Stock market dealing

[Justin Passing]

Oh.
Size down. man.
I took nothing in the UK - no catalyst knowledge, sludgy performance, lousy spreads. Sometimes something is grabbable. You can usually range trade something, or the odd breakout but I don't spend time on it after the open, as a rule.

Well, I feel a bit bad, now. Hopefully one day TTV will do well for you, like it did for me today.

I was cross with TTV because all except Baba was wrong up front so I faffed around with COIN which was going ok, then on the show someone mentioned HOLO. It was already up a lot when I tried a bit, then more, and more, then all in until I hit the platform limit. Finger was hovering over the close button all day and I swallowed hard a couple of times, finally hitting it right at 9.
Completely bloody exhausting. That was a meaningful day. I can't quite believe it. It went higher in after market, I believe.
If you're feeling down, don't look at the HOLO number for the day. If you're not, you already know the CFD multiple is 5 and what the pot is, add a few % x5 on the pot, from Coin..



The leveraged ETPs are ok when you're pretty sure the trend will go on so at the mo I'm "saving" into FANG3, NVD3 and ARM3. I dip into qqq5 and keep India3, which, usefully, isn't any FAANG stocks, but it did well recently.


I'll look at a couple of your trades

 

[Justin Passing]

Rightoe:

07/02/2024 15:04
Ford Motor Co (All Sessions)
+5
1255.3
1220.8
-£172.50

This is a 1 minute from TradingView

So your trade was to go LONG at green and close at red, the path of the dotty line.

On the 1 minute (now too late for my platform to show that) EDIT - added the TV one
There is a small retracement about where you entered, but the first candle where it didn't happen should have told you to get out of the long - and maybe go short.
I can make a 150 EMA cross about there but there , but that's not enough for a total turnaround on what was going on. Sometimes things bounce off the SMA's but not all that often. If it does do it, you can guess it'll maybe keep doing it.

Look at the wicks on the candles - a long one often means a reversal like the two I indicated.
There isn't a particularly long one at the bottom of the tall green candle.
I would never have thought the price might rise from there, especially after that tall red candle - cut your loss and quit.
GTFO (Get the funds out)

React, don't anticipate, unless you're in a channel bouncing off the levels.

---------------------------------------

Then there were three ROBLOX LONGS which cost £250 ish expecting the trend to reverse somewhere along that downward path

I see no reason whatsoever to suggest that it might reverse.
I've put in a VWAP 70, which is where the anchored one would have been atthat time, which might have predicted it, but it didn't.
It'sa popular error, to think that you're going to be clairvoyant enough to pick a bottom candle out of nothing. Why should that be so, though?
If you're in a region to expect a reversal like for a pullback from the off, and the slowing candle pattern suggests it and the levels are there and a long wick - you can still be wrong. Is it worth the risk? Maybe there, yes, , but not in the middle of nowhere.
GO WITH THE TREND, it's your FRIEND.

After the high point which was half expected but not very obvious, there were three red candles, two with wicks below about the same length, so not indicating much. Then after a pause of 3 blues, it carried on down again. I'd have decided there somewhere that a short could be right. The wicks were on many of the candles, so I wouldn't have predicted a reversal - until it was confirmed. So somewhere about the greeny circle I'd probably have gone long.

Three Long openings in succession suggests you might be "revenge trading - never a good idea!

There'sa youtuber called "the MOving Average" who covers this sort of stuff well. He said that many of his students were over-keen to try to pick a reversal.

SO
1) Go with the Trend, not against it
nnParticipate don't anticipate
2) Wait for an Entry point - which is usually going to be a pullback
3) Risk management - don't allow a loss to continue if you aren't comfortable risking that amount of money. Sometimes you can say from a chart analysis point pf view that the stop loss can go at the previous resistance or support level, but I'd suggest you CLOSE and wait for the TREND to re-establish.
Waiting for the confirmation of the direction will lose you an amount of the move, but I suggest you might be happy to gain a bit less, than keep losing.

What the TTV guys do, when they have a GOOD entry point is start with more money then "take out" say a third then a third then the rest, as it move saway from that good position. especially Makes sense if you don't know where your "Out" will be.


The pills are starting to work, about to faceplant...

 

[Odds]

"React, don't anticipate, unless you're in a channel bouncing off the levels."

I'd have thought an element of anticipation would be helpful through analysis of previous trends over a similar period of time?
If all you're doing is reacting to movements in the market then i'd think you're behind the curve and at risk of losing money, especially during a period of fast trading.

 

[Arbu]

Rightoe:

View attachment 332277
This is a 1 minute from TradingView
View attachment 332278


So your trade was to go LONG at green and close at red, the path of the dotty line.

On the 1 minute (now too late for my platform to show that) EDIT - added the TV one
There is a small retracement about where you entered, but the first candle where it didn't happen should have told you to get out of the long - and maybe go short.
I can make a 150 EMA cross about there but there , but that's not enough for a total turnaround on what was going on. Sometimes things bounce off the SMA's but not all that often. If it does do it, you can guess it'll maybe keep doing it.

Look at the wicks on the candles - a long one often means a reversal like the two I indicated.
There isn't a particularly long one at the bottom of the tall green candle.
I would never have thought the price might rise from there, especially after that tall red candle - cut your loss and quit.
GTFO (Get the funds out)

React, don't anticipate, unless you're in a channel bouncing off the levels.

---------------------------------------

Then there were three ROBLOX LONGS which cost £250 ish expecting the trend to reverse somewhere along that downward path

View attachment 332280

I see no reason whatsoever to suggest that it might reverse.
I've put in a VWAP 70, which is where the anchored one would have been atthat time, which might have predicted it, but it didn't.
It'sa popular error, to think that you're going to be clairvoyant enough to pick a bottom candle out of nothing. Why should that be so, though?
If you're in a region to expect a reversal like for a pullback from the off, and the slowing candle pattern suggests it and the levels are there and a long wick - you can still be wrong. Is it worth the risk? Maybe there, yes, , but not in the middle of nowhere.
GO WITH THE TREND, it's your FRIEND.

After the high point which was half expected but not very obvious, there were three red candles, two with wicks below about the same length, so not indicating much. Then after a pause of 3 blues, it carried on down again. I'd have decided there somewhere that a short could be right. The wicks were on many of the candles, so I wouldn't have predicted a reversal - until it was confirmed. So somewhere about the greeny circle I'd probably have gone long.

Three Long openings in succession suggests you might be "revenge trading - never a good idea!

There'sa youtuber called "the MOving Average" who covers this sort of stuff well. He said that many of his students were over-keen to try to pick a reversal.

SO
1) Go with the Trend, not against it
nnParticipate don't anticipate
2) Wait for an Entry point - which is usually going to be a pullback
3) Risk management - don't allow a loss to continue if you aren't comfortable risking that amount of money. Sometimes you can say from a chart analysis point pf view that the stop loss can go at the previous resistance or support level, but I'd suggest you CLOSE and wait for the TREND to re-establish.
Waiting for the confirmation of the direction will lose you an amount of the move, but I suggest you might be happy to gain a bit less, than keep losing.

What the TTV guys do, when they have a GOOD entry point is start with more money then "take out" say a third then a third then the rest, as it move saway from that good position. especially Makes sense if you don't know where your "Out" will be.


The pills are starting to work, about to faceplant...

Thanks for all your input. Well, as I said, I was trying to follow the traders on tradingtv as closely as possible. 12.5L was on the sticky for Ford. It had gone there, and then two green candlesticks suggested a reversal of the downward move.

With Roblox I think Neil said he was buying at that moment, so I did. This was a pullback from the earlier trend, plus there were long downward wicks on the preceding red candles which, as you said for Ford, suggests a reversal.

 

[Justin Passing]

"React, don't anticipate, unless you're in a channel bouncing off the levels."

I'd have thought an element of anticipation would be helpful through analysis of previous trends over a similar period of time?
If all you're doing is reacting to movements in the market then i'd think you're behind the curve and at risk of losing money, especially during a period of fast trading.

Well, yes and no! All the time one is working from patterns of behaviour, may aspect sof which I have mentioned.
So the thing is to be ready for what you expect. A wave gong up a beach always turns round, and you could be pretty accurate pushing a stick into the sand at the point it's going to reach. You could win from your prediction even though you'd always be wrong by a bit.
When the price is in a "range" between two levels, you DO predict. I'll grab a screenshot when I see one. Doing that's you tend to be more right than wrong, which is fine - a losing trade is just "part of the cost of doing business" to quote the normal mantra.

Swing trading is very profitable, once you know how . Look at any ordinary stock and you see the price goes up and down - I posted GE weeks ago. Marks and Sparks is another one. YOu buy when it has stopped going lower, and sell when it has stopped rising. You can wait for a small reversal if you want.

Burt what you do not do is make random guesses that a stock is going to reverse for no particular reason. You'll be wrong almost always.
As I've said, what you're looking for is "confluence" or more than one indication.

 

[Justin Passing]

Thanks for all your input. Well, as I said, I was trying to follow the traders on tradingtv as closely as possible. 12.5L was on the sticky for Ford. It had gone there, and then two green candlesticks suggested a reversal of the downward move.

With Roblox I think Neil said he was buying at that moment, so I did. This was a pullback from the earlier trend, plus there were long downward wicks on the preceding red candles which, as you said for Ford, suggests a reversal.

They just about always mean from LEVELS, unless there's a catalyst which just means push in one direction.
As I said, if they say 80L and the price is 90, do nothing. Wait for the price to drop to 80 and expect it to go back up. It might not - but if it does that'll have confluence with previous behaviour added to whatever's going on today so the probablility is more on your side.

If it goes up from 80 and reverses at 90 I tend to close, whereas those on TTV tend to have reduced the amount of shares in the trade so just wait it out.

 

[Arbu]

Hi, do you understand what the green, purple and red triangles on the trading tv's trader's charts mean?

 

[Arbu]

Better today apart from one disastrous trade at the start:

• 08/02/2024 20:55
  Palantir Technologies Inc (All Sessions)
  -1
  2483
  2463
  £20.00
• 08/02/2024 20:55
  Palantir Technologies Inc (All Sessions)
  -1
  2483
  2461
  £22.00
• 08/02/2024 17:31
  Snap Inc (All Sessions)
  -1
  1127.9
  1115.1
  £12.80
• 08/02/2024 16:56
  Tesla Motors Inc (All Sessions)
  -0.50
  19075
  19087
  -£6.00
• 08/02/2024 16:39
  PayPal Holdings Inc (All Sessions)
  +1
  5625
  5588
  -£37.00
• 08/02/2024 16:37
  Tesla Motors Inc (All Sessions)
  -0.50
  19087
  19165
  -£39.00
• 08/02/2024 16:21
  Spirit Airlines Inc
  +5
  703.1
  712.9
  £49.00
• 08/02/2024 16:02
  PayPal Holdings Inc (All Sessions)
  +1
  5686
  5651
  -£35.00
• 08/02/2024 15:50
  Palantir Technologies Inc (All Sessions)
  +1
  2370
  2340
  -£30.00
• 08/02/2024 15:37
  Walt Disney Co (All Sessions)
  -0.50
  10849
  10915
  -£33.00
• 08/02/2024 15:25
  Palantir Technologies Inc (All Sessions)
  -1
  2441
  2397
  £44.00
• 08/02/2024 15:16
  Advanced Micro Devices Inc (All Sessions)
  -0.50
  17159
  17003
  £78.00
• 08/02/2024 14:54
  Advanced Micro Devices Inc (All Sessions)
  +0.50
  16981
  17071
  £45.00
• 08/02/2024 14:52
  Spirit Airlines Inc
  -10
  713.9
  734.1
  -£202.00
• 08/02/2024 08:31
  British American Tobacco PLC (LSE)
  -1
  2443.6
  2449.4
  -£5.80
• Total
  -£117.00

 

[Justin Passing]

You know the stock I look at. - about 3 from TTV, oil, gas, crypto- Mara usually.
Yesterday's heroes are always worth a look. I ignored HOLO, though it did well.

ARM was mad yesterday and rose even in premarket so I started there. It flew up for half an hour, Oil took off relatively speaking, then Mara .
Oil is 10:1 but wasn't moving fast enough.
Arm was shooting up - you have to check the % because they all look the same. Went 20% in the half hour which at 5x was doublin da money.
Mara whole day was 17%, x 5 =75 of which I used some, since about 3pm..

Look at the numbers. Clear you head of what you're doing now. You know what Einstein said about doing the same day after day expecting a different outcome?

Look:, Mara
These are 15 minute candles - you have to zoom out. If you only use 1 minute you see all sorts of wobbles.
Obviously you'd flick between the two, and prob add a 5 min.

You could sell when you're in red territory but it wouldn't make much difference - check your own chart.
With these stocks you can have a live bitcoin price up somewhere which gives a good bit of a guide, at least for confidence.
The direction, therefore, was 90% certain - up, as bitcoin moved at night.

So you might get in at 18.5, 3 minutes in. The direction is confirmed, quite soon, though the first minutes can be mad.
Say $19.
End of day $21:57.
That's 13.5%. or 2.57 bucks.
I don't do SB so I'm not sure what you could use. You can work up as the day goes, so as to cover any potential loss.
Above you use 10 bucks per point , right?
Assuming that on Mara that's $2570 profit. I don't know what margin you'd need.
Do you get guaranteed stop losses?


That Spirit trade: You entered around a reasonable point but you went short when the stock was just starting to RISE, then HELD it. Stoppit!
Given your experiences, go WITH the trend, not against it. Fewer trades, but safer ones. GTFO when you start losing. What was your catalyst???? There wasn't one? Wrong stock. Also not very liquid, so again, wrong stock.
Did you download and digest the TTV daily free market assessment? Do that, then see which of the sticky notes' assessments you agree with.

 

[Justin Passing]

Hi, do you understand what the green, purple and red triangles on the trading tv's trader's charts mean?

If I have it right, Purple is Short, Red is Long and Green is close - or "cover" they often say.
Aye, that took me a while to work out, because one day they'll go short inside every candle on the way up (daft imo), and another they'll go long every candle.

 

[Justin Passing]

Crappy day today. bits on MSFT and NVDA TSLA etc but ugh.
Dammit forgot to look at Affirm.


+ paloalto, AMAT
Rearranging the trillions I have in ETFs long term.

Jupiter India is 55% on the year and fine recently, but the Indian Stocks aren't doing that well.. Delay? Hmmm

 

[Justin Passing]

Bitcoin stocks to the rescue....

 

[Arbu]

Better day today

• 09/02/2024 17:32
  Marathon Digital Holdings Inc
  +2
  2287
  2335
  £96.00
• 09/02/2024 17:31
  Expedia Group Inc
  -0.30
  13139
  12978
  £48.30
• 09/02/2024 17:28
  Apple Inc (All Sessions)
  -1
  18976
  18928
  £48.00
• 09/02/2024 17:26
  Marathon Digital Holdings Inc
  +1
  2287
  2351
  £64.00
• 09/02/2024 17:26
  Apple Inc (All Sessions)
  -1
  18976
  18928
  £48.00
• 09/02/2024 17:20
  Expedia Group Inc
  -0.20
  13139
  12954
  £37.00
• 09/02/2024 17:16
  Expedia Group Inc
  -0.50
  13139
  12916
  £111.50
• 09/02/2024 15:56
  Microsoft Corp (All Sessions)
  +0.30
  41594
  41833
  £71.70
• 09/02/2024 15:56
  Cloudflare Inc
  +1
  11103
  10969
  -£134.00
• 09/02/2024 15:54
  Microsoft Corp (All Sessions)
  +0.10
  41594
  41851
  £25.70
• 09/02/2024 15:46
  Microsoft Corp (All Sessions)
  +0.10
  41594
  41884
  £29.00
• 09/02/2024 15:43
  Rivian Automotive Inc
  +3
  1671
  1654
  -£51.00
• 09/02/2024 15:38
  Marathon Digital Holdings Inc
  +3
  2306
  2299
  -£21.00
• Total
  £373.20

 

[Justin Passing]

10 & 3, well done!

 

[Justin Passing]

I don't know if you look back at your own trades - I try to, mine for the unfortunate ones.
I looked at one of yours. You may well have seen the same thing, in hindsight.
Your trade here went long, ie expecting the price to go in the direction of the arrow, but it went green to red.
I don't know the time where you entered, only the level:

Now we can see that the price was going down to a pre-established level, around the thin white line, and the entry turned out to be premature.
I think that was largely bad luck.
Assuming you didn't enter opon a red candle, (ie the arrow should be 4 dots to the right) I guess ou could have got out earlier.

Again, though, you were betting on a counter-trend play. The price was falling and you anticipated where it was going to turn. Taking onboard Odds' comments above, wait in anticipation don't act in anticipation!
Goimg short wold have been with the trend. If you go with the trend and F it up, you can expect to get away with most of it if you wait. Here the downtrend didn't continue, but it went sideways which could have got you out even, after a mistake.

Do you watch Neal's little mid day Real Deal topics. He did a very good one a day or two ago which was called something about patience. It's particularly good, I recommend it. It's not just about patience but also about his analysis of what the candles are doing at a couple of points. Good guy, Neal.

. I quite often watch him two or three times, because the language he uses can be hard to work out. The red glasses help with eye strain, apparently.
SC continues to annoy. He tells all what he's done when it's too late for anyone to copy him then says "I gave you that trade". He needs someone to call him out!