Ukraine counter offensive

[Pat ex]

@transam - China's first operational carrier, the Laioning was built in Crimea and originally named Varyag. When the Russians left in 1991 there was no money to complete it, so Ukraine eventually sold it to China in 1998.

LOL
How long ago was that.

Err.....hmmmm, .... lend me some fingers.
err, hmmm 2022 - 1998 = err where's my calculator

 

[carmanmemoranda]

According to the perceived wisdom of some, international agreements cannot be renegotiated.
There is no way the EU will want a trade war with the UK while Putin is at large in Ukraine.

Are you aware what an international agreement is ?

They can be renegotiated, but why would we want to do that if it was a good agreement ? But they cant be ignored or overridden by 1 side without consequences.

 

[IT Minion]

Its not about destroying targets, it's about destroying everything. "Rapid dominance is a military strategy based on the use of overwhelming power and spectacular displays of force to paralyse the enemy's perception of the battlefield and destroy their will to fight". i.e. Shock and awe, Hiroshima-style.

Putin may wish to test the west. He has after all used radioactive and nerve agents on Nato countries he's not at war with.

Destroying everything either needs a lot of tactical nukes or it needs strategic ones. Both risk escalation more than Russian doctrine planned use.

 

[carmanmemoranda]

Its not about destroying targets, it's about destroying everything. "Rapid dominance is a military strategy based on the use of overwhelming power and spectacular displays of force to paralyse the enemy's perception of the battlefield and destroy their will to fight". i.e. Shock and awe, Hiroshima-style.

Putin may wish to test the west. He has after all used radioactive and nerve agents on Nato countries he's not at war with.

I dont think Putin is wanting to test the west right now, not directly on a battlefield.
But he may be prepared to do something to draw a line.
Cyber warfare, another avenue though.

 

[Pat ex]

RUSI crunching the numbers:

. 'The winner in a prolonged war between two near-peer powers is still based on which side has the strongest industrial base. A country must either have the manufacturing capacity to build massive quantities of ammunition or have other manufacturing industries that can be rapidly converted to ammunition production. Unfortunately, the West no longer seems to have either.'

. 'behind the Russian invasion stands the world’s manufacturing capital – China. As the US begins to expend more and more of its stockpiles to keep Ukraine in the war, China has yet to provide any meaningful military assistance to Russia. The West must assume that China will not allow Russia to be defeated, especially due to a lack of ammunition. '

Full article here.

So far, a defeat of Russia is not a defined objective, just the withdrawal of Russia from Ukraine.

 

[wellyfish]

Interesting to see that welly believes China will join in Putin's clusterflick as his military supporter.

Putin hopes so.

China has expressed its displeasure at his incompetent own-goal

I think China will support Putin. How far they go with their support remains to be seen.

There's little doubt they are set on building an alliance to challenge the USA hegemony.

 

[Odds]

I think China will support Putin. How far they go with their support remains to be seen.

There's little doubt they are set on building an alliance to challenge the USA hegemony.

China and Russia have collaborated when it suited their mutual interests but never officially become allied to the same degree as NATO in the west. China thinks Russia have mistimed this conflict and totally miscalculated the opposing forces, and it seems they're right.

 

[wellyfish]

Well, I don't see mass starvation or rioting in the streets in the EU. Do you? Most of the EU has surpassed the 80% reserves marej=k required by November, they are going to build more LNG berthing facilities in short order, and renewables plus nuclear are getting one hell of a boost, so just what can Russia do in the future?

Strawman.

We'll see what happens with LNG berthing and, more importantly, sourcing.

Renewables and particularly nuclear take time so the issue is what to do in the meantime.

Russia doesn't have to do anything but keep the taps turned off until it decides not to.

 

[Pat ex]

Its not about destroying targets, it's about destroying everything. "Rapid dominance is a military strategy based on the use of overwhelming power and spectacular displays of force to paralyse the enemy's perception of the battlefield and destroy their will to fight". i.e. Shock and awe, Hiroshima-style.

Putin may wish to test the west. He has after all used radioactive and nerve agents on Nato countries he's not at war with.

Destroying everything either needs a lot of tactical nukes or it needs strategic ones. Both risk escalation more than Russian doctrine planned use.

As IT Minion says, Hiroshima was a strategic nuclear weapon, not a tactical one.

 

[Pat ex]

Strawman.

We'll see what happens with LNG berthing and, more importantly, sourcing.

Renewables and particularly nuclear take time so the issue is what to do in the meantime.

Russia doesn't have to do anything but keep the taps turned off until it decides not to.

While the taps are turned off the income stream stops.

 

[wellyfish]

While the taps are turned off the income stream stops.

All that means is Russia isn't continuing to accumulate Euros. It can't use those Euros anyway as the EU have imposed sanctions.

Russia, like every other monetary sovereign country, doesn't need an income stream.

 

[motorbiking]

As IT Minion says, Hiroshima was a strategic nuclear weapon, not a tactical one.

I think you are missing the point, its a "here is a taste of what you could get, now lets sit down and talk about how much of your country I will take and the demilitarisation of the rest". Btw Little Boy was around 13kt yield - very much in the tactical class by today's standards.

I'm not convinced that Putin has tried everything to win the war. I think he may well consider a final destructive blow, before withdrawing. His goal now appears to be to cause so much destruction that Ukraine will be screwed for decades.

 

[Pat ex]

All that means is Russia isn't continuing to accumulate Euros. It can't use those Euros anyway as the EU have imposed sanctions.

Russia, like every other monetary sovereign country, doesn't need an income stream.

It does need income if it wants to buy stuff from international suppliers.

Let's not get into yet another of your economic discussions again.

 

[Odds]

...I'm not convinced that Putin has tried everything to win the war. I think he may well consider a final destructive blow, before withdrawing. His goal now appears to be to cause so much destruction that Ukraine will be screwed for decades.

And by extension, drain western resources further as they'll have to spend billions in reconstruction of Ukraine's economy and infrastructure, while Russia deals with ongoing sanctions: spreading the joy far and wide, he is.

 

[IT Minion]

I think China will support Putin. How far they go with their support remains to be seen.

There's little doubt they are set on building an alliance to challenge the USA hegemony.

But in the Eastern theatre they have the potential to become clearly superior to Russia, one of their traditional rivals.

And there would be consequences, their limited support for Russia has been the main cause of the improved US relationship with Taiwan.