Ukraine, Light At the End Of The Tunnel, THE END GAME

[ajohn]

The talks now have sub committees. War continues as would be expected. Cease fires can have consequences for both sides and evaporate rapidly when talks fail.

Not to be left out Norway is hosting NATO war games. Sounds like it could be a pretty big one.

Russian wants - several have been mentioned. NATO always and Crimea. They are taking over more and more of the east. Seen as slow but this isn't another Iraq type war.

There is a 35hr curfew in Kiev and shooting going on in the city. Saboteurs or pro Russian - pass. Shelling from both sides.

 

[albaPhenom]

Thank you but IMO just the Crimea will not work as a lot of blood has been spilt over Donbas and ongoing more than 8 years and areas vastly pro Russian and very bad feelings. Ideally, Ukraine gets everything back but its not going to happen.

Must dash, thank you.

Let's consider a hypothetical.

Imagine the UK began feeding "separatists" into County Monaghan and County Donegal in the Republic of Ireland and they began bombing and shooting the local government forces there, after 8 years of this the UK announce the Independence of Donegal and Monaghan and then launch an illegal invasion on that premise, pushing tanks and forces on Dublin while intentionally targeting the civilian population along the way.

Do you believe that Republic of Ireland in the face of this aggression should consider a peace deal where the UK retains these two Counties, agrees to demilitarise and not seek assistance from any foreign power?

Is this a good deal for the Irish in your opinion?

 

[Mottie]

Unlike others I don't think I've just posted quotes and links.

Quote from link
"Russia said on Wednesday that some parts of a possible peace deal with Ukraine were close to being agreed after Kyiv agreed to discuss neutrality, raising hopes of an end to the biggest war in Europe since World War Two."

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...s-neutrality-Ukraine-seriously-discussed.html

 

[transam]

Eventually it will all end but we are a good way from that


Putin has to be seen to negotiate

but at the end of the day he cannot be seen to compromise

some in here Humantarian buys into putins BS

And persists in spreading it
( clown)

Bloke has never really understood what is going on from day one

 

[The Samaritan]

The bottom line, the only "good deal" or outcome I would say if Putin left the country.

It's sad to hear that possibly 14k plus young Russian soldiers had died and most of whom wanted none of this
just like the poor people of the Ukraine.

Sadly, as IRL, here on the forums many blinkered people some of whom are malicious and clearly not referring to you.
These people don't want peace or more often don't understand compromise when you have not beaten your enemy
with a clear victory.

I do blame the UK and USA in particular for winding up the easily led leaders of Ukriane. How would you feel if
you felt your next door was being wound up against your way of life.
Sadly, there was bad blood as always between the two side, miniorty and
often the extremists on the fringes make the loudest nosie and much
can go wrong with false flag attacks even in a ceasefire.

During the elections, I think usa gov officials were visiting Ukraine imagine Russians doing that during the scots indy vote.

Whatever is right or wrong there will have to be compromises just as I posted and I hope putin is killed when the Russians get the ral news and
someone strong is the new leader as strong leaders do not need to resort to killings.

Let to me, I'd lock up most poltiicians,

Must dash

 

[ajohn]

Imagine the UK began feeding "separatists" into

Rather warped view in terms of Ukraine. Fact of life the separatists existed and lived there. Even Odessa had problems and pro Russian do live there. What is generally happening in a number of places is that the invasion is putting pro Russians off them.

 

[transam]

The bottom line, the only "good deal" or outcome I would say if Putin left the country.

It's sad to hear that possibly 14k plus young Russian soldiers had died and most of whom wanted none of this
just like the poor people of the Ukraine.

Sadly, as IRL, here on the forums many blinkered people some of whom are malicious and clearly not referring to you.
These people don't want peace or more often don't understand compromise when you have not beaten your enemy
with a clear victory.

I do blame the UK and USA in particular for winding up the easily led leaders of Ukriane. How would you feel if
you felt your next door was being wound up against your way of life.
Sadly, there was bad blood as always between the two side, miniorty and
often the extremists on the fringes make the loudest nosie and much
can go wrong with false flag attacks even in a ceasefire.

During the elections, I think usa gov officials were visiting Ukraine imagine Russians doing that during the scots indy vote.

Whatever is right or wrong there will have to be compromises just as I posted and I hope putin is killed when the Russians get the ral news and
someone strong is the new leader as strong leaders do not need to resort to killings.

Let to me, I'd lock up most poltiicians,

Must dash

left to me I would throw you out the country

confiscate yer house in order to house ukranians fleeing the war

and transfer them polish planes to the Ukraine

along with a load of other offensive weapons

appeasing Russia / putin would not happen

 

[transam]

And the Chinese would be told
Privately

keep yer noses out or nuclear weapons will be stationed in Taiwan

see how they like them apples

Arm Japan with nukes as well

 

[The Samaritan]

Rather warped view in terms of Ukraine. Fact of life the separatists existed and lived there. Even Odessa had problems and pro Russian do live there. What is generally happening in a number of places is that the invasion is putting pro Russians off them.

Sad but true as even some of those that bang on about being separated from X will be better. Maybe better but not via bloodshed.

It will never happen but people need to use that brain cell God gifted them and look around the world at politicians, religious people and those with extreme views/solutions.

Once a ceasefire is agreed and it will be just as I have said. Sadly, even more, people will be hurt and may have even more extreme views because they lost loved ones and it will be more difficult.

If I was to be made leader of Ukraine - I'd rebuild and recognise the problems before this full war and revisit restrictions made on the Russian languages in certain settings and remove items from the school curriculum items that offend a large part of my population. For sure there will be large miniority
that wont moves on just like NI, etc but to live together and have a safer, better life you have to. I'd build up the defences of the country and instil into the educational system that politicians should never be trusted and a easy, simple way to change the leadership once a year and possibly made of to represnet the countries popualtion

In england, things have been removed from the educational system as well as added in order to help communities integrate. As long as its done in a balanced manner, nothing wrong with that.

I'd also seek the death penalty for those that have committed war crimes around the world just not the Ukraine and tell outside politicians to go and F themselves and ensure that we did not depend too heavility on one group of clowns.

 

[JP_]

The bottom line, the only "good deal" or outcome I would say if Putin left the country.

Outstanding analysis. Nobody else has considered that outcome!

 

[ajohn]

and transfer them polish planes to the Ukraine

along with a load of other offensive weapons

Since 2014 there seems to have been a limit on what weapons the west will put into Ukraine and still was during the run up. Goggle can be used to look back in time and it seems the same limitations were applied then. A question was asked about heavy artillery - no. This goes back to the start of the Donbas war. I posted a couple of Rand links covering weapons and also the ethnicity of the resistance in Donbas according to Kiev's own analysis. It mentioned 2 dates when Russian troops were involved.

The choice of weapons sent is a bit odd. Air defence would obviously be needed if Russia becomes involved. While not giving them these may make some sort of sense there is no reason why they shouldn't have been trained to use them. The main problem is not so much aircraft it's cruise missiles. Laser guided missiles are mostly used to hit smaller targets from the air. Other missiles to take out other aircraft. Carpet bombing doesn't really figure any more. Tanks - the usual thing is used to take out other tanks. They can also be used to clear troops and help get them in. Give them those and what would happen?

So ask yourself why arms have been limited.

I posted a link to a Pentagon's view of the latest version of Russian troop and equipment deployment. The convoy - well it eventually started doing something.

The satellite view of destruction. One channel expanded it out. Bit too quickly really but it showed some areas of destruction. We are getting stuff with max impact and a lot of war talk from all sides.

No fly zones. Seems cruise missiles have a range of up to 5,000 miles. Even Israel's super duper defences can not take out all of Hamas's home made stuff.

Turkey and Russia talks live currently but not clear what they mean. In Moscow.

 

[The Samaritan]

Outstanding analysis....

Ok!!
========
About add an edit to my OP based on ifo I have received from a cyber associate in Russia. On state tv in Russia, there are open hints that part of the package to a ceasefire is "removing the illegal sanctions." In my knowledge that will happen but not immediately but a behind the scenes agreement to remove them within weeks or a couple of months, possibly.

NB: During the cuban missile crisis I've read that the USSR agreed to back down on the basis that the USA quietly remove their nukes from Turkey and they did a couple of months later and it was not widely reported

.

 

[JohnD]

NB: During the cuban missile crisis I've read that the USSR agreed to back down on the basis that the USA quietly remove their nukes from Turkey and they did a couple of months later and it was not widely reported

I can't imagine where you heard a story like that.

There is a myth in USA that the Cuba crisis was solved by Russia giving in to Kennedy's Tough Guy threats of nuclear war. This is very popular among American Hawks, especially Trumpists.

The truth it that it was solved by negotiation, and US agreeing to remove its equivalent nuclear missiles from Turkey in a quid pro quo.

Russia has just as many hawks as US, and currently they are in control of the state, since they include Nationalist Putin and his group of (mostly ex-KGB) "Siloviki" hard men, mostly around 70 and all old Cold Warriors. They are also Plutocrats of enormous wealth, looted from the nation.

his inner circle does not include Army generals or politicians, who do not have power, dare not combine, and are therefore incapable of deposing him. The run of the mill oligarchs have no power and are liable to be imprisoned and/or stripped of their wealth and/or assassinated if they cause trouble.

"Inside Putin’s circle — the real Russian elite | Free to read" FT.com

 

[transam]

According to reports ??

one of putins demands is that Ukraine limits its armed forces ?

Apparently this demand has been turned down ???

the one demand that should be made imo to end the war is for

The with drawl of all troops and for Putin to resign


And in the words of Wallace ( Mel Gibson) in brave heart

Putin should go to Ukraine walk onto the battlefield put his head between his legs and kiss his own arris

 

[albaPhenom]

Rather warped view in terms of Ukraine. Fact of life the separatists existed and lived there. Even Odessa had problems and pro Russian do live there. What is generally happening in a number of places is that the invasion is putting pro Russians off them.

The “civil war” was 100% orchestrated and supported by Russia, this is not warped at all.