Stock market dealing

[Justin Passing]

Bulls; bears, and queasy camels: whatever next?

You may be surprised. I could show you an iron butterfly with one leg in a hedge. Or the condor or albatross option of course. Just give me 6 months to understand them....

 

[Justin Passing]

Not sure if your previous post should have had a picture/ chart on it.

It didn't at first but it has now.

TradingView's charts are complex. Their screener is good though. There are lots of "filters" you can set, like Market Cap(italisation) which is how big the company is. Middle upwards is free of problems the tiddlers can have.
Finviz trader is possibly clearer.

Candles show the price movement range within the minute, hour or whatever. Just use the line, or mountain. That shows the middle price.
You can learn candle patterns which help indicate what's happening but they only help sometimes.

Trends are by far the most important to realise exist:

WIthin the red lines, you can see a trend up.
In the wiggly "wave" there are highs and lows which more or less hit the red lines.
An uptrend is a series of higher highs, and higher lows, in a more or less constant direction.
Sellers make the price go down, buyers up.
When the price drops to the support line, someone (or a bot) decides that's cheap enough so buys, which pushes the price up.
Bots etc then see a rising price and that's how you make profits, so they buy, forcing the price up, knowing there will be an upper limit, at the "resistance" line.
That's where everyone takes a profit and the price falls.
At the top you can "go short" which is how you make a profit in a price fall.

So your day trader sits there, buying near the support and selling (and/or going short) near the resistance.

If you only "go with the trend" it's safer; you only buy at the bottom (support) . Then if you miss the crest of a wave, the trend is on your side, it may jolt a bit but is likely to carry on up sooner or later..

If you "went short" near where the upper red arrow is pointing and the price jolted UP, you would lose, and it's more likely to carry on up, against you. "The trend is your friend".

Going short is something to get your head round. The price is £100 and you think it'll go to 90.
What Going Short means is you effectively Borrow shares at 100 and immediately sell them at 100. You have £100.
When the price has dropped to 90, you decide to return the shares you borrowed.
So you buy shares at £90, and hand them back, making £10 on each share.
You only have to click "sell" at 100 and when the price has dropped click "close". You don't get involved in the background borrowing stuff.

I go short as often as long in day trading, but not overnight.

The time period in question is key in all this. within that trend, there are smaller wiggles up and down. People trade on those as well. So you have down trends within an overall up trend. You need to plan where you're going to get out - that defines which trend is relevant to you.

All these patterns are "fractal" which means they're present at all time scales.
The pic I posted there is several years from side to side.
If it didn't say, you wouldn't be able to tell, it could be a few minutes.

This illustrates the power of chart analysis (aka technical analysis). You would think external events would control the prices all the time, but they are far from the most important affector in the longer term.

The video above takes the P out of the "cup and handle" pattern. Gold has been in one for years, and it's now rising on the "handle".. as predicted by someone I quoted in this thread many months ago.
Bitcoin is doing the same, period of weeks/months. It's bonkers, but it's what happens, time and time again.

 

[kingandy2nd]

Thank you for taking the time to give me that explanation JP, it’s very helpful.

 

[Justin Passing]

@kingandy2nd as you've got TradingView, you might find this interesting.
You can do a lot on TV free version. I have a paid one but mostly it just lets you watch more charts on one tab.

Exposition: Pinescript is a simple programming tool you can use to work with stock proces, It's free with TV.. You can get it to send you Alerts, or Trade for you, even. The example they cite is particularly apposite. The world is wondering how to monetise AI.
Some companies are getting on with it. You might think ,"Oh, Microsoft", but they're a bit of a laggard at the moment.
Packaged Software will be a biggie. Look atthe results for those companies on the right hand side of the example results, like Palentir $PLTR, . Look at their results (too extended right now, don't buy here) . You can do the same straight from the screener but you have to click more things .

Industry Group Strength — Indicator by Amphibiantrading — TradingView

The Industry Group Strength indicator is designed to help traders identify the best-performing stocks within specific industry groups. The movement of individual stocks is often closely tied to the overall performance of their industry. By focusing on industry groups, this indicator allows you...

www.tradingview.com

I'm current;ly looking at programs which will trade for me. Some are free, some are very expensive - I can write my own. I know a guy who's getting 34% pa on a "flat" stock, without any interaction. A pretty good start..
Before long MANY of us will have computers and phones trading for us, and those people will have large amounts of money. Nobody available to mow the lawn, because they all have the app... Then it'll be software wars.

Anything I can describe to you in post such as #733 and#737 is p155 easy to program.. I don't know where it's all going to end.
Forex is the easiest to trade, you don't have to know a damn thing, you just let the computer do it. Tell Rachel Reeves.

"Forex is the most liquid and heavily traded market on the planet, outstripping all other markets with an average trading volume of $7.51 trillion ($7,510,000,000,000) per day. Several factors contribute to this unrivaled turnover, starting with the fact the forex market is open 24 hours a day, 5 days a week. Additionally, currency pairs are traded over the counter, which means most transactions take place on electronic networks or over the telephone between brokers, banks, retail traders, and other market participants."

 

[Arbu]

The odds on Trump winning the election have shortened sharply over the last week without any improvement in the polls for him. It seems like someone has a lot of money to put on it, maybe hoping to influence the result. And if they're prepared to do that, why not put some money into DWT as well. I think I'll buy some of that until the election. Also seems to be a cup and handle pattern forming since mid July.

 

[Justin Passing]

You meant $DJT ? I've dipped in and out of that as it's nicely volatile.

Cup and handle is showing on Bitcoin - the Technical Analysis patterns predict it going to $320. That may be a bit high.

Market's a bit aimless, with a sort of latent optimism, at the moment.
The bond I use is flat compared to tech, financials, gold or the SPY500 now so I'm using the steeper ones, but will be happy to drop back if things look choppy.
Bond is red, running at 16% now. Yellow, hard to see, the top one, is Gold spot. I have enough gold shares for just one standard bar. It would be quite nice to hold, and stroke, and that. SPY is blue. Tech and financialgrey, purple, Real estate green. Utilities would be high but this chart only does funds and there in't one.
There is a gold x3 though.

 

[Notch7]

The odds on Trump winning the election have shortened sharply over the last week without any improvement in the polls for him. It seems like someone has a lot of money to put on it, maybe hoping to influence the result. And if they're prepared to do that, why not put some money into DWT as well. I think I'll buy some of that until the election. Also seems to be a cup and handle pattern forming since mid July.

Trumps poll rating has improved a tiny bit, but I am surprised by the betting odds.

 

[Arbu]

Yes, Trump Media and Technology Group

 

[Justin Passing]

Yes, Trump Media and Technology Group

Used him a bit today.
General Motors early for ~5% and Joby later for ~10. Both on premarket/ news. Joby via TradingTV Benzinga..
The "small nuclears" are worth watching - SMR, NNE NEE OKLO and IONQ ..... iirc.
ISA using 3x Gold, switched to 3ION got about 9% iirc. Will try 3ION again, it went 22% altogether. Latter is Quantum C, so wll look at QBIT or whatever..

 

[Arbu]

Forex is the easiest to trade, you don't have to know a damn thing, you just let the computer do it.

No idea what this is supposed to mean. I'm sure there are thousands of people wanting to sell me algorithms to do it, few if any of which work. But I'll go long cable today and see if I can refine my strategy over time. Let's see what happens.

Edit: getting in early on SNAP, mentioned in TraderTV email.

 

[Arbu]

• 23/10/2024 19:46
  Snap Inc (All Sessions)
  +2
  1025
  1012
  -£26.00
• 23/10/2024 19:46
  GBP/USD
  +1
  12983.8
  12917.7
  -£66.10
  Total
  -£92.10
• 
  
• Today's forex trade was indeed easy, all I had to do was ask ChatGPT. Maybe there's some way to get it to trade for you automatically, I don't know.
• 
  
• "For a potential forex trade today, you could consider a long GBP/USD position. Here's why:
  
  1. USD Weakness Potential: The U.S. dollar is currently strong, but with upcoming economic data releases (like non-farm payrolls) and continued expectations of further Fed rate cuts, there could be downward pressure on the dollar if the data shows signs of economic weakening
     XE
     United States - English
     .
     
     
  2. BoE Stance: The British pound may benefit from the Bank of England's relatively hawkish stance on keeping interest rates high for longer due to persistent inflation. Despite some volatility, analysts suggest the pound could strengthen, particularly if there’s further positive news about the U.K. economy or clearer messaging from the BoE
     Monex USA
     .
     
  Technically, GBP/USD has been trading near support levels around 1.2550 and could resume an upward trend if it finds bullish momentum
  
  Forex
  .
  
  
  Risk considerations: If U.S. economic data turns out stronger than expected, or if the BoE signals a quicker easing cycle, this trade could face downside risk.
  
  

 

[Justin Passing]

You, er didn't read what he wrote on Snap, then! You were many hours late.

I didn't know the ChatGPT's were that up to date! Better try it.
Yes for forex, the algos work fairly well. A guy I know has developed algos for some specific stocks - apparenty they're sufficiently different to need that. On forex it's running at 34% growth on a year, which of course is huge.
He popped over to Toronto to see the TTV people, leaving it running.
I've seen video of a forex bot working, the thing was trading several times a second.

If you implement an algo with just a few moving averages and a couple of other things you do get a profit, but they aren't as efficient as 34%.. This guy has 108 indicators apparently. I assume they don't all input together.
Even a "sell & stay short after 1 red day, buy & keep after 1 green", works, because you get more winning days than losers if you get the "1 days " period about right overall. You could be unlucky sometimes of course. Try it on paper, it's quite impressive

Today was crap. I took a bit out of AMD short, but forgot a stoploss on 3xGLD in the ISA, so lost a few hundred before I noticed, which was annoying.

The SPY/XLK has been poor, I'm hoping the good Tesla and SK Hynix results will give it a few percent, but I may well go back to the bonds through the election. Utilities and Staples should be OK, but probably no better than the 1.5% a month the bonds are getting at the moment.

Apparently the CHinese want to buy gold, but it's too expensive now, however the hell they measure that. They should stop it dropping far, at least. That's what, 4% a week? Mad. P/e ratio infinite.

Platinum is interesting. Putin needed money and sold all the ready materials he had so he's runnning low. The other suppliers are S.A and Zimbabwe which aren't exactly reliable. Unless smog comes back into fashion, Cat Convs should keep the demand high, given that EV's have stalled.

Lithium is sad for some. Reserves magnified but processing capacity didn't. Prices dropped like a rock so the stuff's not worth new plants to mine it.

 

[Odds]

Yes, Trump Media and Technology Group

Want to know who will win the United States presidential election? Take a look at the stock market. Since 1928, the S&P 500 – which tracks the performance of 500 of the largest firms listed in the US – has pointed to the winner in 20 out of 24 elections, according to an analysis by financial services company LPL Financial. With less than two weeks until the election, the S&P 500 is up a healthy 11.8 percent since early August. Assuming US stocks do not take a dramatic tumble in the final days of the campaign, the historical trend clearly favours Harris.

However, caveats abound...Al Jazz

 

[Arbu]

You, er didn't read what he wrote on Snap, then! You were many hours late.

"Trading higher premarket after JMP Securities upgraded the stock from Market Perform to Outperform with a $17 price target. The upgrade was attributed to optimism about Snapchat's new "Simple Snapchat" design improving user engagement and ad revenue growth. The analyst expects the redesign, along with the introduction of Sponsored Snaps, to significantly enhance ad revenue. JMP also acknowledged risks surrounding the stock with regards to Snap’s content, algorithm issues, and heavy reliance on margin expansion."

Should have bought before the upgrade, silly me.

Here's to another big day in DJT stock.

 

[Arbu]

Closed out DJT at market open today as I was starting to see reasons to short it. Haven't shorted it (IG won't let me anyway). Did OK on the long trade - long from 3026 to 3316. In retrospect closing it out looks a bit panicked.