UK birth rate plummets

[Vinty]

Population decline is happening because not enough kids are being born to replace the people who are dying .
The fertility rate in the UK is at it lowest on record, it takes two people to produce a child, if the replacement rate is 1.5 then the population begins to shrink.
Without the mass immigration of recent years , the population of the have been in decline.

 

[Vinty]

While the West is in population decline, population growth in Africa is soaring.
One part of the world doesn't have enough children , while the other part of the world has too many children.
The solution is obvious but unacceptable.

 

[gas112]

India's population now surpassing China`s

 

[Justin Passing]

Fertility​

Fertility in colloquial terms refers the ability to have offspring. In demographic contexts, fertility refers to the actual production of offspring, rather than the physical capability to reproduce, which is termed fecundity. The fertility rate is the average number of children born during an individual's lifetime. In medicine, fertility refers to the ability to have children, and infertility refers to difficulty in reproducing naturally. Wikipedia

I imagine the use of the word "infertile" has lead to popular acceptance of only the one meaning for "fertile".

"Pubescent" is another one with shades of meaning.

If a woman can't have kids, is she unproductive, unbearable, inconceivable or impregnable?
For clarity, that was humour. It's an unfruitful debate.

 

[Odds]

While the West is in population decline, population growth in Africa is soaring.
One part of the world doesn't have enough children , while the other part of the world has too many children.
The solution is obvious but unacceptable.

Sterilisation?

 

[Diver Fred]

Less people to pay taxes and national insurance to pay the pensions of the old folk who worked all their lives paying tax and national insurance to pay the pensions of the old folk back then.

That does seem to be the usual answer. How to solve it - Promote better personal (private) pensions - I'm old enough to remember the adverts for pensions from Insurance companies; there is already a compulsion to have a personal pension as well as the state one for employees. That compulsion needs reinforcing and to better protection from the person paying into removing the cash before they are 60/65/state pension age.

With less people the bill to look after the older folk will/should reduce so less tax is needed for that.

I know it's not easy but it does need looking into seriously before we 'end up at each others throats' because of shortage of food production, countryside and sea side. One item that brings that home to me is the lack of fish life in the Med - in 40 years of travelling to and diving in various Mediterranean countries I've seen the fish life just about completely disappear.

 

[Justin Passing]

We're well behind on pensions. Oz has had a state "Super" scheme you contribute into, for years. Trouble is too many take it all out asap and get drunk on it, then have no money. Belgian system is pretty good - forget the details but it's more or less mandatory. State has to be in control of these things otherwise companies take the p.

 

[ajohn]

I had a look at pensions fairly recently. There are still a fair number drawing company ones and some now with a private one. Basic state pension - qualifying for the full amount appears to have been a problem for some. The time period needed has been shortened in the past.

Qualifying for the full amount
To get the full basic State Pension you need a certain number of qualifying years of National Insurance.

If you’re a man you usually need:

• 30 qualifying years if you were born between 1945 and 1951
• 44 qualifying years if you were born before 1945

If you’re a woman you usually need:

• 30 qualifying years if you were born between 1950 and 1953
• 39 qualifying years if were born before 1950

If you have fewer than the full number of qualifying years, your basic State Pension will be less than £169.50 per week.
I assume that this number is up to date.

The new basic state pension is different - it pays more and may have some sort of widow aspect.
If you’re a man born on or after 6 April 1951 or a woman born on or after 6 April 1953, you’ll get the new State Pension instead.

The old one is the contracted out of the state full one eg SERPS. Option usually taken if some one was in a company scheme. Those can cause problems with job changes. Leave and the entitlement doesn't change or transfer to a new one and not get 1 to 1 on years in the older scheme. Hobson's choice. I came across a number of people in that fix at a rather young age. Also talked to someone more recently who decided to leave it in the old fund. Had done all sorts of calcs and now realises he doesn't have enough to live on.

It all makes me wonder what sort of mess is out there. Also if it's possible to run a really good state system with a shrinking workforce. There has been things like a teachers pension fund run in the same sort of way as company ones were. Now - pass.

 

[securespark]

Japan has falling birth rates too, don't they?

 

[ajohn]

South Korea's fertility rate hit its lowest-ever point of 0.72 births per person in 2023. That's far below Japan, which currently sits at around 1.2 births per person, and well below the fertility replacement rate of 2.1.
Rather strange wording - persons have babies but had seen this comment earlier. Seoul is even lower.
That's a country that has a pretty recent economic explosion in a positive way

The current fertility rate for Taiwan in 2024 is 1.250 births per woman, a 1.13% increase from 2023. The fertility rate for Taiwan in 2023 was 1.236 births per woman, a 1.39% increase from 2022. The fertility rate for Taiwan in 2022 was 1.219 births per woman, a 1.41% increase from 2021.

The current fertility rate for U.S. in 2024 is 1.786 births per woman, a 0.11% increase from 2023. The fertility rate for U.S. in 2023 was 1.784 births per woman, a 0.11% increase from 2022. The fertility rate for U.S. in 2022 was 1.782 births per woman, a 0.06% increase from 2021.

The fertility rate for Russia in 2022 was 1.824 births per woman, a 0.05% increase from 2021.
The fertility rate for Russia in 2021 was 1.823 births per woman, a 0% increase from 2020.

China's total fertility rate, the average number of births per woman, was fairly flat at about 1.66 between 1991 and 2017 under China's one-child policy. But it then fell to 1.28 in 2020, to 1.08 in 2022 and is now around 1, which is way below the level of 2.1 generally thought necessary to sustain a population.1

Seems much of the world has the same problem. China's decision seems odd. Managed by technocrats.

The forecast of population growth in Africa is rather large. This reminds me of a youtuber, a professional that uses numerous example of forecasting ahead pointing out that something generally crops up to seriously reduce the projection.

 

[Justin Passing]

WHile you raise the subject, do you know what the

you need a certain number of qualifying years

numbers are, for those born after 51/53?
One can pay for a few years of missing contributons to make up a shortfall. It's not cheap - it's far more than a self employed payment would have been.

After I stopped normal work I still paid the s/e amount, which whas tiny, to get the full pension. WIfe didn't and she was unable to buy enough years.

That was a mistake, but nowhere near as big as not keeping a watch on where the private pension providers were putting the accumulating funds, at stupidly low rates. They fleece, en masse, imho. They amount they don't get you on the investment also far outweighs the tax advantage of the "pension" status. It's disgusting. I'm getting people I know to look at what their pension holders are getting for them. All have been horrified so far. Numbers like 3-4% where 2-3-4 times that would have been just as safe. Ten to twenty times as much with a little more attention.

 

[JohnD]

I had a look at pensions fairly recently. There are still a fair number drawing company ones and some now with a private one. Basic state pension - qualifying for the full amount appears to have been a problem for some. The time period needed has been shortened in the past.

Qualifying for the full amount
To get the full basic State Pension you need a certain number of qualifying years of National Insurance.

Surely it's 35 years now for "full" New State Pension. Request your forecast (now).

The new State Pension

How to get and claim your State Pension, State Pension age - for men born on or after 6 April 1951 and women born on or after 6 April 1953.

www.gov.uk

The people of ages you mention all reached pension age years ago.

It's a good idea to get a copy of your NI record early. I found early years were missing or inaccurate. It will show you if you can pay in to catch up for some missing or short years. This is not necessarily worthwhile. It does not matter once you reach or exceed enough years for the "full" amount.

There will be a deduction for Contracted Out years, if any. I found the calculation of the deduction was not explained and I had to puzzle it out.

For my Personal Pensions and SIPP, I have always chosen my own funds and investments, and performance has been more than satisfactory. Perhaps I was lucky.

 

[StephenStephen]

I learnt back in school about the population S curve, though it doesn't seem to be a term used much now, judging by my quick web search.

The theory is that you start with high infant mortality, less abundant nutrition and healthcare, and little empowerment or education opportunities for women.
So you get high birth rate and high infant mortality = slow growth.

Then you get better healthcare and nutrition, but there's still a high birth rate, so lower infant mortality, so you get faster and faster population growth.

Then you get education and empowerment of women, (and availability of contraception). So the power in decisions about birth rate start to move to educated empowered women, with access to contraception. So population growth slows, eventually stops, and then goes into a slow population decrease.

So that's the theory as I remember it.

It happens everywhere, and is primarily driven by resource availability. It's happened faster in the global north primarily because we've taken and kept control of global resources.

Predictions are that global population will go into a slow fall.

Off course all that depends on us not triggering nuclear winter, and takes no account(as far as I know) of the unfolding climate and ecological disaster we're creating.

Projections of population growth - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[StephenStephen]

From that Wikipedia article - this seems to be the actual evidenced primary driver of slowing population growth:

"Other organizations project lower levels of population growth in Africa, based particularly on improvement in women's education and successful implementation of family planning.[11]"

 

[ajohn]

Pensions - I was wondering why some can get support to increase there state pension to the full level. The qualifying period was reduced as they knew that many would not achieve the old one. It no longer corresponded to an expected standard period of work. You might choose to view that as 40 years. Noises where made about the degree of the reduction but that's politics. Some thought it aught to need less years.

So one reason can be failing to reach the qualifying years.

The other odd ball is being contracted out of the full state pension as in a company one. Typically that costs 7.5% of salary on a 2/3 decent one. It also typically involved the same from the company until pension holidays came about. These funds are still around. There is a way they can be closed after a fashion but generally no new members is the solution. Now and again we hear that some fund doesn't have enough money in it. Also of companies that are no longer around that did have pension schemes.

LOL So I am still wondering.