Ukraine counter offensive

[ajohn]

Feels like they're waiting until next year?

Russia used bombs to celebrate the oil cap introduction, Alj knew it had happened but were not given any details of damage, Only report I heard.

A strike on power in Odessa over the weekend has been reported by the usual channels. No power for lots.

USA took part in some sort of talks with them in Turkey. Their arrival was a surprise. Given the questions some reporters are asking in the west they may think something political is going on.

An interesting report some weeks ago. A hit much closer to Kyiv's political area than usual,

Some other reports. Spin, significant or not. Not possible to tell. BBC Moscow reporter feels he is now seen as their enemy there and finding it hard to work. Russians used to be friendly etc. Shots of soldiers in cellars etc. Could be arranged. My grandad told me how trench warfare worked. If the whistle was blown and people didn't get out and fight they were shot including a few officers.There will always be some that don't want to fight. War in Ukraine mentioned a couple of attempts by Ukraine to go in vaguely similar directions that were not passed by their government.

Europe. Seems we will be in need of Chinese diesel. Rush for gas expected next year ie short supply again. More are now mentioning $1t Ukraine rebuilding costs.

Overall to me it sounds like Russia's war machine is still working. How long that will continue - pass.

 

[Odds]

Russia used bombs to celebrate the oil cap introduction, Alj knew it had happened but were not given any details of damage, Only report I heard.

A strike on power in Odessa over the weekend has been reported by the usual channels. No power for lots.

USA took part in some sort of talks with them in Turkey. Their arrival was a surprise. Given the questions some reporters are asking in the west they may think something political is going on.

An interesting report some weeks ago. A hit much closer to Kyiv's political area than usual,

Some other reports. Spin, significant or not. Not possible to tell. BBC Moscow reporter feels he is now seen as their enemy yjere and finding it hard to work. Russians used to be friendly etc. Shots of soldiers in cellars etc. Could be arranged. My grandad told me how trench warfare worked. If the whistle was blown and people didn't get out and fight they were shot including a few officers.There will always be some that don't want to fight. War in Ukraine mentioned a couple of attempts by Ukraine to go in vaguely similar directions that were not passed by their government.

Europe. Seems we will be in need of Chinese diesel. Rush for gas expected next year ie short supply again. More are now mentioning $1t Ukraine rebuilding costs.

Overall to me it sounds like Russia's war machine is still working. How long that will continue - pass.

Turkey is trying once more to establish a 30Km 'DMZ' along their border with Syria after the bomb attack a few weeks ago. They're blaming the PKK and trying to make Moscow tell the Kurds to stop the attacks. Fat Chance. Russia doesn't recognise their group, as it's a Marxist revolutionary group and Putin's love of all things Stalin is well known.
The Yanks have probably gone over there to discuss that issue and may pass warnings on to Moscow about missile strikes on civilian infrastructure, while the Russians will warn them about supplying Patriot's to Ukraine.
It's all gone Cold War as the winter freeze sets in.

Did your Grandfather fight on the Western Front?

 

[ajohn]

Did your Grandfather fight on the Western Front?

I may have been 5 when he told me and can't recollect all details other than he was wounded and promoted to corporal. My brother came across that as well when researching family history. It was earlier than WWII.

 

[JohnD]

They are rumours not medical history

Quite so.

But equally, you have no evidence to declare that his physical and mental health are good.

 

[ajohn]

Turkey is trying once more to establish a 30Km 'DMZ'

Think back. Turkey was rather upset when the USA used Kurds for fighting / body bags against IS types. There are good and bad Kurds.

Anyway new report from Ukraine. Kyiv shot down all 13 drones in an attack. One damaged an administrative building. Not a 1st even with missiles. That's the report anyway, damaged building in the background. Reported that Ukraine is seriously short of power and if I heard the number correctly needs $1b aid around 40% to restore power, rest for food etc??? Maybe more info around than here

Countries at Paris aid conference pledge €1 billion for Ukraine

Countries gathered at an aid conference for Ukraine in Paris have pledged aid worth around €1 billion to help the war-hit country this winter, France's foreign minister said on Tuesday. Follow our blog…

www.france24.com

 

[Odds]

Think back. Turkey was rather upset when the USA used Kurds for fighting / body bags against IS types. There are good and bad Kurds.

Anyway new report from Ukraine. Kyiv shot down all 13 drones in an attack. One damaged an administrative building. Not a 1st even with missiles. That's the report anyway, damaged building in the background. Reported that Ukraine is seriously short of power and if I heard the number correctly needs $1b aid around 40% to restore power, rest for food etc??? Maybe more info around than here

Countries at Paris aid conference pledge €1 billion for Ukraine

Countries gathered at an aid conference for Ukraine in Paris have pledged aid worth around €1 billion to help the war-hit country this winter, France's foreign minister said on Tuesday. Follow our blog…

www.france24.com

Kurdish militia fought ISIS because the Islamic Fundamentalists were invading territory that has historically been Kurdish. They provided front line troops in the fight against ISIS and America was happy for them to take the brunt of casualties as nobody in the States had any stomach for further fighting in the region.
Then America dropped them like a bad smell, left the area to the Turks who insisted on establishing the DMZ to protect its own border. The commanding officers were ashamed to do this but had no choice.
It'd been an alliance of co-operation and America didn't 'use' Kurds but relied upon them to do their own dirty work.
No western government has given them anything in their long struggle for independence - and they're keeping their distance from the Armenian argument with Azerbaijan, too, just in case Russian toes are stepped on...but Ukraine gets all the help it wants because of the strategic necessity of doing so.

 

[Justin Passing]

It's all rumours about Puitin's health as far as I've read, but the pictures show something is changed: (I know it's the Sun but I'm assuming they don't fake videos yet)

Putin's descent from Judo strongman to feeble ‘cancer victim’ in 3 years

VLADIMIR Putin has descended from a macho strongman to a bloated butcher who struggles to walk in the space of just three years, pictures reveal. Since first becoming Russia’s president in 20…

www.thesun.co.uk

 

[Justin Passing]

On the gound, there dn't seem to be big movements or attacks going on, apart from incremental movements of the fronts.
The "russian war machine" isn't doing anything much other than firing missiles and using (Iranian etc) drones.
I wonder how effective "shooting down missiles" really is. How many of the UKr ant-aircraft missiles land somehwere and do damage (as in Poland). Dunno. How many do they REALLY stop? Dunno. But we're only hearing the Ukraine side.

Ukraine is asking for large power transformers. I don't suppose they're the sort of thing many would hold in stock. Portable gennys can only go so far.
I'm expecting to hear more of strikes on fuel supplies.

 

[ajohn]

The "russian war machine" isn't doing anything much other than firing missiles and using (Iranian etc) drones.

Yet reports crop up saying fighting in the east is fierce. Probably mostly shells.m You mentioned slow Russian gains. Nothing new about that unless Russia withdraws Ukraine have the same problem.

The recent withdrawal behind a decent body of water. A bit of a mixed bag for both sides.

 

[IT Minion]

The war is in a grinding mode at the moment. Ukraine is still reorganising and preparing for another offensive after Kherson and the Russians are still getting mobilised troops to the front.

Ukraine has been rotating combat formations around Bahkmut and Wagner forces have been slowly grinding their way forward under murderous fire.

 

[ajohn]

Ukraine has been rotating combat formations around Bahkmut and Wagner forces have been slowly grinding their way forward under murderous fire.

BBC have an unusual reporter they sent there. No camera crew but toured the front. He then reported what he has seen. East, fierce fighting and high casualty rates on both sides. Concrete structures on the other side of the water Russia has retreated behind. Those can be effective and reduce the quality of the troops needed. WWII, worked out except where they were attacked from the wrong side eg France.

 

[Doug99]

The United States is finalising plans to send its sophisticated Patriot air defence system to Ukraine following an urgent request from Kyiv, which wants more robust weapons to shoot down Russian missiles and drones that have devastated the country’s energy infrastructure and left millions without heating in the bitter cold of winter.

One of the US officials told the Reuters news agency that Ukrainian forces would probably be trained in Germany before the Patriot equipment was delivered. Vindman said the training could take several months. According to officials, the US plan would be to send one Patriot battery. A truck-mounted Patriot battery includes up to eight launchers, each of which can hold four missiles.
The entire system, which includes a phased array radar, a control station, computers and generators, typically requires about 90 soldiers to operate and maintain. However, only three soldiers are needed to actually fire it, according to the US Army.

@AlJazeera.com

Training Ukranians on how to set to work and operate the Patriot could just take a few weeks rather than months. I assume all the electronics are modularised, so running repairs and diagnostics could be talked through with US personnel via comms links.

 

[ajohn]

Ukraine has complained that they are in need of barrels. Seems stuff has to go back to Poland for refits. Too much shelling so wearing out.

Other kit???

 

[Odds]

The Iceman Cometh...(Steve Rosenberg)

(Brainwashing: part two.)

Chita lies 3,000 miles (4,830km) east of Moscow. The local authorities decided that militarised ice sculptures would be an appropriate decoration for this festive season; a way of encouraging a patriotic new year. Most of the people I talk to on the square approve.

"We've got friends who've been mobilised and sent to fight there. We worry about them. We call to see if they're OK. But whatever we may think of our government, our motherland is our motherland. If we don't defend it, who will?"

"Defend it from what? From whom?" I ask Ludmila. After all, on 24 February it was Russia that launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Not the other way around.
"Defend it from Nazis. There are a lot of them around," Ludmila replies. "Russia's being attacked on all fronts, including with LGBT propaganda. They're trying to force this upon us. We reject these alien ideas. We embrace Russian values. It's hard for me to explain this in words. I just feel it."

Russians never used to say these kinds of things to me on the street. They never talked about feeling threatened by "Nazis" in Ukraine, or about the need to fight for so-called "Russian values". It's one of the biggest changes I've noticed here this year.

Having established total control of the media landscape in Russia, Kremlin propaganda has managed to convince many Russians that their country is now in some existential battle with the West. In conversations here now, I often hear people repeat - almost word for word - the anti-Ukrainian and anti-Western rhetoric they hear on Russian TV channels.

 

[Odds]

‘We were allowed to be slaughtered’: calls by Russian forces intercepted​

@TheGuardian.com

[A] former Russian official said...“Soldiers get a quick crash course on how not to give away sensitive information, but it is mostly for show,” the official said. “The commanders pretend to teach [the course] and the soldiers pretend to listen...Even now, we see that soldiers continue to use social media and tell their wives and mothers about the war, sometimes exposing their location. There is simply no discipline and it will only get worse now that they have mobilised 300,000 people who will be barely trained. Mobilised soldiers will be terrified of being in a war zone, and naturally, they will try to call home.”

The former Kremlin official said Putin was learning the hard way that his army was in dire need of modernisation and that the top-down Soviet style model was not fit for purpose.
“The army doctrine is based on punishment, so soldiers get penalised if they mess up, but no one is trying to prevent them from giving away information in the first place,” the source said. “Screw-ups will happen until they change the whole philosophy.”