Ukraine counter offensive

[IT Minion]

In actual news, Ukraine has devoted at least some of its NATO kit to push towards Melitopol. They've made some advances, but it doesn't seem like a general breakthrough yet.

They've damaged the Ukrainian railway route into (or out of) Crimea and they've hit facilities in Crimea with accurate missile strikes over the last few days, including A command post and a radar station.

If Ukraine can reach Melitopol then they'll probably be able to roll back the forces to the West. Russia may or may not have the mobility and command and control to retreat in good order to Crimea.

 

[Notch7]

Reports that Maj Gen Sergei Goryachev (Russian) has been killed in a bomb strike

 

[Stivino]

Oh dear.

 

[transam]

Well this wat will continue untill either Putin gets thrown out in some coup ( unlikely)

Or some negotiated settlement ( def
Likely)

The Ukraine are un likely to get all there territory back imo

Tis the way it will be

 

[IT Minion]

Or it'll settle into a low intensity, mostly static, war just like it did after 2014.

 

[Justin Passing]

Or it'll settle into a low intensity, mostly static, war just like it did after 2014.

That would lead to a R win by attrition, yes?

 

[transam]

Negotiated settlement ?

Couple years of stability

Ukraine than join NATO

Than if the Russians poke there nose in

Gloves off and

World war 3 / Armageddon ?

In which case a couple of missiles go astray on Tehran ??

 

[blup]

Russsia is in this for the long term, so the west and the USA are too. Poot in or his successor hope USA republicans will go lukewarm on it and strong arm Ukraine into a settlement. That would be a mistake and weaken Europe.

Blup

 

[carmanmemoranda]

Russsia is in this for the long term, so the west and the USA are too. Poot in or his successor hope USA republicans will go lukewarm on it and strong arm Ukraine into a settlement. That would be a mistake and weaken Europe.

Blup

And yet another reason for a united Europe.

 

[Odds]

Minimal gains along the frontline suggest Ukrainian troops are finding weak points in Russian lines hard to exploit for a breakthrough, so far. Reports of gaining 500 meters around Bakhmut reveal just how difficult the fighting is and in these circumstances armoured support is going to be crucial but they seem to be reluctant to send in advanced tanks, like the Leopard and Challenger to break down resistance. They're going to lose a lot of troops in these assaults and it'll be a real test of morale and the will to keep going in the face of determined Russian defence.
Putin's reassigned command to the Defence Ministry and demoted Wagner Group leader as a warning not to rock the boat. Testing times on both sides.

 

[Charlie George]

Prigozhin has accused the russians of a missile attack on it's base, and lots of rumours of internal fighting between wagner and the russian MOD, roadblocks and military deployments in russian cities tonight.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1672348230313553920

https://twitter.com/x/status/1672363421604491264

 

[transam]

Yes all does not deem
Well with in the Wagner Russian army relationship

It seems that the Wagner group are threatening military action against the Russian state ??

Russia has labelled the Wagner bloke as a traitor ???

 

[Notch7]

Ukraine bomb Chongar bridge, a key Russian supply route.

 

[Brigadier]

Russia imploding?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-66006142

 

[Odds]

Not imploding, i'd say they're making sure any hint of sedition is stamped out immediately. Prigozhin's words will resonate with anti-Putin factions and stir up a hornet's nest. I think the man has battle-stress after spending the winter feeding his troops into that meat grinder in Bakhmut.