200 so 0.02% and those long candles are about 0.1%, so there would have been scope to scalp inside them.)

 

[Arbu]

Thanks, I'll look into what you suggest.

Question: Is it better to be calm and collected when trading, or excitable and emotional?

 

[Arbu]

-£235 today.

 

[Justin Passing]

Thanks, I'll look into what you suggest.

Question: Is it better to be calm and collected when trading, or excitable and emotional?

Ice.
Like a surgeon. Operating on a piece of meat connecting the bits together.
If you get emotional, close and walk away. Have a cup of tea and a biscuit, and reread your rules.

You've heard all this before:
You need rules. LIke do not enter uless you have confluence between at least two indicators - a level would be one, a trend would be another.
Always use Stop losses and Take-profits, but sometimes you realise the trade was hopeless so stop early.
Go only with the trend.
Make your own rules. Try them in a simulator.
If they don't work for you in a simulator , what the damn hell are you playing with real money for?
That would mean you need better rules.
Look back at your trades - what did you do wrong on the losers? Maybe nothing, but there usually is.
What did you do right on the winners? If that's also nothng, then that was a bad trade - you just guessed. Never guess. WHat you have to do is select the probabilities to be in your favour, most of the time.
You know this - I know this - we all still get it wrong too often

Ok when scalping I don't have a fast enough platform to set stops, often, but a TP is magic, it's much faster than me.
If you only go WITH the trend, you lose far less, if any, when something odd happens because you can usually wait for the next cycle.
Look back at your losses. How often would you have come out OK if you'd left it for another cycle?
When the scalping TP is hit, it often grabs the attention, and the price will usually drop back a bit, often to a point where you can go again.

That's if you're doing lots of trades. MARA performed again today, several percent altogether. That'll do. Don't need lots, though but it would pay better. That Shawn Catena made 200 trades on one stock (Micron) today. Would love to see his numbers.
His "Stciky note" trade of Tesla 184Long was spot on today, to 32 cents.
WHy he didn't go short on the way down? Didn't fit his rules, but he still got the 3.5% rise.

I had a lot of META shares. I sold them after the results came out when the price was +14%. They then went higher, but that'll do. I imagine people will pile in tomorrow they've announced that they're going to pay a dividend.
Tesla, on the other hand, I would only buy if it gets to be much cheaper.
NVIDIA is odd. The P/E ratio is far better than AMD's but AMD is going nuts.

SMCI is rumoured to maybe become the next NVIDIA. I know you traded them - did you check what they do? Interesting.

When thie earnings season is over, the big stocks will probably fall back, a lot. Much of my long term cash is in ETFS which are quite diversified so hopefully won't take such a big hit. Really, eg SMCI up 85% in 2 weeks is not sustainable.
I bought some "Jupiter India" a few days ago. It's up 4.3%. That's nuts too, long term.
Another one lost a bit, shock horror, but still up 11% in 3 months.

(Edited fro tyops]

 

[Arbu]

Ice.
Like a surgeon. Operating on a piece of meat connecting the bits together.
If you get emotional, close and walk away. Have a cup of tea and a biscuit, and reread your rules.

That's what I thought you'd say. But why, then, do they all seem so excitable on tradertv, and the one person who seems really calm, Brendan, seemingly not trade at all?

 

[Arbu]

-£345.60 today

 

[Justin Passing]

Yeah, if only they were more like Brendan. He does trade. We only hear of his successes occasionally, but it's usually when he went long or short at the start of the day and just held.
Watch Neal, especially his 'real deal' in the middle of the day.
Obi gives the impression of being thick as a brick, repeating the same phrases all day, but he makes a profit.
They usually avoid replicating each others' trades for the show. .Shawn is head honcho, and states the obvious ones if he's there, otherwise Neal does that.
Shawn is a BS merchant, yelling about his massive successes of being "a dollar in the money". Remember he might have 1000 or 50,000 shares on the move though. The biggest day trader companies have individuals making 8 figures a day - sobering.

Usually the program's prime suggestions are mostly right, though sometimes the levels are a little off or there's delay. Very rarely, they DO go the wrong way, but you can get out. Sometimes like AAPL they just don't happen.

If you watched the prog, you shouldn't have made a loss Friday. META, AMAZON, MSFT, AMD were all basically right. Got to pop now...

 

[Justin Passing]

As I was saying The "sticky note" they put out ( with a typed version) said, as at X tradertvshawn

Meta 406 Long
Amazon 166 Long
AMD 170 L
Msft 405/6 L

Just the microsoft one,
he did this:

These are his markings. It rose as he says "$5". Closing or going short when there were a couple of red candles did a bit better.
He doesn't do that but instead adds trades where the red triangles are. He scalps the candles.
He trades about 10 different shares at once, which I'm not clever enough to do. So I was only watching Meta and Msft ( and Nvidia which was quieter at the start).
I was long msft from the off and closed somewhere in that major pullback, then went back in long again at the level he predicted - where his green triangle is.

Meta was even easier. Yesterday I wrote "people will pile in tomorrow".
I had a limit order at the open which didn't fill, so I scrabbled to put a higher limit order. You daren't buy at market from the open because you'll get a price off the top end of the top wick. I don't have a sophisticated bid system on the CFD account so got a limit order fill at 450 about the green line a minute or two after the open. Maybe should have done better.

Sandy triangle is 7% rise, about $32.
SO if you bouht one share you'd be up $32
Dollar a point you'd be up $3200
Use $10k CFD at 5x you'd be up $3500.

Amazon from their prediction, rose 2.8% and AMD 2.4%
So if you'd bought two shares each of Meta, Msft, Amd, Amazon, it would have cost you around $1140 and you'd have made around $100.


My pot was split between that and a diversion from earlier.
Do you look at the UK /EU market. It's something I do in a bleary-eyed sort of way at 8 a.m. in my pj's.
Sometimes Ocado, Rolls or something else with enough liquidity (most are hopeless) will take off on good news and you can follow for a few percent. (Or jump then revert). Usually I only look at the Ftse 100 because of the liquidity, but have taken to looking at FSTE AllShare.

Superdry has featured a bit, often negatively, but on the 1st it jumped 16% before falling back. Yesterday it shot to + 10% and stayed there a few minutes so I shorted it. confident it would fall back again. But the bugger didn't, so I hastily went long, and longer, and longer waiting for a decent red candle, but there weren't any on the 5 minute chart. A quick search found a takeover is in the offing, which means a catalyst - great.
Damn thing did well over 100%. I wasn't all-in on it, but did proper ok.

The best UK screener by far that I've found is at Hargreaves Lansdowne.
It's a bit complicated:
Go to SHares, then the Heat Map
you have to have an account there to get live prices
You have to log in before 8 am
you can choose to ORDER BY name or %, but % takes a quarter hour or so to sort itself out.
You can choose FTSE100, or All shares. Go All Shares (big) and make it fit your screen. I use a laptop for that.
The Heat Map shows risers in shades of blue, so you can tell what's increasing right at the moment by how much bluer it is than it was a moment ago. If you hover over the box you get a day's chart. Try it.

 

[Arbu]

Why do you say you have to log in before 8am? What is it showing then? Or do you have to wait until 8:15 for it to sort itself out and show something (which would make sense as it then has something to show for the day's move)?

 

[Arbu]

• 05/02/2024 19:01
  Palantir Technologies Inc (All Sessions)
  +3
  1704
  1657
  -£141.00
• 05/02/2024 17:55
  Intel Corp (All Sessions)
  +2
  4304
  4291
  -£26.00
• 05/02/2024 17:00
  Rivian Automotive Inc
  -10
  1484
  1513
  -£290.00
• 05/02/2024 15:46
  Palantir Technologies Inc (All Sessions)
  +1
  1704
  1664
  -£40.00
• 05/02/2024 15:44
  Meta Platforms Inc (All Sessions)
  -0.50
  46329
  46144
  £92.50
• 05/02/2024 15:39
  Caterpillar Inc (All Sessions)
  +0.50
  32081
  31758
  -£161.50
• 05/02/2024 15:32
  Alphabet Inc - A (All Sessions)
  +1
  14478
  14399
  -£79.00
• 05/02/2024 15:31
  Intel Corp (All Sessions)
  -2
  4272
  4266
  £12.00
• 05/02/2024 15:19
  Palantir Technologies Inc (All Sessions)
  +1
  1704
  1671
  -£33.00
• 05/02/2024 15:11
  Caterpillar Inc (All Sessions)
  -0.50
  32800
  32216
  £292.00
• 05/02/2024 14:46
  Palantir Technologies Inc (All Sessions)
  -5
  1742
  1730
  £60.00
• Total
  -£314.00