Stock market dealing

[Justin Passing]

I'm hoping/expecting that now we all more or less know where the interest rates in US/EU/Japan are going, things will settle down again.

I haven't been in the game long enough to learn to use FX variations. A 5% move was a bit of a surprise.

My savings are in a Chase saver at 4.85%. Is that a savings platform?

NOt in the way I meant. I have some in there too, in a current account which pays interest, and a fixed term thing. They're a nice traditional Co with people who speak English and good rates. (Bit worrying though when they got caught with delinquent car loans).
We're both mad though, doing that. I mean, 4.85% is bonkers.

I guess I'm promoting Hargreaves L, though their fees are a bit high. They have a lot of positives, though. They have "Actives Savings" which is ok for easy access, then the range of platforms. I have a lot of ISA there. They have a non ISA invest account which I imagine is the same apart from the ISA cover. You can pick stocks and etfs. £12 to trade is enough to make you be sure it's right...
I've shown this before. Blue line is money market where you'll get about the same as a bldg soc (5.2% currently) and the orange a corporate bond.
You can look in their ETF screener to find things like that.
It's surprising how reticent we all are to use something like that. One chap I told, who has significant amounts in bldg socs, objected that he'd have to buy at the top, because he'd been told he should buy only on a dip. Saints preserve us...
I said "well if you have 500k in it, which you could (he could) you'd have 600k by Christmas". I had exaggerated on purpose. "Oh no it would only be about 550k", he said. Me "Yes you're right, you would expect around 550k". He was happy that he'd been right. so I said "compared with 520k in your building society". Pause. 30k more, then. He said he'd look at it. Sigh.

6 months: 12 months makes the lines too feint. You can use this charting - no need to log in.

You can see whay, as I said, I've been using Real Estate (yellow) for a while.
Spy Brown might come back, we'll see.

India's election was June, I panicked and sold but am back in now.

Being a general account you can have stocks or ETFs in there.
Here's exactly the same chart but with NVD3 added for the last week.

 

[Arbu]

You keep saying "See how you could have done with your money invested in some leveraged nvidia product." But it's not really a very helpful observation is it? Why not put up a chart showing your % return on nvidia the week before the chart you show? It would look terrible.

The rates on the HL active savings for cash are all less than I am getting with Chase. Should I put all my cash into HL and pick stocks and bonds to invest there? Hardly, if I'm losing money at IG, and the fees are possibly higher at HL.

 

[Justin Passing]

Why not put up a chart showing your % return on nvidia the week before the chart you show? It would look terrible.

Because you would be holding it then - I wasn't.

I dip in and out of things like NVD3, though as I said I have held it for weeks. (not right now).. Funds platforms are too slow, you need to hold some cash to be able to use them. I didn't have NVD3 at the time of that chart. I use a daytrading ISA platform for NVD3.
There may be opportunities to use it this week, but we aren't at a time when I think it would be a reasonable plan to hold it regardless.
What the chart does show, is how an investment of say 6% which looks good and sensible, gets overwhelmed by a short - term grab. Usually things like NVIDIA run for a day, or a good chunk of a day. Like MARA and the rest when they're on the up. Those aren't quite so reliable recently.

Yes obviously lots of old rates are better than current rates.
There's not much point comparing with "what you are getting now".
CURRENTLY its's 4.7% at Close and 4.67% at HL. It would be tidier to switch between platforms at one place, obviously. The point I was making was that the rates you and I are getting at Close (even the older rates we have) are awful compared with what's available on the SM or fund market. I've been holding some real estate for weeks, and it's earned more than it would in a year in a cash account. I doubt the real estate index will crash overnight. Those corporate bonds running at 20% plus aren't likely to, either.
Yes HL share purchase fees are high at £12, but in an ISA fund switches are free. Obviously it takes time to accumulate ISA funds but after a few years it's well into 6 figs.
On larger amounts, £12 is invisible. Holding fees have a cap.
See what I mean now?

For this week, Japan has started down. UK property is up. Tech might recover so I have some cash waiting.
I'm selling a couple of things which are only returning 8-12% pa, or less.
RE will stay for a while, (Vanguard RE Index and Euro RE are strong, + SABRA atthe mo)) and some in the better Corp B's. The SPy could be OK for a while. There is a SPYx5.
India is still a big part of what I have. It is carrying on at a good rate, though from week to week it has been choppy.
Foxtons has jumped in the past on good news so I'll look at that..
NAIL is wild, buying the dips.
I've had some WIckes, Tesco and Sainbury for a while, though they went flat. I'm actively watching those so sold near the high (I miss a lot) but they may pick up again.
I used to hold a lot of GE. It went flat but it would be nice it if started off again. With GEV, LLY , PLTR some software cos. Discount stores and the mag 7 it's a lot to watch. UK at 8am, US 9am on, midday, 1pm onwards, 2:30. US stocks often reverse at around 4-4:30 pm.
Cannabis and bitcoin, too. Cannabis is politically sensitive. Miracle Grow goes with it.
There's no pont holding everything, I'd prefer to hold no more than about 5 things. I have too much doing almost nothing.

 

[Arbu]

Obviously it takes time to accumulate ISA funds but after a few years it's well into 6 figs.

Yeah, right. I had 4 figs in a pension in Fidelity Index World P and L&G Global Emerging Mkts Idx C Acc from 13th June to 6th September this year. Each down about 1.5% over that time. Only worth doing because I got the tax rebate on it.

 

[Arbu]

My cable short over the weekend didn't do very well, although nvidia looks better. I still think people are a bit overexcited about the rate decision, so I've sold gold, and bought Rentokil (a lot of its revenue is from the USA and it has room for a bounce). Might close all three out before the rate decision.

 

[Justin Passing]

WHaddaya mean "yeah right"? They've been going about 20 years!
I don't think I've ever seen emerging markets doing much.
We had some pensions in "safe" funds which went backwards. That's what started me trading, I was annoyed at their attitude.
Why did you watch yours go down though?!

I've been bangin on about the upper corporate bond here for a while. The lower one is the sector average or something.
India's about as fast, gold has been faster though I haven't put much in it, & real estate has been faster.

About the best of the bunch of RE fnds at the mo is Abrdn Global RE Sh inst Acc, blue
which is running at 3.5% over the past week. It won't last forever... UK Europe and World RE funds are all at slightly different stages.

Plenty of choice
top ones are Real Estate,
purple smooth one is that bond, bottom one is Tech, which is rising fastest right now.
Grey is India.
Added gold - the yellow at the top

I don't know why "Real Estate" beats property prices, but it does. People might switch out of gold so I don't trust it, but I doubt RE would collapse as quickly - we'll see!.

Those who held on for dear life In the Index - the S & P 500 for that 3 month period, are rewarded with a return of 0.1%

 

[Arbu]

WHaddaya mean "yeah right"? They've been going about 20 years!
I don't think I've ever seen emerging markets doing much.
We had some pensions in "safe" funds which went backwards. That's what started me trading, I was annoyed at their attitude.
Why did you watch yours go down though?!

If you've got £10,000 to put into an ISA, it won't be in six figures in a few years.
I didn't watch my funds go down. I didn't watch them at all. I had a lot of other things to do.

 

[Justin Passing]

If you've got £10,000 to put into an ISA, it won't be in six figures in a few years.

A fiver wouldn't either, ....

I didn't watch them at all. I had a lot of other things to do.

That's not the Isa's fault or the market's, though, is it?
I just checked mine - took 23 seconds. You need it on your phone.

 

[Justin Passing]

Crazy times right now. It's always a bad time of year so just take the 20% pa sort of bond. Gold is doing well but could stop an drop any time. India continues to be choppy but generally up at a decent rate.
Bitcoin risings have made day trading OK , but not very often.

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Discovered something I didn't know existed: There are WisdomTree leveraged currency pair funds, 3x ( a few 5x) leveraged.
They don't have a swap fee like normal FX so if the dollar is weakening and devaluing your shares, you could buy some long GBP/Short USD x3 atthe same time. In fact some of them move several percent a week, so they're decent short term investment vehicles anyway.

 

[Justin Passing]

It's all getting messy now, with the previous trends mostly absent.
Investments in housebuilders had to be smartly sold. That's odd when there are interest rates and politics supporting them.
India remains quite good, but recently (3 months) around the same growth as a B grade, corporate bond, growing around 5-6% over the period.. They were higher at about 28% pa. There are still Convertible bonds, with growth + divi in the 20's..
The S&P 500 is down a percent or two, over the past 3 months, So other than trading when I feel like it, bonds will do. We still have a couple of funds (small pensions) to move, there are too many bad instititions. YOu need a very good range of funds to choose from.

It's still easy enough to get advice as before, on stocks likely to move a few % in a day, so I do that in S&S ISAs and a day trading platform. Yesterday it was Natural Gas, predicted by a guy who only looks at chart patterns, nothing about supply and demand. It rose about 7%.. Today the news was about NVIDIA, so that was about 5%.
Tomorrow could be a pivot. Micron, who make mostly memory chips, is reporting. The market will typically find fault and the stock will drop. Fragility is such that it could take some big semiconductor/tech names down with it.

@Arbu, are you still dabbling? Alibaba should be good for a decent short, if so.

 

[Notch7]

I think this thread is 2 people losing money whilst claiming they are doing great.

Neither of you have stated how much you’ve invested and how much your portfolio is worth now.

It’s like gamblers….always remember the wins, gloss over the losses

 

[kingandy2nd]

I’m following along, reading and trying to learn. I find it interesting.

 

[Justin Passing]

Oh, there you are Mrs Ten Names / Doubtfire / Pat Ex.!

I think this thread is 2 people losing money whilst claiming they are doing great.

Well that's not true - Arbu often bemoans his losses.
I'm not losing overall, though there are some losses as mentioned in my post above yours. That was about 2% of the money I had in that sector, which had risen several %, See the yellow line. on #706

Neither of you have stated how much you’ve invested and how much your portfolio is worth now.

@Arbu often posts parts of his daily results
I started with £20k and posted pictures of the banked amounts I'd put away, early in the thread.
The rate of growth since is comparable. It has as I said, slowed down for several reasons.
Having said that, nodody trades their entire portfolio.

It’s like gamblers….always remember the wins, gloss over the losses

If you did what I suggested in my previous post, you would be gettng returns 2 to 5 times those in a building society. Zero losses, accepting a half percent or so jiggle in the line.

I don't mind some risk, which asserts that there are some losses, in order to do better overall. Otherwise why continue?
It's encapsulated in the old phrase, "You have to speculate to accumulate".

It's like running a shop. You "Gamble" on getting stock, willing to take the risk that you'll be able to make a profit, accepting that some of it will be damaged or stolen or go off.

If you are Mrs 10 names and use your only knowledge input, Google, you will be able to find for yourself that even the S&P 500 has just hit its 41st high for this year.
You will also find that if you'd used the funds I've been bangin on about over the past 3 months (and shown graphs for in #706), while the S&P has done nothing much, you'd be 6-10% better off over that period alone.

Looking forward, US rates have a way to go, down, That should put stocks up in the 6 month or so term, with fluctuations depending on employment and inflation numbers which could tip things over. Either president could make a difference, but traditionally not much.
5700 to 6000 for the S&P by year end, they say. Though that 5% is no better than bonds can get you, there would be opportunuties in there with the stocks which individually, generally outperform. In case that doesn't pan out, sell everything at a 1 - 2% drop and transfer to 10+%pa bonds until things change. Simples.


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That's a better answer than the "take the p while getting it all wrong" post, deserves.
I will repeat though, that if you just get a brokerage account and "have a go" in an ill considered way, you will indeed mostly make losses.

 

[Arbu]

The funny thing is, I do actually make money gambling on sports. Bookies are always closing my accounts down. That's what draws me to this. My sports betting is just arbitraging, not based on any knowledge of the sports in question. But with the financial markets I don't have arbitrage opportunities, so I end up trading based on fundamentals. And it doesn't work. And it seems to me that that's how people make money on the financial markets - not on forming an educated assessment based on all the relevant factors, but on testing and testing for numerical patterns that repeat in the markets. It must be very computationally intensive, and also very boring.

What are these 10+% bonds anyway?

 

[Justin Passing]

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(duplicate)